2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?

[buntyb]

How many times have you heard or experienced directly, parking disputes over parking spaces. The same will happen with charging points.

 

[Gromett]

10 years is a long time, and technology can be expected to have provided an answer at least for the commercial base vehicle. But whether it is practical for that base vehicle to be a motorhome is another question. If it's an electric vehicle, loads of solar may just be enough to do habitation, but you won't be getting a recharge from driving the engine anymore. Your off grid activities will have to be curtailed, and are campsites going to install vehicle charge points accessible from most pitches? Even the tent and caravaners will be needing this.

I think you are looking at this the wrong way round... We won't need solar on our roof putting out 100-200 watts when we are carrying around 100Kwh batteries.

What I think will happen is this;

We will scrap the LPG/Calor gas and go 100% electric for heating and water. We will dump the pathetic lead acid leisure battery and just work from the main vehicle battery.
Before we get to a campsite we will do a top up charge giving us 100Kwh of energy which is more than enough to last a full week on the campsite, then do a charge at the first fast charge station as we leave.

Offgrid/offsite camping will actually become easier as we don't need to top up with Diesel for the van, LPG for the heater/cooker and Petrol for the genny (just in case). We simply stop at a supercharger and fill up for all three.

I surmise that campsite may not need to provide hookups any more for motorhomes, only for caravans.

 

[busby]

Does that mean there will be no fuel retailed after this date? Our vans along with vintage and historic vehicles have a pretty long life if well looked after, I don't think we need to panic.

No plans for banning HGV diesel trucks on that date i dont think and they will still need diesel..BUSBY.

 

[Wildbill]

Remember that back in the day when cars first appeared they Sade that it would never work where will they fill the monsters.
There will be enough infrastructure eventually
bill

 

[busby]

I think you are looking at this the wrong way round... We won't need solar on our roof putting out 100-200 watts when we are carrying around 100Kwh batteries.

What I think will happen is this;

We will scrap the LPG/Calor gas and go 100% electric for heating and water. We will dump the pathetic lead acid leisure battery and just work from the main vehicle battery.
Before we get to a campsite we will do a top up charge giving us 100Kwh of energy which is more than enough to last a full week on the campsite, then do a charge at the first fast charge station as we leave.

Offgrid/offsite camping will actually become easier as we don't need to top up with Diesel for the van, LPG for the heater/cooker and Petrol for the genny (just in case). We simply stop at a supercharger and fill up for all three.

I surmise that campsite may not need to provide hookups any more for motorhomes, only for caravans.

Or better still provide charging points..BUSBY.

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[georgio]

We might see charge points in campsites where you pull in and plugin for the night, then in the morning off you go, but this will need carefull route planning .This is all guesswork and the pace things are moving who knows ?

 

[Gromett]

Slightly off topic I know but I have forseen electric filling/charging stations with combined cafes and office facilities being an upgrade from the stations we have now.

You mean like this?

UK’s first electric car charging forecourt opens

First of 100 planned electric car-only service areas has opened in Essex, offering 36 electric car chargers, plus shops, cafes and relaxation areas

www.whatcar.com

 

[Gromett]

Or better still provide charging points..BUSBY.

Most campsite are rural. The cost of providing chargers and the related infrastructure will probably be too high and not really necessary. When we can carry our energy to the campsite why should the campsite need to invest heavily to provide it?
You don't find LPG stations at many campsite for example.

 

[Gromett]

One point many people may not realise is. A 100Ah lead battery is only around 1KWh and of that only 600Wh is usable.
A van with a 100Kwh battery will have 80KWh available for use for camping. This is equivelent to a lot more than 100 x 100Ah leisure batteries around the 133 mark.

 

[Cheshirecat57]

I think as we get close to the 2030 cutoff depreciation on new Diesel vans will ramp up. This will put off people buying them even more.

I suspect however after 2030 depreciation will start to fall as there will be no new supply of second hand vans. Restricted supply always pushes price up.

I would only consider buying new if I was intending to keep it for it's entire lifespan. This way depreciation doesn't matter.

However, I suspect that sales of Diesel vehicles will start to crash by 2025. I also suspect this will make them unprofitable for the manufacturers who rely on making large numbers to keep profitable. Keeping an engine factory running to produce 50% less engines will not be viable.
So I think there will be much less choice from 2025 onwards.

Then there is the impact on the petrol stations. The smaller ones will start to close as fewer people use them. Larger ones near bigger towns will continue as they will be able to install chargers, cafes and shops etc. But the smaller community ones in villages will become unprofitable as demand falls.

Big changes ahead and no one can really predict what will happen. These are my guesses.

Might even be before then Gromett

I assume Euro 7 is coming, cant see any manufacturer spending R&D funds on developing a new Diesel motor
Volvo cars already dont offer any new models with the option of Diesel

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[busby]

You may be surprised to know that;

The majority (it's roughly 60:40) of UK dwellings have off street parking. But it gets better. Those who don't drive cars are over-represented in the dwellings with no car parking. PWC recently estimated that a stunning 84% of UK drivers have access to off-street parking at home.
Source: PWC (link is currently down sorry).

So a majority of car owners 84% have off road parking. I don't think the situation is as bad as people think on this front.

Come and have a look where i live and i live in a village not the city...All roads in the entire village are parked on because majority of properties are Victorian or older..Most ex mining villages are like this,,BUSBY.

 

[NicandJay]

Boris might say 2030 now but there ain't no way on earth the country will be ready for the number of charging points required. This target will slip and slip beyond even the original 2040 proposal.

Also suddenly somewhere someone in a position of authority is gonna realise that the batteries have a limited life and then where do we put them all and how much for the replacements. Nothing is for free power wise in the end

 

[glenn2926]

I can’t imagine that the Government & local authorities will allow every vehicle to have a charging point of its own. Not everyone has a garden or driveway, so how are they going to provide enough charging points? E.g will it be one charging point does 4 vehicles?
I have visions of trailing cables all over the streets . Not very pedestrian friendly or safe.

That’s already happening in the next village . I walked up a street in that village and there was an orange charging lead extension coming out of the upstairs window of a house across the road to a car.

 

[Jimbohorlicks]

We might see charge points in campsites where you pull in and plugin for the night, then in the morning off you go, but this will need carefull route planning .This is all guesswork and the pace things are moving who knows ?

You will be only able to travel around 90 miles before you need another charge.plus you will need a C1 licence for every electric van.

 

[Jim]

There are only 8,400 gas stations with an average of 5 pumps making 42400 places to fill up

Can you imagine if 70% of us have a petrol pump at home. The service stations would be almost empty.

The average car journey is 11 miles so most charging will take place at home and they will never visit a public charging place

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[Gromett]

Come and have a look where i live and i live in a village not the city...All roads in the entire village are parked on because majority of properties are Victorian or older..Most ex mining villages are like this,,BUSBY.

I didn't say there weren't areas of concern. I just said they were not as extensive as people seem to think. My 2nd to last house was a victorian terrace of 2 up 2 downs. no garden at all, no offstreet parking. But, I can imagine solutions...

 

[Gromett]

Boris might say 2030 now but there ain't no way on earth the country will be ready for the number of charging points required. This target will slip and slip beyond even the original 2040 proposal.

Also suddenly somewhere someone in a position of authority is gonna realise that the batteries have a limited life and then where do we put them all and how much for the replacements. Nothing is for free power wise in the end

Those arguments have been made many many times and don't hold water I am afraid.

2030 is the deadline for new pure ICE cars and vans. This is achievable with a bit of a push. That push has just been given, the market will do the rest.
2035 is the deadline for hybrids. I am sure with 15 years to go there is plenty of time to solve ALL the issues.

As for limited battery life. With the exception of the Nissan leaf, it is expected that batteries will be able to last the lifetime of the car. Batteries that are no longer suitable for EV's can be repurposed for storage. This is already happening.
Finally batteries are mainly made of copper and aluminium and can be almost completely recycled already. It will be a solved problem before it even becomes a problem.

 

[Gromett]

You will be only able to travel around 90 miles before you need another charge.plus you will need a C1 licence for every electric van.

Why will the range only be 90 miles? C1 license not required as there is already a 750KG increase for EV powered vans and this will likely be extended to motorhomes in the near future.

 

[TDub49]

So the Musk master plan is working well - everyone seems to think that batteries are the (only) way to go, except Ineos, who think that maybe hydrogen might have something to offer

Ineos and Hyundai to explore fuel cell for Grenadier - The Engineer

Petrochemical giant Ineos is teaming up with Hyundai to evaluate the use of a hydrogen fuel cell in the Ineos Grenadier 4x4 vehicle.

www.theengineer.co.uk

All I'm saying is that by 2030 it's not likely to be just electric and for sure, hybrids of one kind or another will be around along with many of the older diesel and petrol cars. What's going to be more of a pain is the growing number of low emission zones here and in Europe and the price you'll have to pay to pass through them.

 

[Brains]

I can’t imagine that the Government & local authorities will allow every vehicle to have a charging point of its own. Not everyone has a garden or driveway, so how are they going to provide enough charging points? E.g will it be one charging point does 4 vehicles?
I have visions of trailing cables all over the streets . Not very pedestrian friendly or safe.

Here in the London Borough of Greenwich the solution has existed for that last 2 years.
Every street light has a car charging socket, which you activate a QR code.

The problem will be for the 16% of cars that do not have off road parking, that are also not in an urban area (or an area with street lights.)

That tiny percentage is mostly going to be FLT's !

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[Gromett]

So the Musk master plan is working well - everyone seems to think that batteries are the (only) way to go, except Ineos, who think that maybe hydrogen might have something to offer

Ineos and Hyundai to explore fuel cell for Grenadier - The Engineer

Petrochemical giant Ineos is teaming up with Hyundai to evaluate the use of a hydrogen fuel cell in the Ineos Grenadier 4x4 vehicle.

www.theengineer.co.uk

All I'm saying is that by 2030 it's not likely to be just electric and for sure, hybrids of one kind or another will be around along with many of the older diesel and petrol cars. What's going to be more of a pain is the growing number of low emission zones here and in Europe and the price you'll have to pay to pass through them.

Hydrogen cars are nuts... They make no sense financially or from an infrastructure point of view. For ships, buses and large trucks I can see an argument could be made.

Oh and it seems a lot of people don't realise a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle still needs a battery and it is electric motors that power them from the fuel cell. So you basically have an EV which you then add a hydrogen tank and a fuel cell to.
Add this to the cost of the hydrogen filling station which cost Millions each compared to 100's of thousands for an EV charger.
Distributing hydrogen around the country is a safety issue.

And when you realise you need around double the electric to convert water to hydrogen than to just charge an EV....

 

[Jaws]

Can you imagine if 70% of us have a petrol pump at home. The service stations would be almost empty.

The average car journey is 11 miles so most charging will take place at home and they will never visit a public charging place

That average figure is oft quoted but is not really relevant .... unless you happen to fall within the median

The average garden is about 10 x 8 metres..
Where would you be with am average garden ?

Only .0027 of folk with vehicles have a motorhome, so motorhomes are so far off the average as to not be relevant

What ever system is used MUST be useable for all, not just 75% of folk

As I have said before, IMHO if things stood still the whole idea of wholesale EV use is a non starter.. But we have 10 years to srt out the myriad of issues.. And if manufacturers can see a profit at the end of it I have no doubt it will happen.. It will all be driven by money at the end of the day
As far as EV versus H goes.. again it will depend on the bottom line, and before anyone starts on about what is technically better, bare in mind what happened to Betamax and VHS..
Whatever is PERCEIVED to be the easiest option by the public will be the ultimate winner

EDIT
I typed in this as Gromett was posting and the last bit was not aimed at his post but my belief in general

 

[Riverbankannie]

Volvo cars already dont offer any new models with the option of Diesel

Interestingly, or not, it was exactly 10 years ago we bought a new volvo and the only option was diesel. Things can easily change in 10 years.

 

[gus-lopez]

.but there could be a lot less fuelling points to use by then.....!?!

we'll send you some over . the change over date provisionally here is 2050

Does that mean every tradesman in Europe is going to have to take a C1 licence ?

Hardly likely as 9 out of 10 refrigerated delivery box vans here are run at 3,5Tonnes , giving on average a 200kg payload , so that they can be driven by anyone on a B licence.
If you think that they don't load the vans up floor to ceiling front to back you would be dreaming .Most would run at least a minimum of 1 tonne overloaded when setting off.

Does this ice ban come into effect in Europe or just uk?

They are the UK dates. Here in spain the proposal is 2050 & noting whatsoever allowed on the roads afterwards that isn't electric. No hybrids, nothing. Can't see it happening. No idea about the French or Germans.

2030 is the deadline for new pure ICE cars and vans. This is achievable with a bit of a push. That push has just been given, the market will do the rest.
2035 is the deadline for hybrids

Not in Europe.

 

[gus-lopez]

That’s already happening in the next village . I walked up a street in that village and there was an orange charging lead extension coming out of the upstairs window of a house across the road to a car.

& there will be some going along chopping them for a laugh.

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[glenn2926]

& there will be some going along chopping them for a laugh.

They won’t need to. After it’s been run over for a few days it’s probably had it anyway.

 

[Puddleduck]

Assuming I am still around in 2030 I will wait and see ....... I'll need to replace my car before then and will have to decide what to do at that point.

Electric or fuel cell is the future but I have no idea if the snags and bugs will be sorted by then and if it will be possible to put disability adaptions onto the cars - at the moment some manufacturers have told me it's not possible as the ramp and hoist store and mechanisms usually go where the battery packs are in most electric cars. Other manufacturers just don't know.

I'm not sure about the motorhome - don't even know if we will still have it then.

 

[63720]

That’s already happening in the next village . I walked up a street in that village and there was an orange charging lead extension coming out of the upstairs window of a house across the road to a car.

Think of the voltage drop if you live on the 18th floor of a high rise, or someone is watching and wait for you to close the curtains and plug it into theirs ...

 

[Brains]

If you park your vehicle within 5m of a street lamp, then charging it is not a problem.

London councils have been fitting car charging ports to all street lamps for the last 2 years.
Every street lamp is my road doubles up as a car charging port.

 

[SpeedyDux]

You may be surprised to know that;

The majority (it's roughly 60:40) of UK dwellings have off street parking. But it gets better. Those who don't drive cars are over-represented in the dwellings with no car parking. PWC recently estimated that a stunning 84% of UK drivers have access to off-street parking at home.
Source: PWC (link is currently down sorry).

So a majority of car owners 84% have off road parking. I don't think the situation is as bad as people think on this front.

That 84% percentage might include domestic garages which count as off road parking for Planning purposes.

On some modern estates the developer provided either a parking space or single garage but not both. Often the garage is in a separate block with no electric supply. Oops. As we all know, those single garages are (1) too narrow for modern cars so if you manage to squeeze it in you can't even open the doors; and (2) normally used as storage e.g. for all those essential MH accessories we all used to buy at the shows.

PS I saw a rare early EV today, an 8 year old Vauxhall Ampera hooked up to a charging point.

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