Stretto Boy
LIFE MEMBER
2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?
- Thread starter Jim
- Start date
The Polestar has a towing capacity of 1500kg i believe but a bit out my price range
Give it a couple of years and I think you’ll see more fully electric cars with a decent kerbweight and towing capacity becoming available
Model Y has a towing package. Unfortunately Model Y is not available in the UK yet until the German factory starts production.
Tesla launches Model Y tow package, reveals strange detail about towing capacity
Tesla has launched its aftermarket Model Y tow package and revealed more details about the towing capacity of the electric...
electrek.co
I have been following technology ALL my life. From my first computer in 1978 at the age of 7/8. First electronics kit for my 5th birthday and so on. Because of this I have been intensely aware of how fast tech moves and how much quicker that progress has become. Here are a few snippets for you.
The world’s first mobile phone call was made on April 3, 1973, when Martin Cooper, a senior engineer at Motorola, called a rival telecommunications company and informed them he was speaking via a mobile phone. The phone Cooper used – if you could call it that – weighed a staggering 1.1kg and measured in at 228.6x127x44.4mm. With this prototype device, you got 30 minutes of talk-time and it took around 10 hours to charge.
In 1983, Motorola released its first commercial mobile phone, known as the Motorola DynaTAC 8000X. The handset offered 30 minutes of talk-time, six hours standby, and could store 30 phone numbers. It also cost £2639 ($3995).
It took 30 years from the first one before the public really took to them.
New technology does a few things.
1) Starts off extremely expensive
2) Gets cheaper for that original spec over time.
3) Gets better at the same price over time.
4) Normal members of the public tend to be in the middle of 2 and 3.
You can still buy a feature phone today that the battery will last 2 weeks, charge in a few hours and costs around £10.
At the other end of the scale you can pay £1,200 for a phone with all the latest wizardry.
Most of us buy middle of the pack and you can get a £150 phone that has most of the tech of the latest phone.
With any new technology, progress starts really slow, hits the tipping point and speeds up until it reaches close to the maximum then levels off. This is called the S curve and applies to features, performance, cost etc etc.
EV's have just passed the slow rise and just hit the elbow of the exponential rise section. This tipping point is where the manufacturers gets serious about it. Competition kicks in. Economies of scale and competition bring the price down. Competition forces manufacturers to add more capabilities and features. The costs come down and the capabilities go up. What many don't realise is that the time period that the S curve happens over is getting faster and faster. Our tech is improving to the point where it feeds itself. CAD systems allowed us to get rid of physical models and move to virtual modelling of products. 3D printing allows us to physically check a product before building full scale prototypes. There are many many more things forcing the S curve. The thing is the initial ramp of the S curve tends to be the same, fairly slow and steady. You can see this in things like tablets. They took quite a while to lift off then all of a sudden they were everywhere and went from £1,000 to £50 in very short order.
The same will happen with EV's. The range will increase, the price will come down and it will be up to the consumer to balance off range vs cost. There will be extremely high range cars that cost quite a lot (but reducing over time) and there will be dirt cheap EV's with very little range suitable only for a weeks worth of local commuting on a single charge. Charge speeds will increase, weight and cost will come down.
10 years is a long time in tech once you hit the tipping point of the S curve.
The world’s first mobile phone call was made on April 3, 1973, when Martin Cooper, a senior engineer at Motorola, called a rival telecommunications company and informed them he was speaking via a mobile phone. The phone Cooper used – if you could call it that – weighed a staggering 1.1kg and measured in at 228.6x127x44.4mm. With this prototype device, you got 30 minutes of talk-time and it took around 10 hours to charge.
In 1983, Motorola released its first commercial mobile phone, known as the Motorola DynaTAC 8000X. The handset offered 30 minutes of talk-time, six hours standby, and could store 30 phone numbers. It also cost £2639 ($3995).
It took 30 years from the first one before the public really took to them.
New technology does a few things.
1) Starts off extremely expensive
2) Gets cheaper for that original spec over time.
3) Gets better at the same price over time.
4) Normal members of the public tend to be in the middle of 2 and 3.
You can still buy a feature phone today that the battery will last 2 weeks, charge in a few hours and costs around £10.
At the other end of the scale you can pay £1,200 for a phone with all the latest wizardry.
Most of us buy middle of the pack and you can get a £150 phone that has most of the tech of the latest phone.
With any new technology, progress starts really slow, hits the tipping point and speeds up until it reaches close to the maximum then levels off. This is called the S curve and applies to features, performance, cost etc etc.
EV's have just passed the slow rise and just hit the elbow of the exponential rise section. This tipping point is where the manufacturers gets serious about it. Competition kicks in. Economies of scale and competition bring the price down. Competition forces manufacturers to add more capabilities and features. The costs come down and the capabilities go up. What many don't realise is that the time period that the S curve happens over is getting faster and faster. Our tech is improving to the point where it feeds itself. CAD systems allowed us to get rid of physical models and move to virtual modelling of products. 3D printing allows us to physically check a product before building full scale prototypes. There are many many more things forcing the S curve. The thing is the initial ramp of the S curve tends to be the same, fairly slow and steady. You can see this in things like tablets. They took quite a while to lift off then all of a sudden they were everywhere and went from £1,000 to £50 in very short order.
The same will happen with EV's. The range will increase, the price will come down and it will be up to the consumer to balance off range vs cost. There will be extremely high range cars that cost quite a lot (but reducing over time) and there will be dirt cheap EV's with very little range suitable only for a weeks worth of local commuting on a single charge. Charge speeds will increase, weight and cost will come down.
10 years is a long time in tech once you hit the tipping point of the S curve.
Very commendable.
Sadly the big ticket item that doesn't ever fall in price unlike other high tech consumer products is the motor vehicle.
The best index to measure inflation in car prices used to be the unofficial Mars Bar index. Because the weight and content of the Mars Bar used to be a constant measure of value, and the corresponding retail price was effectively an accurate measure if inflation (unlike the RPI and CPI whose basket of goods and services was a bit of a fiddle and always being adjusted). I don't know if the Mars Bar index still exists. I suspec thte Mars Ba itself is no longer a constant and has alrered in recent years.
Sadly the big ticket item that doesn't ever fall in price unlike other high tech consumer products is the motor vehicle.
The best index to measure inflation in car prices used to be the unofficial Mars Bar index. Because the weight and content of the Mars Bar used to be a constant measure of value, and the corresponding retail price was effectively an accurate measure if inflation (unlike the RPI and CPI whose basket of goods and services was a bit of a fiddle and always being adjusted). I don't know if the Mars Bar index still exists. I suspec thte Mars Ba itself is no longer a constant and has alrered in recent years.
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
In a period of financial stability the manufacturer prints the price on the packet. Not many prices on packets now.
Cheshirecat57
Free Member
Coolcats
LIFE MEMBER
- Jan 24, 2019
- 6,630
- 12,446
- Funster No
- 58,207
- MH
- HymerCar Ayres Rock
There is a lot of us about Gromett who have this interest and had it from a young age, but there are there are also the real agents of change, such as Peter Cochrane, Kevin Warwick and many many more, they have predicted emerging technologies, involved with its development and now retired yet keep on producing, sometimes it seems its all west coast America that has invented everything yet this could not be further than the truth. That is not to say somethings have not emerged from the US but Globally we have some great Technologists. Musk is given much credit for self landing rockets and Tesla Electric cars yet He has not done the R&D but I think it would be fair to say that he is commercialising what the research has done that has gone before, I am not knocking his commercial acumen but I do think this gets mixed up with the actual technologists who do the R&D and engineers who actually build the things.
Often it takes multiple approaches or differing R&D the Americans often claim to have invented Data networking yet Paul Barran (US) and Donald Davies (UK) where both working on similar projects which converged at a smiler moment in time. You may find 'Where Wizards stay up late" and interesting read (its more novel then technical)
Whilst Motorola may be credited with Cellular mobile phones there would have been other companies working with them. Prior to this there was of course Radio Phones which date back to the mid 1940's I recall taking an <Broken link removed>to Phillips Radio Phone in North London to have a unit fitted to the Car (was being transferred from a Mercedes). Because they worked on radio frequency they were expensive and limited to a few thousand units in the UK. (cant imagine how much it must have cost to make a call)
Cheshirecat57
Free Member
VOLVO TRUCKS now have a fully EV 16 tonne and 26 tonne truck that you can order in the system for delivery Summer 2021
Cheshirecat57
Free Member
Is there an argument to replace aforementioned Mars Bar index with Big Mac index ( although it STILL doesn't look like the picture)
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
I think there aimed at city and urban areas where range is not such an issue
You are correct if you are talking about cars. But are talking about a new technology to drive them here. It is the battery that is making EV's expensive and it the price of those that will fall and move down the cost range. It is this that will bring EV's down in price. The motor is actually way cheaper than an ICE engine/gearbox to produce so it really is only the batteries and the low production volume of the resulting cars that keep the price high.
No one is saying he is the sole engineer on those projects. But it is him that has done the basic maths on the practicalities, then persuaded other engineers to work for him. It is him that has organised all this.
Without him, do you think VW, Porsche, BMW etc etc would have electric cars or would they still be lobbying government about CO2 limits and developing new cheats for their diesel cars?
Do you think ULA or NASA would have moved to fully re-usable rocket boosters or full flow staged combustion using methane? OR built something like the starship?
He should be given a lot of credit as an engineer, organiser and businessman for pulling it all together. But no one even himself claims he gets all the credit.
Last edited:
Coolcats
LIFE MEMBER
- Jan 24, 2019
- 6,630
- 12,446
- Funster No
- 58,207
- MH
- HymerCar Ayres Rock
Yes I do EV’s would have happened it’s just Musk started a car company from scratch where the established companies have to sweat their assets and now Musk has heavily invested in Battery tech it would be unlikely he could easily or quickly swap to say Hydrogen or another alternate fuel.
There were self driving competitions before Musk joined the game and he did use 3rd parties for both assembly and technologies
The same for his rockets, again competitions were held for vertical landings so he did not invent these things he capitalised and invested in them he may be a bright bloke but there are a heck of a lot of scientists and engineers behind him. ULA and NASA were seeking new partners, Musk happened to be in the right place at the right time with sufficient funds to pay for this development.
Erm. Do you remember the EV-1? You know the 1st real commercial EV? That was recalled and scrapped? They couldn't sell enough of the to make them profitable. Other than that we were given things like this.
Or this;
The majors weren't going to do it because of sunk capital invested in ICE. The small startups were producing stuff like the above.
He tried using 3rd party tech but it only got him so far. He has since developed whole new systems in AI and a full computer from silicon up. It is ground breaking tech and experts say that Tesla is now 5-10 years ahead of the competition on this front. He is as far as I understand it the only company doing self driving purely using vision. All the rest require high definition GPS maps and Lidar. It is completely new technology he is creating here.
There was only 2 serious experiments with vertical landing that I can recall and only one of them could be class as orbital designs. The DC/X in the early 90's which I followed at the time due to Jerry Pournelle's involvement. His articles in Byte magazine at the time were very interesting.
Here is one of his articles from back then.
Sadly I can't track down any others in the short amount of time I have available. It was seriously exciting at the time and very promising until it was cancelled.
After the DC/X no one was looking at it seriously and the experts were saying it wasn't possible because the fuel you had to save for landing was lost payload and it was so close as to mean practically unusable payloads.
Elon was mocked by the experts and the big names in space, rocketry and engineering. He put every last penny he had into it. ULA had no interesting in doing vertical landings and still don't. They are still not doing fully reusable booster research even after having seen SpaceX take their lunch money.
Also in rocketry. Tell me any other successful full flow staged combustion engine that has flown never mind landed? New tech that no one else could get to work. Point me to any other rocket company that developed a commercial and usable methane engine?
Name me one other person that has gone into 3 major industries and shook them up as much as Elon has in recent times?
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
chrisgreen
Free Member
Broken Link Removed
Coolcats
LIFE MEMBER
- Jan 24, 2019
- 6,630
- 12,446
- Funster No
- 58,207
- MH
- HymerCar Ayres Rock
Grommet I am not going to argue point by point on technology you clearly believe Musk has invented new tech I am saying he has commercialised it.
the claim about AI being 5-10 years in front is debatable just like Microsoft he works with other companies his team learns about it and then ‘develops’ his own version. Until there is a fundemental change in hardware architecture AI is not going much further it’s pretty dumb anyone involved in AI will tell you this.
I am not a Musk fan I respect how he spins things from a commercial perspective. He may call his rocket Starship but it is nota Starship. There is much Hoopla when a rocket launches and a booster lands this as I say was part of competitions round vertical landing he has been clever and commercialised it.
just to add your point about EV1 (and others) shows several things EV’s existed before Musk, total lack of public appetite (lack of understanding of global warming) , emergent technologies such as lithium batteries were not ready, Lack of investment in a charging infrastructure. My Milk has been delivers by an EV since I was a Baby.
Last edited:
- Apr 13, 2019
- 2,312
- 55,101
- Funster No
- 59,884
- MH
- VW 2005 T5 Campervan
- Exp
- Since September 2018
That, was absolutely fantastic!
Good to see 2 spokespersons for this company who not only obviously know their industry, but can talk fluidly, without hesitation or repetition, on a way of enthusing attitudes towards electric automotive charging.
Is this a Solely British venture, and where is it please.
Has actually made me think about EV's seriously for the first time.
Brilliant.
Riva, Clarkson drove that inside bbc office studios, I remember them popping up on auto trader dc 48v with 8 6vTrojan t105 and later the AC motor version. The pack upgrade was Trojan t125 with 50 miles range. The 1/2 tone battery weight made it inefficient up hill.
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
Cheshirecat57
Free Member
Price tag might stop some early-adopters in their tracks as well
- Jan 11, 2010
- 2,872
- 10,378
- Funster No
- 9,901
- MH
- Auto-trail
- Exp
- Well that`s our 14th year & still loving it.
I guess I am one of the great unbelievers in the make believe statement of 2030.
People keep saying 10yrs but it isn't it's now 9yrs and counting, in the real world they haven't yet got a direct replacement for the internal combustion engine.
Battery technology just isn't there, I look at Leisure batteries, how many years have we been using them world wide over in boats, caravans and motorhomes, a huge massive industry, how far have we progressed, gel batteries, so called no maintenance and now lithium, are they really any better than the big traction batteries.
I don't believe they will have a feasible Battery driven vehicle by 2030, they will have something to potter around big cities where these idiot politicians live and work and can't see anything outside of their office in the real world.
The 200 to 300 claimed mileage in perfect summer time conditions will not be achievable in the real world winter driving conditions that will be required by the majority of the people in the country.
People keep saying 10yrs but it isn't it's now 9yrs and counting, in the real world they haven't yet got a direct replacement for the internal combustion engine.
Battery technology just isn't there, I look at Leisure batteries, how many years have we been using them world wide over in boats, caravans and motorhomes, a huge massive industry, how far have we progressed, gel batteries, so called no maintenance and now lithium, are they really any better than the big traction batteries.
I don't believe they will have a feasible Battery driven vehicle by 2030, they will have something to potter around big cities where these idiot politicians live and work and can't see anything outside of their office in the real world.
The 200 to 300 claimed mileage in perfect summer time conditions will not be achievable in the real world winter driving conditions that will be required by the majority of the people in the country.
Cheshirecat57
Free Member
I dont think uou are an “unbeliever”, but the proposed ban is on new vehicles
You ,I and everyone else will have rhe choice to buy new ICE vehicles in 2029
Dependant on your buying style, these will last well into the ‘40s, not sure how that will the affect your decisions then, as today’s new-borns will be the movers and shakers in the 2040’s
You ,I and everyone else will have rhe choice to buy new ICE vehicles in 2029
Dependant on your buying style, these will last well into the ‘40s, not sure how that will the affect your decisions then, as today’s new-borns will be the movers and shakers in the 2040’s
You say he hasn't invented new tech? I gave you a couple of examples above.
There is a fundamental change in the hardware architecture. If you kept abreast of these things you wouldn't make statement that are patently wrong. The new Tesla AI computers are a fundamental advance in AI.
No one has made an orbital class rocket that can land vertically ever. SpaceX were the very 1st to achieve this. There is a HUGE difference between making a rocket that can go up a few 100 or even 1,000 metres and then land again and an orbital class rocket. No one has successfully created a full flow staged combustion engine. Those in the industry have long believed it to be impossible. Both Russian and American engineers have attempted this before and given up on it. SpaceX invented technology to allow it to work. They didn't just repeat the same things that the previous attempts did. SpaceX and Tesla have invented new allows, new processes and new technology too numerous to list.
There has not been a practical, good looking, ICE equivelent EV produced before Tesla came out with the Roadster. That was the point of the roadster. Prior to this everyone thought EV's were slow (they were), short range (they were) and ugly (they were)... Telsa invented lots of new technology to change this. They didn't just buy off the shelf parts and sling it together. They created a new motor design from scratch. The current motors are so far ahead of the competition it is silly.
Last edited:
A tesla 3 is well north of £50k, Porsche Taycan £100k+, a significant uplift from say a like for like non electric Ford focus or an Audi A6 as a comparison.
For a MH to go electric what would be the uplift in price? significant and probably out of the reach of most people. Lets face it a MH is not exactly cheap now. Using the tesla and Porsche as an example that would put a 'standard' £60k MH in the £100-120k bracket. Plus the extra weight, both of those electric cars above are 2000kgs +. Its a pipe dream unless there are significant weight savings in the batteries
For a MH to go electric what would be the uplift in price? significant and probably out of the reach of most people. Lets face it a MH is not exactly cheap now. Using the tesla and Porsche as an example that would put a 'standard' £60k MH in the £100-120k bracket. Plus the extra weight, both of those electric cars above are 2000kgs +. Its a pipe dream unless there are significant weight savings in the batteries
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
You can't compare a Model 3 to a ford focus. It is more in the lines of a mid range BMW.
Anyway they start at £35,000 in the UK for the Model 3 standard range not 50K
Cheshirecat57
Free Member
Kia niro4 petrol 26k
Kia eNiro4 full electric 36k
£1000 a year less to run and worth more when you sell it
And the hephalump in the room that no one wants to talk about,.......................... the motion-lotion for the EV doesn't make Saudi Arabia richer
Kia eNiro4 full electric 36k
£1000 a year less to run and worth more when you sell it
And the hephalump in the room that no one wants to talk about,.......................... the motion-lotion for the EV doesn't make Saudi Arabia richer
glenn2926
Free Member
Looking at panel fit and build quality you’re correct the model three is nearer to an old moskvich.
Coolcats
LIFE MEMBER
- Jan 24, 2019
- 6,630
- 12,446
- Funster No
- 58,207
- MH
- HymerCar Ayres Rock
Not sure of that £35K figure is correct, 39,040 is the lowest price on their stock inventory, and build from scratch is £40K, So lets assume you deduct £3k that still makes it £36,040-£37K
The VW ID 3 is £32,939 take £3K off that makes it £29,990
If you want a cheap EV you could always buy a Renault Twizzy they are around £12K
You can buy a new Golf for around £21,000 which are not shabby cars or build quality
- Aug 18, 2014
- 26,326
- 159,706
- Funster No
- 32,898
- MH
- Transit PVC
- Exp
- 16 years since restarting
The quote was
According to Polestar CEO it takes 24 tonnes of CO2e to make a polestar 2, and 14 tonnes to make a Volvo XC40 on which the 2 is based.
Using electric sourced from wind turbine alone the polestar needs to travel 30k to be at the same carbon footprint as the Volvo. EU standard electric source that increases to 50k.
World standard electric source again an increase to 70k.
So buying an electric car, and running it for say 3 years at 10k a year does not make it a green option
On world EV day.
https://www.am-online.com/news/manu...e-for-uncomfortable-reading-says-polestar-ceo
& this was proved in spades in the 2008 crash when £/€ rate dropped to near parity when it had been based on £1=1,50/60 € .Either one lot had to lose 30% or the other lot increase 50%. Neither happened.
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
Join us or log in to post a reply.
To join in you must be a member of MotorhomeFun
Join MotorhomeFun
Join us, it quick and easy!
Log in
Already a member? Log in here.
Latest journal entries
-
The Land of Guinness 2023
- Kannon Fodda
- Entries: 23
-
May 23 (northern ish) france
- suavecarve
- Entries: 6
Latest entry: Lac de Caniel @ Cany- Barville (cracker),