Full time through winter in search of new life

Last update for this week..

Post yesterdays 0.25% ECB base rate rise, today we received our first written, confirmed offer of finance. 4.27% fixed for 15yr. 5k ‘hypotheque’ or in english mortgage documentation/arrangement fee and 0.348% mandatory insurance cost. Total 4.63%. There we are, the days of the cheap Euro mortgage that others have talked about earlier in the thread are gone.

This was the same bank who last month indicated that 4.1% base was possible, they seem to have tried to pass on as little of the ECB base rate rise as possible, as this rate is only very marginally above the base rate. They have also included the no early repayment penalty clause I have insisted on, this means we could refinance when rates come down.

We expect another two offers tomorrow and Monday, then the final two ten days after that.

Having received an offer of finance we now have 7 working days to communicate to the vendor the 1st offer under French law. We are obliged under French law to obtain two competing offers. Assuming the one tomorrow is also way beyond the 3.75 limit we are no longer under obligation to buy.

We have developed a plan to obtain hard quotes on some key investment stuff, and have been walking the site each evening to check occupancy. With this we will develop some forecasts proving that the site will not do well this year. Whether it’s the July weather (terrible, raining, cloudy), the cost of living crisis (c) BBC, or the diminished reputation I don’t know, but fact is it is only on track to make about 66-70% of what it made last year. This is in start contrast to all the endless assurances of the vendor that he was on track to make the same as last year. Seems he’s a bit of a billy bullsh*tter. We begin to understand why the staff are so disinterested/lazy/malevolent.

Armed with the estimates for all the additional investment, the performance analysis of this summer and the extreme and now non binding cost of finance we plan to organise a meeting with the vendors in approx 9 days to formally request a price reduction. We know this won’t go down well and suspect we will have to up sticks pronto, a shame as we are developing our ideas daily and refining where we need to spend cash.

We both still love the place, despite all the huge required work, and we really believe we can really make this thing fly, but we just can’t afford to overpay, especially at the rebased 1st year income start point, the extra investment and the high interest rates.

Wish us luck !
 
Fingers crossed then that they see reason. I can't believe they'll get any other offers. Good luck.
Yeah good luck on this one (y) (y) I know you don't want any advice. But I would go in with 700 000 to match the reduction in income.
Can't see anyone else bidding more ,then you would be talking.
Tell him the bank value it at 600000 but you are willing to offer 7 out of your own money.
Bargain like a Frenchman.
Yeah rooting for you on that👍👍👍
 
Yeah good luck on this one (y) (y) I know you don't want any advice. But I would go in with 700 000 to match the reduction in income.
Can't see anyone else bidding more ,then you would be talking.
Tell him the bank value it at 600000 but you are willing to offer 7 out of your own money.
Bargain like a Frenchman.
Yeah rooting for you on that👍👍👍
That’s maybe a tad optimistic… :)
Original asking price was €1.6m. We achieved a 10% reduction after weeks of discussion and 3 rejected offers. I can’t see them upping the 10% discount to 60% somehow. The business alone, following base accountancy rules, is already worth more than that. Push too hard and we know they will go back to the market.

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what is it we say???

he who dares, Rodders?
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Well many of us are rooting for you to get to a place you want to be comfortable with

out of curiosity do you have a Plan B with another site you had seen as backup? Or is it back to looking at new ones again?

Good luck to you both

Carol

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How are you going to play it? I would outline the facts and ask for comment on how they see things given the new circumstances. Maybe meet the owners in an unofficial, relaxed environment to go through it all, give them room to consider without having anyone else around to harden any initial reactions they have to the facts, they will know them anyway, I'm guessing it's their weekly wage. Saying no with an audience is harder to back track on, even though reality eventually kicks in..

Your journeys fascinating, a campsite is something i would love to own....... the ups and downs of getting over the line or walking away, Very entertaining. (y)
 
That’s maybe a tad optimistic… :)
Original asking price was €1.6m. We achieved a 10% reduction after weeks of discussion and 3 rejected offers. I can’t see them upping the 10% discount to 60% somehow. The business alone, following base accountancy rules, is already worth more than that. Push too hard and we know they will go back to the market.
The game has now become hard ball.
Be genuinely prepared to walk away.

I'd go in embarrassingly low, and when they laugh at you, up a little bit and if declined again, up a tiny bit more, and then walk.
It may well go back on the market.
Others may well take a look.
Make sure they know your bid is still available for a fixed period (3-4 months) and await their call.

Putting a 10 page version of this thread, in French, in somewhere where it can be easily found on the web will inform any other prospective buyers 'Caveat Emptor'

This is a massive project you are undertaking, and the only way this level of work and investment makes sense is it has to be running at a profit within a fixed number of months (24, 36, 48 ?)
If that is looking unlikely because of current interest rates, the same will apply to any other buyer, so do not overpay.
There will be other sites to buy.
 
I agree with both tinkertaylor and Brains but it’s a mix of what they both suggest.

I would suggest the outcome you need is a going to have to be a hard ball renegotiation as their fiscal year delivery, hasn’t matched their contractual commitment. I would guess, based on your previous comments an the vendors character (in particular their emotional attachment to the site) that this is approached with some very carefully constructed, well reasoned, data driven factual observations in several play books…

You need to be very clear on your position! You don’t necessarily need to expose that position, but you need to be very well planned in this regard. Will you walk away without achieving certain concessions from the existing agreement? Your recent posts suggest that you will have to due to the site never delivering the revenue to service the debt.

Risk vs reward, revenue vs margin opportunity, cost of finance vs overall revenue opportunity.. Is there ‘blue ocean’ upside you can leverage quickly? You need to play hard ball with yourself; there is no point in rose tinting any of this and you need to not view what the sunny uplands opportunities are here, what’s the worst case scenario of how much you can turn this around and base your data decisions points on median positions between sunny and cloudy!

I continue to wish you good luck! 🤞
 
The game has now become hard ball.
Be genuinely prepared to walk away.

I'd go in embarrassingly low, and when they laugh at you, up a little bit and if declined again, up a tiny bit more, and then walk.
It may well go back on the market.
Others may well take a look.
Make sure they know your bid is still available for a fixed period (3-4 months) and await their call.

Putting a 10 page version of this thread, in French, in somewhere where it can be easily found on the web will inform any other prospective buyers 'Caveat Emptor'

This is a massive project you are undertaking, and the only way this level of work and investment makes sense is it has to be running at a profit within a fixed number of months (24, 36, 48 ?)
If that is looking unlikely because of current interest rates, the same will apply to any other buyer, so do not overpay.
There will be other sites to buy.
Absolutely (y)(y)(y)
 
If after further careful consideration you do decide to pull out of the deal can you contractually and will it cost you financially to do so?

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From the posts you have put on here ,this site has seriously gone downhill from when you started, well I admit I never could see the value from the start but now if he puts it up for sale again it will have to be at a considerable discount because of current trends.
So if you don't get a reduction now you will still be able to come back with a more attractive offer.
 
Taking a wider view, if just half a percent increase in interest makes the difference between profit and loss , you can't be working on making much, what happens if something else happens, drought, floods , roofs blow off, anything really and if the money doesn't come in at the other end you are pretty much stuffed.
It's ok taking a Rosie view like most on here but it's not their life and money they are risking.
 
Taking a wider view, if just half a percent increase in interest makes the difference between profit and loss , you can't be working on making much, what happens if something else happens, drought, floods , roofs blow off, anything really and if the money doesn't come in at the other end you are pretty much stuffed.
It's ok taking a Rosie view like most on here but it's not their life and money they are risking.
Half a percent on 4% is a 12.5% increase in costs, a considerable chunk out of your profit margin.
 
Half a percent on 4% is a 12.5% increase in costs, a considerable chunk out of your profit margin.
No it's not it's just on the interest not on the total business.

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Sorry, I was under the impression the business was largely financed with a mortgage, at around 70% of the total cost. Maybe its not so bad then?
Yes but my point is , it's only the interest on the money that's gone up, not the repayment or staff costs or all manner of things , the half a percent extra on the interest is only say a tenth of the whole costs so a tenth of half a percent on the whole expenditure.
 
It must be my age, as I still view 5% as being a low rate. Our mortgage was from 1970 to late 1990s and never saw anything like that low.
View attachment 788188
Very true and if the business can't stand the amount of borrowing or 5 percent interest it isn't really a viable business, I'm sorry but we managed it .
 
Sorry, I was under the impression the business was largely financed with a mortgage, at around 70% of the total cost. Maybe it’s not so bad then?
It’s not just the interest rates. It’s the fact that we now see that the current owner appears to have deliberately misled us on the forecasts for this season. A reason I insisted we were able to stay onsite through the season and put a few caveats in the ‘compromis’ was to confirm that the income was as claimed. It isn’t. Last year was extreme due to the post pandemic effect and this season is, while not quite a disaster, about 50% down.

This place requires about €3m of capital to turn round. as stated it is roughly half in purchase cost, half in required investment. Everything and I do mean everything requires replacing. Without investment it will continue to wither and will die. We planned to put in capital 1/3 of that. That’s €2m of debt to service. Plan A was to ‘partner’ (their term) the banks for the second €1.5m over 5 years.

By far the most important was current turnover. Without sufficient turnover, income, there’s no viable business to begin with, it’s too much of a challenge.

The reduction in income or CA changes the value of the FdC. Hence there is now a need to achieve a corresponding reduction in the price. We will be seeking a 33% reduction in the price for the business (no change in the value of the ‘walls’). It won’t be easy and there is likely to be some tears and emotion from the vendor and especially some anger from his wife when we present the facts face to face.

We will achieve the result, or we will walk, it’s that simple. Neither Bea nor I can guess how it will go.

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It’s not just the interest rates. It’s the fact that we now see that the current owner appears to have deliberately misled us on the forecasts for this season. A reason I insisted we were able to stay onsite through the season and put a few caveats in the ‘compromis’ was to confirm that the income was as claimed. It isn’t. Last year was extreme due to the post pandemic effect and this season is, while not quite a disaster, about 50% down.

This place requires about €3m of capital to turn round. as stated it is roughly half in purchase cost, half in required investment. Everything and I do mean everything requires replacing. Without investment it will continue to wither and will die. We planned to put in capital 1/3 of that. That’s €2m of debt to service. Plan A was to ‘partner’ (their term) the banks for the second €1.5m over 5 years.

By far the most important was current turnover. Without sufficient turnover, income, there’s no viable business to begin with, it’s too much of a challenge.

The reduction in income or CA changes the value of the FdC. Hence there is now a need to achieve a corresponding reduction in the price. We will be seeking a 33% reduction in the price for the business (no change in the value of the ‘walls’). It won’t be easy and there is likely to be some tears and emotion from the vendor and especially some anger from his wife when we present the facts face to face.

We will achieve the result, or we will walk, it’s that simple. Neither Bea nor I can guess how it will go.
At last we are beginning to see eye to eye (y) :unsure:
 
Morning,I have been following your journey and am really struggling to find any positives,only negatives.
I really do think you should wallk away,and follow your dream with a fully functioning campsite, which are out there as chaser has posted examples.
I really do wish you all the best with what ever you choose to do (y)
 
It’s not just the interest rates. It’s the fact that we now see that the current owner appears to have deliberately misled us on the forecasts for this season. A reason I insisted we were able to stay onsite through the season and put a few caveats in the ‘compromis’ was to confirm that the income was as claimed. It isn’t. Last year was extreme due to the post pandemic effect and this season is, while not quite a disaster, about 50% down.

This place requires about €3m of capital to turn round. as stated it is roughly half in purchase cost, half in required investment. Everything and I do mean everything requires replacing. Without investment it will continue to wither and will die. We planned to put in capital 1/3 of that. That’s €2m of debt to service. Plan A was to ‘partner’ (their term) the banks for the second €1.5m over 5 years.

By far the most important was current turnover. Without sufficient turnover, income, there’s no viable business to begin with, it’s too much of a challenge.

The reduction in income or CA changes the value of the FdC. Hence there is now a need to achieve a corresponding reduction in the price. We will be seeking a 33% reduction in the price for the business (no change in the value of the ‘walls’). It won’t be easy and there is likely to be some tears and emotion from the vendor and especially some anger from his wife when we present the facts face to face.

We will achieve the result, or we will walk, it’s that simple. Neither Bea nor I can guess how it will go.
Have you investigated why there is a reduction in visitors?
I wouldn't think it's the state of the place as anyone looking to come wouldn't know till they got there, could it be a slowing down since covid, or the rise of CCP or what, is it going to continue going down never mind what you do. All things to be considered.
 
It’s not just the interest rates. It’s the fact that we now see that the current owner appears to have deliberately misled us on the forecasts for this season. A reason I insisted we were able to stay onsite through the season and put a few caveats in the ‘compromis’ was to confirm that the income was as claimed. It isn’t. Last year was extreme due to the post pandemic effect and this season is, while not quite a disaster, about 50% down.

This place requires about €3m of capital to turn round. as stated it is roughly half in purchase cost, half in required investment. Everything and I do mean everything requires replacing. Without investment it will continue to wither and will die. We planned to put in capital 1/3 of that. That’s €2m of debt to service. Plan A was to ‘partner’ (their term) the banks for the second €1.5m over 5 years.

By far the most important was current turnover. Without sufficient turnover, income, there’s no viable business to begin with, it’s too much of a challenge.

The reduction in income or CA changes the value of the FdC. Hence there is now a need to achieve a corresponding reduction in the price. We will be seeking a 33% reduction in the price for the business (no change in the value of the ‘walls’). It won’t be easy and there is likely to be some tears and emotion from the vendor and especially some anger from his wife when we present the facts face to face.

We will achieve the result, or we will walk, it’s that simple. Neither Bea nor I can guess how it will go.
👍💞🙏🤞

Here’s to you both and hope it goes well whichever way it goes. You have learned a lot here regardless of the outcome. It will stand you in good stead.

If this one doesn’t work 100% in your favour I’m sure you will find one that does.

Carol
 
At last we are beginning to see eye to eye (y) :unsure:
I'm not quite sure you are seeing eye to eye, I just think you both agree on not taking 'something' on that isn't viable.
I think the OP was quite clear from the beginning in that if it wasn't affordable after a massive amount of due diligence ( some of the camp sites that have been put forward are not actually operating, so it would have been difficult to do as much background research as the OP has obviously done) that they would walk away if they couldn't reach a workable price/contract out, Which is why they only agreed a contract on a VERY low interest rate, which in terms of the current hikes in interest rates, actually shows they were using their heads and not their hearts as I doubt that rate was ever achievable.
Some posters suggested walking immediately, but I like their commitment to their own base line principles. They were never going to take it on if it was a bad business proposition, I don't think either of them are that naive.
Plus they've had quite a few months camp site accomodation for free LOL, so if they do move on its only really cost them time and emotions and they have established a potential business partnership with the banks, which will be critical when moving forward.

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