2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?

[Gromett]

As far as EV versus H goes.. again it will depend on the bottom line

The bottom line is everything you are correct.

Did you know that a Fuel Cell is only 40-60% efficient?
Did you know electrolysis at peak is only 80% efficient?

So... Let's take 100KWh as an example.
100KWh of electric will get you 80KWh of hydrogen equivelent.
80KWh eq of hydrogen through a fuel cell will give you 40%-60% electric back, lets take the mid point 50%. So you get 40KWh out for every 100KWh you put in.


Now lets do the same for Electric. The loss are grid transmission and full round trip in battery. There is an 80% efficiency here. So you generate 100KWh and 80KWh ends up at your motor.


Now here comes the economics. IF we can make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as cheaply as BEV's then there are two options.
Either the Electric companies need to sell electric to the hydrogen producers at around 25% of the cost that they could sell to the public direct.
OR
Hydrogen will cost 4 times as much (minimum) as a BEV will be per KWh used.

Batteries just make more sense for every use case except for the follow exceptions.
1) can't make a battery big enough economically (example: example long distance shipping).
2) Can't make a battery light enough (example: long distance airline travel).
3) fast turn around required and 24h operation (examples: Some trucking and some farming)

Cars, vans and light trucking do not fulfill these requirements.


Hydrogen was the BetaMax. It came out before Battery electric vehicles were viable and had 20 years head start. Batteries are the VHS. Cheaper more useful and more practical.

I think for grid scale storage and limited areas of transport hydrogen has a bright future but not for cars.

 

[Gromett]

That 84% percentage might include domestic garages which count as off road parking for Planning purposes.

On some modern estates the developer provided either a parking space or single garage but not both. Often the garage is in a separate block with no electric supply. Oops. As we all know, those single garages are (1) too narrow for modern cars so if you manage to squeeze it in you can't even open the doors; and (2) normally used as storage e.g. for all those essential MH accessories we all used to buy at the shows.

PS I saw a rare early EV today, an 8 year old Vauxhall Ampera hooked up to a charging point.

There are stats on this but I honestly can't be bothered to chase them up. It is a minority of users.

My point isn't that it is a solved problem. It is an issue but it is solvable and within the time frame required is my position.

 

[Gromett]

PS I saw a rare early EV today, an 8 year old Vauxhall Ampera hooked up to a charging point.

That wasn't an EV if memory serves it was a range extender hybrid?

 

[nicholsong]

That’s already happening in the next village . I walked up a street in that village and there was an orange charging lead extension coming out of the upstairs window of a house across the road to a car.

I used to do that at my terraced house in London. Lead from bedroom window to lampost on kerb, down to MH. All well above pedestrian head height. Problem?

Geoff

 

[Gromett]

This is worth a read for those who think Hydrogen is the answer.

Energy conversion for Hydrogen cars is only half that for BEVs - Energy Post

Though Toyota may be a big fan, hydrogen cars have a problem. Energy must move from wire to gas to wire to power the car. There are always significant losses when the energy vector changes. For Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) the energy stays on wires all the way to the car. Tom Baxter at the […]

energypost.eu

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[duane0001]

I wasn't going to buy another combustion engined vehicle but my wife being ill made it more about the now, So I pick my new Diesel auto trail up in Feb and run it until I am 60 in 13 years, the vehicle will then be 13 years old, then I will look at what alternative fuels there is (All being well)

 

[glenn2926]

I used to do that at my terraced house in London. Lead from bedroom window to lampost on kerb, down to MH. All well above pedestrian head height. Problem?

Geoff

Aye maybe you did. This was running along the road. Cars were running over it. I don’t think it’ll last long once the bin wagon and a few tractors have been over it.

 

[tribalbrit]

Shouldn't worry to much, the grid wont be able to supply enough electricity to keep everyone mobile. Expect bans on unnecessary journeys. Work trips will come first MH's may even become outlawed, as unnecessary.

 

[busby]

There are stats on this but I honestly can't be bothered to chase them up. It is a minority of users.

My point isn't that it is a solved problem. It is an issue but it is solvable and within the time frame required is my position.

Not where I live,,many cars are parked two or three streets away from where they live..BUSBY.

 

[Steve N Tracy]

The thought of staying on a campsite with hydrogen powered vehicles and people cooking on naked flames fills me with fear
As to whether we will still have diesel well the current installation of bike lanes that are installed if they are used or not, HS2 going ahead even if we cannot afford it, the push towards electric vehicles that we might not ever have the infrastructure to support, and the current push on banning the use of plastics here and there makes me think that the world's reserves of oil might be close to exhaustion.

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[Podney]

I don’t have a plan,other than trying to stay alive till then,and beyond I hope

Hopefully our 56 plate van will chug along till 2030 or longer.....who knows? When the van gives up,so will we. Then it’ll be B&B’s,5* hotels and cruises! What’s not to like??!!

 

[Ditcha]

One of the reasons we bought new this year was to down size but also for end of live for ICE vehicles, so here's to the next 9 years and fingers crossed for a good trade in 2030 or we will keep it another 10 years.

 

[Gromett]

Shouldn't worry to much, the grid wont be able to supply enough electricity to keep everyone mobile. Expect bans on unnecessary journeys. Work trips will come first MH's may even become outlawed, as unnecessary.

Except the national grid has already said this is not the case and they can supply the electric.

 

[Gromett]

Not where I live,,many cars are parked two or three streets away from where they live..BUSBY.

And you think it is beyond people to think of a way around this issue?

Here are just a couple of suggestions off the top of my head.

1) Designated parking outside your house. Each house gets one designated spot and a kerb side charger. It is up to the household if they have more than one car to alternate the cars for access to their spot/charger.
2) Lampost and kerbside chargers with marked parking spots to ensure they are accessible. Some london areas are already doing this.
3) bookable charging spots. A bunch of charging spots near each house which you can book electronically, with massive fines for anyone blocking them.

There are many, many more. Not all ideas will work in all areas, but using the most suitable system or combination for each area makes them practical.

 

[tribalbrit]

Except the national grid has already said this is not the case and they can supply the electric.

And pigs can fly.
Imagine everyone getting home early evening, put car on charge, put the kettle on, jump in shower, (electric) stick dinner in oven, put TV on, (more than one in our house.) put heating on (gas done away with also) lights on etc, etc, etc.
It'll be like being back in the bloody 70's.

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[LesW]

This is worth a read for those who think Hydrogen is the answer.

It's not the answer, no more than lithium/cobalt battery powered cars/vehicles are, but it may be an alternative until a fully green source of power is dicovered or invented.

 

[SuperMike]

Or buy a motorhome with a petrol engine.

 

[jumar]

Any Norwegians on Fun.....last time we were in Bergen most private cars in the city were Electric.... charging points everywhere....distances between cities vast....
Be interesting to see how they view Electric cars...

 

[Barclaybasher]

If I'm still around my Eriba will be 40 years old and free of tax and MOT

 

[Captain Yoghurtpot]

They will be discussing the same subject on narrow boats , should they have an electric one, will they still get diesel. Everyone is guessing.

Just an aside, but in Turkey, on the Dalyan river delta, the co-operative boat taxis to take you up the river were converted to electric engines with big solar panels on the roof/ sun canopy.
The river delta is an area of ecological , environmental and natural importance, and the diesel boats were having a major negative effect on the water quality and environment.
The electric powered boats were very good, and still well powered, but then Turkey does get a lot of sun!

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[Ivory55]

Any Norwegians on Fun.....last time we were in Bergen most private cars in the city were Electric.... charging points everywhere....distances between cities vast....
Be interesting to see how they view Electric cars...

Didn’t Scandinavia have electric points for cars years ago, as they used to plug the cars in to keep the engine warm to cut pollution on start up.

 

[Jaws]

The bottom line is everything you are correct.

Did you know that a Fuel Cell is only 40-60% efficient?
Did you know electrolysis at peak is only 80% efficient?

So... Let's take 100KWh as an example.
100KWh of electric will get you 80KWh of hydrogen equivelent.
80KWh eq of hydrogen through a fuel cell will give you 40%-60% electric back, lets take the mid point 50%. So you get 40KWh out for every 100KWh you put in.


Now lets do the same for Electric. The loss are grid transmission and full round trip in battery. There is an 80% efficiency here. So you generate 100KWh and 80KWh ends up at your motor.


Now here comes the economics. IF we can make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as cheaply as BEV's then there are two options.
Either the Electric companies need to sell electric to the hydrogen producers at around 25% of the cost that they could sell to the public direct.
OR
Hydrogen will cost 4 times as much (minimum) as a BEV will be per KWh used.

Batteries just make more sense for every use case except for the follow exceptions.
1) can't make a battery big enough economically (example: example long distance shipping).
2) Can't make a battery light enough (example: long distance airline travel).
3) fast turn around required and 24h operation (examples: Some trucking and some farming)

Cars, vans and light trucking do not fulfill these requirements.


Hydrogen was the BetaMax. It came out before Battery electric vehicles were viable and had 20 years head start. Batteries are the VHS. Cheaper more useful and more practical.

I think for grid scale storage and limited areas of transport hydrogen has a bright future but not for cars.

All very nice and yep, true..
But you ask the man in the street whether he would have electric with its charging up, or H where they will go fill up like now ( albeit 4 x dearer than electric ) which way do you think Joe public is gonna vote ?

 

[Gromett]

And pigs can fly.
Imagine everyone getting home early evening, put car on charge, put the kettle on, jump in shower, (electric) stick dinner in oven, put TV on, (more than one in our house.) put heating on (gas done away with also) lights on etc, etc, etc.
It'll be like being back in the bloody 70's.

People won't charge during peak time. It will be on a timer so it charges on cheap electricity. Read the report

electric in the UK costs around 15p/KWh on average. Off peak EV rates are as little as 5p an hour.

 

[Gromett]

All very nice and yep, true..
But you ask the man in the street whether he would have electric with its charging up, or H where they will go fill up like now ( albeit 4 x dearer than electric ) which way do you think Joe public is gonna vote ?

For those with home charging it is a no brainer.

For those who don't then a little education will be enough to swing them to the battery way of things (cheaper).

Do you think the average joe would figure out ways to charge a battery and save 50% fuel costs, or do you think he will say I can't be arsed to wait 20 minutes to charge up once a week and go with hydrogen at twice the price?

 

[Captain Yoghurtpot]

I think you are looking at this the wrong way round... We won't need solar on our roof putting out 100-200 watts when we are carrying around 100Kwh batteries.

What I think will happen is this;

We will scrap the LPG/Calor gas and go 100% electric for heating and water. We will dump the pathetic lead acid leisure battery and just work from the main vehicle battery.
Before we get to a campsite we will do a top up charge giving us 100Kwh of energy which is more than enough to last a full week on the campsite, then do a charge at the first fast charge station as we leave.

Offgrid/offsite camping will actually become easier as we don't need to top up with Diesel for the van, LPG for the heater/cooker and Petrol for the genny (just in case). We simply stop at a supercharger and fill up for all three.

I surmise that campsite may not need to provide hookups any more for motorhomes, only for caravans.

Like this idea, and the campsites could also have a fast charge point purely for topping up for either arrival or departure use only.
Would be an ideal setting for many existing fuel stations with a shop and cafe to convert to a charge point and camp site.
Maybe even an sire?

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[Gromett]

It's not the answer, no more than lithium/cobalt battery powered cars/vehicles are, but it may be an alternative until a fully green source of power is dicovered or invented.

It's not if you look into it in any depth. The only advantage hydrogen has is speed of filling. Everything else about it is a negative and some a huge negative.

By 2030 super fast charging of electric cars will be practical.

 

[glenn2926]

I just don’t want to wait around for hours whilst the four or five cars in front of me recharge. Then when it’s my turn if I’m not prepared to wait another 6 to 8 hours I can only get 80% of a charge. It all just feels like we’re going backwards in time. Like having to rest your horse before it can continue.
Whereas now it’s drive 400 miles stop fill up in around 3 or 4 minutes then away again good for another 400 miles.
When electric vehicles can do that, oh and sound and feel like a V8 or whatever configuration of cylinders one would like. Then and only then would I be even the remotest interested in using one.

 

[Wildbill]

Didn’t Scandinavia have electric points for cars years ago, as they used to plug the cars in to keep the engine warm to cut pollution on start up.

stop the sump oil getting to thick freezing normally just a heating sump pad
bill

 

[Jim]

And pigs can fly.
Imagine everyone getting home early evening, put car on charge, put the kettle on, jump in shower, (electric) stick dinner in oven, put TV on, (more than one in our house.) put heating on (gas done away with also) lights on etc, etc, etc.
It'll be like being back in the bloody 70's.

Our power usage is actually in decline. The national grid have have confirmed the capacity to charge all the cars today. Just not at the same time.

I'm sure that by then we will be awash with massive storage facilities, so not one watt of wind/solar power will be wasted. I'm also sure there will be different tariffs to charge at different times,
The national grid have the capacity to charge all the cars today and you are right it is the when that could upset them, but they are already well on the way with systems to guarantee you a charge in say an 4, 6, 8 or 12 hour window (you'll pay) this means they will able to push and pull the power to smooth out the demand lumps, so it will be nothing like the 70s

 

[russ the rambler]

My van is 7 years old and I plan to keep patching it up for the next 10 years. I will probably have to pay more and more each year in tolls because its diesel, and there will be pollution charges in almost every city.

I can’t see it being worth much by 2030 so I better enjoy it while I can. My daughter will be 17 at that point so hopefully it would have lasted all our ‘good holidays’ i.e. ones where she actually wants to go with us.

if it takes a one-way trip to the scrap heap after that …cest la vie. I’ll buy a new electric model at that point.

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