2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?

Anyway, to get back to Jims OP, i dont really have a plan, i will be 73, kids can plan everything for me
I'm already there. The kids plan nothing for us. They wouldn't dare. You planning on giving up on life at 70?
 
Not sure what to make of this one. The lack of aerodynamics was initially a concern until I saw the operating speeds. The maths may add up for local 24 a day deliveries. Be interesting to see Nvidia's autonomous system. They went quiet after the Uber crash that killed someone.

 
Very commendable.

Sadly the big ticket item that doesn't ever fall in price unlike other high tech consumer products is the motor vehicle.

The best index to measure inflation in car prices used to be the unofficial Mars Bar index. Because the weight and content of the Mars Bar used to be a constant measure of value, and the corresponding retail price was effectively an accurate measure if inflation (unlike the RPI and CPI whose basket of goods and services was a bit of a fiddle and always being adjusted). I don't know if the Mars Bar index still exists. I suspec thte Mars Ba itself is no longer a constant and has alrered in recent years.
I suspect that if you research 1970s car prices, and take some account of their expected useful life, you'll find prices much the same or even slightly cheaper now. Fuel costs definitely lower.
 
Nov sales figures out for UK.

Europe’s third largest auto market, the UK, saw plugin electric vehicle market share of 15.9% in November 2020, up significantly from a relatively strong 5.8% in November 2019. Diesel’s share of sales in the UK slipped below the plugin share for the first time, at 14.0% and falling rapidly. Overall auto volumes were down 27.4% year-on-year.

Full Battery EV are now at 9.1% of sales. Not so long back I was being mocked for predicting such fast growth where it was pointed out that BEVs only made up 1% of sales.

What is holding back sales at the moment is lack of awareness and supply constraints of batteries. The government ban being announced has fixed the awareness issue and manufacturers are starting to ramp up supply. Battery supply is still the issue but in recent weeks many manufactures are talking about doubling of the supply in the next 2 years. This will accelerate.

I think we are definitely seeing the start of the steep part of the S curve here.

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Just as a reminder. Last years figures for Nov 2019 were.

5.8% for all plugin vehicles and 3.0% for BEVs

So in a year it has gone from 3% to 9.1% a tripling in just a year. Back then I was predicting a doubling if memory serves.

 
Demand is definitely there, supply still the limiting factor.

 
Just as a reminder. Last years figures for Nov 2019 were.

5.8% for all plugin vehicles and 3.0% for BEVs

So in a year it has gone from 3% to 9.1% a tripling in just a year. Back then I was predicting a doubling if memory serves.

Given that all manufacturers are gearing from ICE to EV it’s not surprising, many manufacturers are changing or have changed their R&D teams so in many ways the future is hear and now it’s just a question of how the manufacturers change from ICE to EV production. There is no argument about it happening as it is.

The average owner does not buy new but second hand and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Some people have PCP’s paying out hundreds each month but with increasing layoffs it will again be interesting to see what happens to second hand EV’s in terms of how people view the risk of taking on a battery car that has done 30000 40000 miles and how the motoring industry comes up with solutions for change out of and when required.
 
IMO in our future there are going to be increasingly frequent power cuts and blackouts despite optimists and National Grid wishful thinking about surplus generating capacity from renewables.

All it takes is high percentage EV takeup, combined with compulsory electric-only domestic heating, and a very bad winter with an anticyclone stuck over Scandinavia for weeks if not months. This has happened several times in the past century. No wind, and full cloud cover. Unless we can bring all the UK fossil fuel power stations back online quickly enough, the worst case scenario would be hundreds of thousands of excess deaths from hypothermia. That's a scenario Brits could face by 2045 under current net zero CO2 policies.

Never mind not being able to charge your EV or phone. You will effectively be living by candlelight in an igloo without running water.

I doubt if I will be still alive; or best case, spending the winter in Spain with a bit of luck.

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I would be happy with an electric car as our second car----- but there is no way we would dare to buy a second hand one---- you could guarantee the battery would be shot----- and we would never lay out the price of a new one--- even if we had it!!!!
So unless the batteries have some sort of worthwhile guarantee I think the second hand market would be difficult!!
 
Nov sales figures out for UK.



Full Battery EV are now at 9.1% of sales. Not so long back I was being mocked for predicting such fast growth where it was pointed out that BEVs only made up 1% of sales.

What is holding back sales at the moment is lack of awareness and supply constraints of batteries. The government ban being announced has fixed the awareness issue and manufacturers are starting to ramp up supply. Battery supply is still the issue but in recent weeks many manufactures are talking about doubling of the supply in the next 2 years. This will accelerate.

I think we are definitely seeing the start of the steep part of the S curve here.

I realise that you are a big fan of electric vehicles and whilst I do agree they are the future. I just feel we will be losing something that has given a great deal of pleasure to motoring fans over the years. Once electric is the only choice the enjoyment and fun of driving and riding will be gone.
I will probably keep an old motorbike for the odd ride out. All my other vehicles will be electric but owning them will hold no pleasure. It will be like owning a dishwasher or washing machine. Just another appliance.
 
Just as a reminder. Last years figures for Nov 2019 were.

5.8% for all plugin vehicles and 3.0% for BEVs

So in a year it has gone from 3% to 9.1% a tripling in just a year. Back then I was predicting a doubling if memory serves.


Karl

What are the equivalent figures for vans and 7.5t trucks please?

Geoff
 
I realise that you are a big fan of electric vehicles and whilst I do agree they are the future. I just feel we will be losing something that has given a great deal of pleasure to motoring fans over the years. Once electric is the only choice the enjoyment and fun of driving and riding will be gone.
I will probably keep an old motorbike for the odd ride out. All my other vehicles will be electric but owning them will hold no pleasure. It will be like owning a dishwasher or washing machine. Just another appliance.

I suspect that in the 1890-1910s a lot of folk were saying that replacing horses with these new-fangled motor vehicles would never catch on. How could sitting inside a tin car, making an horrendous noise and pumping noxious gases out into the air possibly compensate for the pleasure of sitting up high on a magnificent horse (or even an old nag)?

Don't forget that the first road maps were produced by oil companies, marking their petrol stations and allowing routes to be planned to get from A to B without exceeding the limited range available at the time.

Gordon
 
Given that all manufacturers are gearing from ICE to EV it’s not surprising, many manufacturers are changing or have changed their R&D teams so in many ways the future is hear and now it’s just a question of how the manufacturers change from ICE to EV production. There is no argument about it happening as it is.

The average owner does not buy new but second hand and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Some people have PCP’s paying out hundreds each month but with increasing layoffs it will again be interesting to see what happens to second hand EV’s in terms of how people view the risk of taking on a battery car that has done 30000 40000 miles and how the motoring industry comes up with solutions for change out of and when required.
My original comments were aimed at one or two who said no one will buy EV's and Tesla will only sell to the fan boys and nut huggers (I think the term was). Once Tesla has sold to these no one will buy them. I was mocked for saying I thought the market share would double each year.

The fact is ICE cars have not been banned, and won't be for another 10 years. If no one wants them how come they have gone from 3% market share to 9% market share in a year.

With Boris bringing in his ban, people will start looking at them and realising that for at least 50% of the population and probably a much higher percentage they are here today and the advantages are worth the extra cost up front.

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So unless the batteries have some sort of worthwhile guarantee I think the second hand market would be difficult!!
8 year warranty on most decent manufacturers.
 
Once electric is the only choice the enjoyment and fun of driving and riding will be gone.
Yeah, electric cars are boring aren't they :(



The 2nd black dude made me laugh.
 
I realise that you are a big fan of electric vehicles and whilst I do agree they are the future. I just feel we will be losing something that has given a great deal of pleasure to motoring fans over the years. Once electric is the only choice the enjoyment and fun of driving and riding will be gone.
I will probably keep an old motorbike for the odd ride out. All my other vehicles will be electric but owning them will hold no pleasure. It will be like owning a dishwasher or washing machine. Just another appliance.

I think in 10 or 20 years time, most people will think why the hell did people like those noisy smelly slow ICE cars. What did they see in them.

Yes I am a fan. I HATE man made noise. I long for a world that is silent and peaceful. I also love efficiency and 90% efficiency vs 30-35% of an ICE appeals. I also long for the day when I can if I choose get into my car and tell it to take me somewhere and it just does it. Yes, sometimes it is fun to get out and have a blast, but most of the time travel is a chore I would rather do without.
 
Karl

What are the equivalent figures for vans and 7.5t trucks please?

Geoff
No idea. But it will be very low. They are only just getting started. The other segment that is lacking is pickups, zero vehicles available in that segment either.

But it is only a matter of time now.

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I think in 10 or 20 years time, most people will think why the hell did people like those noisy smelly slow ICE cars. What did they see in them.

Yes I am a fan. I HATE man made noise. I long for a world that is silent and peaceful. I also love efficiency and 90% efficiency vs 30-35% of an ICE appeals. I also long for the day when I can if I choose get into my car and tell it to take me somewhere and it just does it. Yes, sometimes it is fun to get out and have a blast, but most of the time travel is a chore I would rather do without.
There’s going to have to be one hell of an improvement in electric cars before they call ICE slow. The electric motorbikes aren’t as fast as ICE bikes and only do one lap. A long, long way behind. The formula E series has to change cars. The real cars don’t even need to refuel. A long, long way behind.
Like I have said I’ll no doubt end up with electric cars but I’ll probably just buy what ever is cheapest as a whirring motor is a whirring motor. I’ll also probably buy a white one to match the rest of the appliances.
 
There’s going to have to be one hell of an improvement in electric cars before they call ICE slow. The electric motorbikes aren’t as fast as ICE bikes and only do one lap. A long, long way behind. The formula E series has to change cars. The real cars don’t even need to refuel. A long, long way behind.
Like I have said I’ll no doubt end up with electric cars but I’ll probably just buy what ever is cheapest as a whirring motor is a whirring motor. I’ll also probably buy a white one to match the rest of the appliances.

I wasn't talking about track vehicles. As for formula E, never got into it, too gimmicky. Bikes are only just starting to get going with electrics. However, a friend of mine was persuaded to test drive one and then went out and sold his Ducati to buy one. He had nothing good to say about electric vehicles bikes or otherwise 2 years ago. Now he is a convert. Once he tried it he was in big time.
 
I wasn't talking about track vehicles. As for formula E, never got into it, too gimmicky. Bikes are only just starting to get going with electrics. However, a friend of mine was persuaded to test drive one and then went out and sold his Ducati to buy one. He had nothing good to say about electric vehicles bikes or otherwise 2 years ago. Now he is a convert. Once he tried it he was in big time.
I hope he likes his bike however one wouldn’t work for me in the foreseeable future as one of my annual trips is to visit my lad in Chamonix. I get the ferry from Hull then when I get off I go to Chamonix in one hit. Just stopping to refuel then go again another two hundred miles fill up and go again. Just stopping for two or three minutes every two hundred miles.
Electric cannot do this and is unlikely to do it in my lifetime.
 
Compared to ICE yes. I’m sorry but a whirring electric motor isn’t doing it for me.
Nothing like the sound of a V16 BRM unfortunately the heady octane days are over but it’s the same reason that people get exited by the Sound of a Merlin engine or the thunder a Top fuel Dragster makes as it unleashes what is really a controlled explosion as it goes for a 1/4 mile race

EV, are efficient but all those people with wild expressions have probably never been on track you just cannot drive on the road in the same way, shear exceleration Is one thing but hammering over curbs or watching the track disappear as you go for a chicane at speed is something else.
 
Nothing like the sound of a V16 BRM unfortunately the heady octane days are over but it’s the same reason that people get exited by the Sound of a Merlin engine or the thunder a Top fuel Dragster makes as it unleashes what is really a controlled explosion as it goes for a 1/4 mile race

EV, are efficient but all those people with wild expressions have probably never been on track you just cannot drive on the road in the same way, shear exceleration Is one thing but hammering over curbs or watching the track disappear as you go for a chicane at speed is something else.
You’re correct EVs are efficient and as an A to B module they are definitely the future. To slightly change a quote, EVs move the person ICE moves the soul.

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My original comments were aimed at one or two who said no one will buy EV's and Tesla will only sell to the fan boys and nut huggers (I think the term was). Once Tesla has sold to these no one will buy them. I was mocked for saying I thought the market share would double each year.

The fact is ICE cars have not been banned, and won't be for another 10 years. If no one wants them how come they have gone from 3% market share to 9% market share in a year.

With Boris bringing in his ban, people will start looking at them and realising that for at least 50% of the population and probably a much higher percentage they are here today and the advantages are worth the extra cost up front.
Speaking with people in the industry it’s more about manufacturers shifting focus if they move from producing ice to EV they need political agreement nothing to do with Boris as such it’s happening, he is just announcing what the industry is telling him.
 
Nothing like the sound of a V16 BRM unfortunately the heady octane days are over but it’s the same reason that people get exited by the Sound of a Merlin engine or the thunder a Top fuel Dragster makes as it unleashes what is really a controlled explosion as it goes for a 1/4 mile race

EV, are efficient but all those people with wild expressions have probably never been on track you just cannot drive on the road in the same way, shear exceleration Is one thing but hammering over curbs or watching the track disappear as you go for a chicane at speed is something else.
I remember an article on TV, Top Gear?, which had a sound system in the car which made it sound like a V8 or what ever you wanted. Demonstrated on a small family car, it howled like a Ferrari with sound in synch with the car engine revs. Perhaps have that on your EV.
I did a bit of Googling, seems there are loads of App based systems, Revheadz being one, that link via bluetooth to your OBD2 diagnostic port.
 
Speaking with people in the industry it’s more about manufacturers shifting focus if they move from producing ice to EV they need political agreement nothing to do with Boris as such it’s happening, he is just announcing what the industry is telling him.
If it wasn't for governments telling them to move to EV's they never would have. Even with pressure from Tesla they would have kept on producing their "clean" diesels because they have so much invested in it. Why change what works unless forced to.

The tories saying 2035 under may, got them moving slowly. Boris saying 2030 has put a fire cracker up their arses.
 
I remember an article on TV, Top Gear?, which had a sound system in the car which made it sound like a V8 or what ever you wanted. Demonstrated on a small family car, it howled like a Ferrari with sound in synch with the car engine revs. Perhaps have that on your EV.
I did a bit of Googling, seems there are loads of App based systems, Revheadz being one, that link via bluetooth to your OBD2 diagnostic port.
They would also need to simulate the power curve and breaks in acceleration for gear changes :p Just wouldn't feel right if there was a constant sound of acceleration that was disjointed with the seat of the pants feel...
 
You’re correct EVs are efficient and as an A to B module they are definitely the future. To slightly change a quote, EVs move the person ICE moves the soul.
ICE stresses me out with the constant drone of the engine,

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