2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?

What we don’t know yet is whether diesel fuel prices will be prohibitive.
Buy a proper diesel that was made to run on anything.
At night when an EV is on charge it will pull less current than that. Remember the EV gets charged at night on low tariff rate and pretty much everything else in the house is switched off.
Are you serious? Everyone I know who has the day/night economy rate uses everything during that period & the absolute minimum during the high rate period.

There are figures out there that tell us how many have off road parking. You may be surprised to hear that the figure is as high as 84%.
& as I said before it is nonsense. % people in the same house will all tell you they have offroad parking.The qusetion that needs to be asked is " Does you house/flat/accommodation have parking for every vehicle at the same time"
You may also be surprised to hear that in areas with a higher percentage of homes without off street parking the figure for car ownership is a lot lower.
& as I said before where my nephew lives in Essex that is complete b*****ks.
Additionally you cannot even park in the road both sides ,it has to be staggered.
ICE, EV ? I'm getting myself an ECE, plenty of time to look at the scenery, depending on which way the wind is blowing !

off topic but shows the standard of driving at the end when they all overtake without an indicator between them.
People actually do like them once they have experienced them.
They may do but if you cannot go out, run around all day without having to worry about recharging, then having to hang around waiting it isn't for me .
Are you telling me because china isn't doing enough we shouldn't either?
Yes. Yanks as well.We have been down this route myriad times rignt back to 30 + years ago. We either ALL do it together with no one country allowed to be out or you are wasting your time. We still haven't sorted the refrigeration gasses & that has been going on since 1992.
 
I'm still not conviced that even with doubling our wind capacity we will be capable of supplying greater than 50% of our projected demand at best.
It means that gas and coal will always be needed if only on standby. The last few weeks of dull windless weather has demonstrated this. This also calls into question the 'greenness' of the rush to electric everything.


 
A Queston for Karl(Gromett)

Is there any indication of the weight of batteries coming down? Current batteries seem to only give AHs in a close relation to weight.

If this is a near constant in battery technology continuing forward into the EV era I can see some consequences for the Motorhome EV market.

Already there is talk that for an EV van chassis to be viable to take a reasonable payload the MPLM may have to increase from a norm of 3500kg to 4250kg. Although there are proposals for licence requirements to be altered to accomodate this it would only be for use in UK, not internationally, so no Continental touring for UK licence holders.

It would need a lot of work to get agreement to internationally increase the limit on 'B' licences. Therefore I forsee more pressure on the MH public to get C1 licences. I imagine that if people were wanting to get a C1 licnece from the start of driving that a combined course from scratch could cost significantly less than lessons to get 'B' and a further course to do C1

If C1 licences became the MH norm then the market could change dramatically, because then the MH manufacturers could be looking at using truck chassis as the norm, and where the battery-to-gross weight ratio might look better than in the van 3500kg bracket. Further they might not have to look at using more lightweight/high tech and expensive materials to keep down to van weights.

Karl's answer to my question may indicate whether fitting batteries to existing weight and licence regulations is feasible, or whether we should be thinking that EV MHs will be in a higher weight bracket - many quality ones are already, some manufacturers not even producing any models at 3500kg.

Just another way of looking at solving these problems.

Geoff
 
A Queston for Karl(Gromett)

Is there any indication of the weight of batteries coming down? Current batteries seem to only give AHs in a close relation to weight.

If this is a near constant in battery technology continuing forward into the EV era I can see some consequences for the Motorhome EV market.

Already there is talk that for an EV van chassis to be viable to take a reasonable payload the MPLM may have to increase from a norm of 3500kg to 4250kg. Although there are proposals for licence requirements to be altered to accomodate this it would only be for use in UK, not internationally, so no Continental touring for UK licence holders.

It would need a lot of work to get agreement to internationally increase the limit on 'B' licences. Therefore I forsee more pressure on the MH public to get C1 licences. I imagine that if people were wanting to get a C1 licnece from the start of driving that a combined course from scratch could cost significantly less than lessons to get 'B' and a further course to do C1

If C1 licences became the MH norm then the market could change dramatically, because then the MH manufacturers could be looking at using truck chassis as the norm, and where the battery-to-gross weight ratio might look better than in the van 3500kg bracket. Further they might not have to look at using more lightweight/high tech and expensive materials to keep down to van weights.

Karl's answer to my question may indicate whether fitting batteries to existing weight and licence regulations is feasible, or whether we should be thinking that EV MHs will be in a higher weight bracket - many quality ones are already, some manufacturers not even producing any models at 3500kg.

Just another way of looking at solving these problems.

Geoff

Yes, there is work on bringing down the weight of batteries. Tesla for instance is moving from 2170 to 4680 cell size which reduces the amount of steel required per KWh. They are then dropping the module and pack packaging and making the battery structural. Due to the method they are using for thermal management they will also dump a load of copper.

The great thing about this is that not only does it increase the energy by factor of x5 it increases the power by a factor of 6x. The energy density will almost double as a result. ie they could fit in around 130Kwh of battery into the same space as the current 74KWh in a current Model Y. Or you could use half the space and close to half the weight for the same energy storage.

Currently a cell is made up of mainly copper and aluminium. This is in the form of a sheet of each which are then rolled up. The thickness of the sheet is dictated by the amount of current that needs to be carried. Telsa's new tabless design means the current has less distance to travel so they in theory could make the copper and aluminium sheet thinner. This could also result in quite the weight saving.

The next 2-3 years will be very interesting in the battery design field. More and more companies are seriously researching this.

The other thing that needs to change is the manufacturing process for cars. The traditional auto industry with the exception of VW seems to want to keep doing things the same way, and this just doesn't get the best out of a vehicle. Once they start looking at 0.1% improvements that they can make and doing this by the 100's we will start seeing range increase even with the same battery size. For the lower range cars they will then be able to reduce the battery size while maintaining the same range. Aerodynamics will make a big difference. When they stop doing all the greebling on the front and we move away from having big ear style wing mirrors range will also increase.

I also think we will start seeing things like light weight panels for things like the bonnet

On your question about licenses. Currently you can drive a 4.25 ton EV on a standard B license for certain types of use cases. This I think will be extended to motorhomes in the future.

I think we will see lots of advances, clever ideas and new technologies over the next 5-10 years which will significantly alter the situation to what it is now. Exciting times.
 
A Queston for Karl(Gromett)

Is there any indication of the weight of batteries coming down? Current batteries seem to only give AHs in a close relation to weight.

If this is a near constant in battery technology continuing forward into the EV era I can see some consequences for the Motorhome EV market.

Already there is talk that for an EV van chassis to be viable to take a reasonable payload the MPLM may have to increase from a norm of 3500kg to 4250kg. Although there are proposals for licence requirements to be altered to accomodate this it would only be for use in UK, not internationally, so no Continental touring for UK licence holders.

It would need a lot of work to get agreement to internationally increase the limit on 'B' licences. Therefore I forsee more pressure on the MH public to get C1 licences. I imagine that if people were wanting to get a C1 licnece from the start of driving that a combined course from scratch could cost significantly less than lessons to get 'B' and a further course to do C1

If C1 licences became the MH norm then the market could change dramatically, because then the MH manufacturers could be looking at using truck chassis as the norm, and where the battery-to-gross weight ratio might look better than in the van 3500kg bracket. Further they might not have to look at using more lightweight/high tech and expensive materials to keep down to van weights.

Karl's answer to my question may indicate whether fitting batteries to existing weight and licence regulations is feasible, or whether we should be thinking that EV MHs will be in a higher weight bracket - many quality ones are already, some manufacturers not even producing any models at 3500kg.

Just another way of looking at solving these problems.

Geoff

I just did a search for an article that cover the developments at Tesla in the battery area. I quote Tesla a lot because they are leaders in the field and eventually when the traditional manufacturers get their fingers out of the butts will achieve similar things.

This is the best article I could find. It is technically deficient in some minor areas, but give an excellent overview. Not a hard read.

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Although there are proposals for licence requirements to be altered to accomodate this it would only be for use in UK, not internationally, so no Continental touring for UK licence holders.
They modfied the laws here last month doing the same as the Uk ,up to 4250kgs for electric.
 
Hi Folks, I have been reading your posts on electric MHs but some people may not be aware that Bosch have developed new Diesel engine technology that almost reduces the emissions from Diesel engines. Tests have shown emissions of NO2 at an average of 13mg per km. The current maximum emissions permitted under EU law is now 120mg per km.
The new apparently is does not add significantly to the cost of the vehicle. Hopefully it will be developed as an after market option. For further info google Bosch Diesel Technology.

Len




become
 
Sorry - a few typos above! “Reduces” should read “Eliminates”
 
The bottom line is everything you are correct.

Did you know that a Fuel Cell is only 40-60% efficient?
Did you know electrolysis at peak is only 80% efficient?

So... Let's take 100KWh as an example.
100KWh of electric will get you 80KWh of hydrogen equivelent.
80KWh eq of hydrogen through a fuel cell will give you 40%-60% electric back, lets take the mid point 50%. So you get 40KWh out for every 100KWh you put in.


Now lets do the same for Electric. The loss are grid transmission and full round trip in battery. There is an 80% efficiency here. So you generate 100KWh and 80KWh ends up at your motor.


Now here comes the economics. IF we can make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as cheaply as BEV's then there are two options.
Either the Electric companies need to sell electric to the hydrogen producers at around 25% of the cost that they could sell to the public direct.
OR
Hydrogen will cost 4 times as much (minimum) as a BEV will be per KWh used.

Batteries just make more sense for every use case except for the follow exceptions.
1) can't make a battery big enough economically (example: example long distance shipping).
2) Can't make a battery light enough (example: long distance airline travel).
3) fast turn around required and 24h operation (examples: Some trucking and some farming)

Cars, vans and light trucking do not fulfill these requirements.


Hydrogen was the BetaMax. It came out before Battery electric vehicles were viable and had 20 years head start. Batteries are the VHS. Cheaper more useful and more practical.

I think for grid scale storage and limited areas of transport hydrogen has a bright future but not for cars.
What a clever bunny, you are, you have my ears
 
I cant plan beyond getting to the end of this present crisis let alone decide what to do about an ageing smoky old Transit. Every MOT is a challenge with emissions so I don’t think it’s going to be environmentally friendly in ten years time.
I’m with you big wood, I have an 07 Transit, and i’m approaching 70, so for me it’s “Who give’s a F***k. If i’m still around and capable of seeing, let alone driving, and the old girl will still fire up, I will quietly run her on chip fat, and fight anyone who tries to stop me. 😖
I cant plan beyond getting to the end of this present crisis let alone decide what to do about an ageing smoky old Transit. Every MOT is a challenge with emissions so I don’t think it’s going to be environmentally friendly in ten years time.

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But would government listen to a really clean diesel----- are they totally obsessed with killing off diesel motors at any cost??
This SOUNDS far more practical than battery cars as they are at the moment!!!!
I do believe we will switch to another fuel eventually. But batteries have to go a long way in development to be practical.
Just my opinion!!!
 
My thoughts are that any government in power will backtrack on banning Diesels in this timescale , imagine even with the advanced batteries coming online the size and weight the said battery would have to be to power a 44tonne truck delivering from Felixstowe Docks to the Midlands Hub and back (over 300 miles,) on one charge. More worry would be for me if I owned an electric car is in the next 2 to 3 years with far better batteries being fitted to new cars it is reported that current electric cars values will plummet
 
Interesting, so there is an alternative to diesel or electric.:wasntme:
 
My thoughts are that any government in power will backtrack on banning Diesels in this timescale , imagine even with the advanced batteries coming online the size and weight the said battery would have to be to power a 44tonne truck delivering from Felixstowe Docks to the Midlands Hub and back (over 300 miles,) on one charge. More worry would be for me if I owned an electric car is in the next 2 to 3 years with far better batteries being fitted to new cars it is reported that current electric cars values will plummet
Tesla are going into production next year with a 600 mile semi truck. If Tesla can do it, then the others will eventually follow.

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Hi Folks, I have been reading your posts on electric MHs but some people may not be aware that Bosch have developed new Diesel engine technology that almost reduces the emissions from Diesel engines. Tests have shown emissions of NO2 at an average of 13mg per km. The current maximum emissions permitted under EU law is now 120mg per km.
The new apparently is does not add significantly to the cost of the vehicle. Hopefully it will be developed as an after market option. For further info google Bosch Diesel Technology.

Len




become
Clean is relative. This is clever stuff but it doesn't stop the CO2 emissions. So not a solution.

It would help with localised air pollution I am sure, but I can't see the government forcing a retrofit. Not even sure a retrofit would be possible.
 
Hi Folks, I have been reading your posts on electric MHs but some people may not be aware that Bosch have developed new Diesel engine technology that almost reduces the emissions from Diesel engines. Tests have shown emissions of NO2 at an average of 13mg per km. The current maximum emissions permitted under EU law is now 120mg per km.
The new apparently is does not add significantly to the cost of the vehicle. Hopefully it will be developed as an after market option. For further info google Bosch Diesel Technology.

Len




become
Len, i’ve just read up on Bosch, and yes they seem to be still in favour of diesel power, Which i think will become v important as we move forward. Battery has advantages, but carries with it a shed load of unknowns, and more disadvantages than advantages , for the motorist, especially the MHer’s. As with every thing it favours the have’s rather than the have not’s. I have given this change a lot of thought for some years, & apart from the cost, it shakes up the freedom, which I would guess from speaking & Reading on Fun, that freedom is the main reason we all do it. I may be talking crap, but I think we should not act in haste but seriously consider this cleaner diesel & cleaner engine, and All the MH groups should start now, & Lobby hard in favour. Well that’s my thought anyway, and take a look at dieselforum.org
 
Just hoping I'm still here in 10 years.
You must have found the ideal pitch if you want still be there in 10 years & and in which case you won’t be using much diesel any way. “I’ll get my coat”.🥱
 
My thoughts are that any government in power will backtrack on banning Diesels in this timescale , imagine even with the advanced batteries coming online the size and weight the said battery would have to be to power a 44tonne truck delivering from Felixstowe Docks to the Midlands Hub and back (over 300 miles,) on one charge. More worry would be for me if I owned an electric car is in the next 2 to 3 years with far better batteries being fitted to new cars it is reported that current electric cars values will plummet
The 2030 ban does not affect trucks
 
Len, i’ve just read up on Bosch, and yes they seem to be still in favour of diesel power, Which i think will become v important as we move forward. Battery has advantages, but carries with it a shed load of unknowns, and more disadvantages than advantages , for the motorist, especially the MHer’s. As with every thing it favours the have’s rather than the have not’s. I have given this change a lot of thought for some years, & apart from the cost, it shakes up the freedom, which I would guess from speaking & Reading on Fun, that freedom is the main reason we all do it. I may be talking crap, but I think we should not act in haste but seriously consider this cleaner diesel & cleaner engine, and All the MH groups should start now, & Lobby hard in favour. Well that’s my thought anyway, and take a look at dieselforum.org
Bosch makes an awful lot of money from Diesel, from injector to pump and a lot more. Of course they don't want to lose a big chunk of their profit. They also make battery powered stuff but they don't make the batteries themselves so they will lose out medium term.

The two most impactful disadvantages of EV at the moment are charge speed and range. Both of these will be solved it is only a matter of time. The cost side of the batteries is just a matter of economies of scale and are close to being resolved.

I have said this before but it is worth repeating. Battery supply is massively constrained at the moment. There is more demand than supply. You only have to look at the recent Opel and VW ID.3 situation where they have sold their entire stock out way faster than they expected. Conventional ICE cars are sold to dealer then sit on the lot until someone wants one. EV's are being presold before they are even manufactured sometimes years ahead of production. Look at Tesla who sells every single car they make directly to the customer and have done for many years.
The Opel story shows this is not just restricted to Tesla.

ok, so what this means is that supply is constrained. The reason for this is that there are not enough batteries being made. The ramp up in demand has been way quicker than the manufacturers expected. What this means is that van manufacturers currently have a limited supply of batteries. To keep the maths simple lets use a round figure of 1,000KWh of batteries are available. They then look at the maths and figure out how to allocate those batteries to generate the most profit. Currently the majority of vans are used for very short range local deliveries and trades. Less than 100 miles is the oft quoted figure. So given this, does the manufacture of these vans produce 20 x 50KWh vans OR 10 x 100KWh vans? The obvious answer is they produce 20 x 50KWh vans with 100 mile range. For 2 reasons. the most important is they make the same profit on both so selling twice as many short range vans doubles the profit. The second reason is that the batteries do currently increase the cost over an equivalent ICE van so going with 100KWh vans would make them unattractive to the consumer.

Here is the things though. Over the next couple of years battery production is ramping up massively. The unit cost of the batteries is falling at a fair clip. Once production meets or exceeds demand the prices will fall further as manufacturers compete to sell them. Remember these are commodity items. Once the wholesale price (not the production cost) reaches $100 per KWh EVs will reach parity with ICE based on cost. The premium on EVs will be gone. So then your question should be. If an EV costs the same as an ICE but costs way less to fuel and maintain, who would want to buy an ICE anymore?

The only advantage the ICE would have is speed of refuelling. But if you start your day with a full charge (most people will) and the average car has enough charge to last a week why would you care? Remember more than half the population only does less than 165 miles per week... So even without charging at home, you would only need to charge once per week.

My point is that over the next 10 years, things will get cheaper, batteries will get bigger, range will increase (for a price) and charging will get faster. Now the manufactures have had a boot put up their arse they will be moving a lot more quickly, rather than procrastinating and cheating like they have over the last decade.

For the motorhomer. Yes there are going to be some changes. For those who travel the continent and want to just skip France then there are some significant changes. But these make up a tiny proportion of the motoring population of the UK. So Lobby away, I doubt you will even twitch the needle of government no matter how hard you lobby.

One word of advice though. Do not buy a motorhome based on a conventional van refitted as an EV. Wait until a manufacturer produces a base vehicle designed from the ground up as an EV. At that point we will see vehicles that are compelling and reasonably priced.

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The 2030 ban does not affect trucks
You are correct. However, I think once the Tesla semi comes out and is tested in the real world by hauliers then more hauliers will want to move over due to lower costs of operation and less downtime for maintenance.
 
Bosch makes an awful lot of money from Diesel, from injector to pump and a lot more. Of course they don't want to lose a big chunk of their profit. They also make battery powered stuff but they don't make the batteries themselves so they will lose out medium term.

The two most impactful disadvantages of EV at the moment are charge speed and range. Both of these will be solved it is only a matter of time. The cost side of the batteries is just a matter of economies of scale and are close to being resolved.

I have said this before but it is worth repeating. Battery supply is massively constrained at the moment. There is more demand than supply. You only have to look at the recent Opel and VW ID.3 situation where they have sold their entire stock out way faster than they expected. Conventional ICE cars are sold to dealer then sit on the lot until someone wants one. EV's are being presold before they are even manufactured sometimes years ahead of production. Look at Tesla who sells every single car they make directly to the customer and have done for many years.
The Opel story shows this is not just restricted to Tesla.

ok, so what this means is that supply is constrained. The reason for this is that there are not enough batteries being made. The ramp up in demand has been way quicker than the manufacturers expected. What this means is that van manufacturers currently have a limited supply of batteries. To keep the maths simple lets use a round figure of 1,000KWh of batteries are available. They then look at the maths and figure out how to allocate those batteries to generate the most profit. Currently the majority of vans are used for very short range local deliveries and trades. Less than 100 miles is the oft quoted figure. So given this, does the manufacture of these vans produce 20 x 50KWh vans OR 10 x 100KWh vans? The obvious answer is they produce 20 x 50KWh vans with 100 mile range. For 2 reasons. the most important is they make the same profit on both so selling twice as many short range vans doubles the profit. The second reason is that the batteries do currently increase the cost over an equivalent ICE van so going with 100KWh vans would make them unattractive to the consumer.

Here is the things though. Over the next couple of years battery production is ramping up massively. The unit cost of the batteries is falling at a fair clip. Once production meets or exceeds demand the prices will fall further as manufacturers compete to sell them. Remember these are commodity items. Once the wholesale price (not the production cost) reaches $100 per KWh EVs will reach parity with ICE based on cost. The premium on EVs will be gone. So then your question should be. If an EV costs the same as an ICE but costs way less to fuel and maintain, who would want to buy an ICE anymore?

The only advantage the ICE would have is speed of refuelling. But if you start your day with a full charge (most people will) and the average car has enough charge to last a week why would you care? Remember more than half the population only does less than 165 miles per week... So even without charging at home, you would only need to charge once per week.

My point is that over the next 10 years, things will get cheaper, batteries will get bigger, range will increase (for a price) and charging will get faster. Now the manufactures have had a boot put up their arse they will be moving a lot more quickly, rather than procrastinating and cheating like they have over the last decade.

For the motorhomer. Yes there are going to be some changes. For those who travel the continent and want to just skip France then there are some significant changes. But these make up a tiny proportion of the motoring population of the UK. So Lobby away, I doubt you will even twitch the needle of government no matter how hard you lobby.

One word of advice though. Do not buy a motorhome based on a conventional van refitted as an EV. Wait until a manufacturer produces a base vehicle designed from the ground up as an EV. At that point we will see vehicles that are compelling and reasonably priced.
Grommet, you obviously know a lot about this, or you have plenty of book reading time, away in your MH! “Joking”!🤓.
I do take all your points, & I will definitely grab my coat!!! As I’ve said before, “Love this club. Much better than having your brain fried with by TV. Thanks. Learning more on here, than did in school, shame I’m stroking the big 70 .
 
Tesla are going into production next year with a 600 mile semi truck. If Tesla can do it, then the others will eventually follow.
The estimated weight of the Tesla truck battery is 11800 kgs ,so it would lose half of it's carrying capacity, the truck is estimated to cost twice as much as a diesel truck, can't see Eddie Stobart buying them , I assume the truck would take a lot hours to charge.
 
I'm really not sure how I will react to be honest. I worry about buying a new one but that was the agenda until this little lot was thrown at me. My original intention was to retire in 5 years (or less) then trade this baby in for a brand new model which should see me off. Having said that, I now worry about the price of fuel to run it. I am already at 29 MPG on a long run. as low as 25 MPG with a short runaround and if the diesel hits a high I will be knackered. Especially on a pittance of a pension that is country offeres. I think I am still going for it but won't really know until nearer the time. Remember Unleaded fuel? How much cheaper it was to get you on it. And diesel was dirt cheap too. Then we all went on Unleaded (forced) and the price shot up drastically. They'll do the same with Diesel when this comes in to effect. My main worry is the transport industry in general. Than God I'll be out of it by then.

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The estimated weight of the Tesla truck battery is 11800 kgs ,so it would lose half of it's carrying capacity, the truck is estimated to cost twice as much as a diesel truck, can't see Eddie Stobart buying them , I assume the truck would take a lot hours to charge.
Your estimates are wrong. the cost is wrong and your assumptions on battery charging are wrong :p

Musk has already stated categorically that the current semi has a weight penalty of just under 1T (US) or around 900KG. With the new batteries he says it should be around the same or even better.

The cost of a Tesla Semi is either $150,000 or $180,000 for the long range. In the US a budget truck which doesn't compare to the Tesla is $80,000 but the more usual price is $150,000 but can reach $200,000 for the high end ones.

The battery will charge in 30 minutes with enough electricity to last 640Km (400 miles)

When you factor in the maintenance costs of a truck, the fuel costs and the downtime then the Tesla pays for itself a lot quicker than you would expect. As for Eddie Stobart not buying them... You are correct but not for the reasons you think. These trucks are designed for the US market. They are too big for the UK market. However, expect the traditional makers to come up with alternatives to compete or they will see their business decimated by someone who does. Musk has said he may do a European version in the future.
 
Your estimates are wrong. the cost is wrong and your assumptions on battery charging are wrong :p

Musk has already stated categorically that the current semi has a weight penalty of just under 1T (US) or around 900KG. With the new batteries he says it should be around the same or even better.

The cost of a Tesla Semi is either $150,000 or $180,000 for the long range. In the US a budget truck which doesn't compare to the Tesla is $80,000 but the more usual price is $150,000 but can reach $200,000 for the high end ones.

The battery will charge in 30 minutes with enough electricity to last 640Km (400 miles)

When you factor in the maintenance costs of a truck, the fuel costs and the downtime then the Tesla pays for itself a lot quicker than you would expect. As for Eddie Stobart not buying them... You are correct but not for the reasons you think. These trucks are designed for the US market. They are too big for the UK market. However, expect the traditional makers to come up with alternatives to compete or they will see their business decimated by someone who does. Musk has said he may do a European version in the future.
I have read a different Website than you then , one does wonder how you will charge/ or part a 900 Kg battery in a half an hour ,charging points in the States my next door to a power Station so there's no voltage drop !
 

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