No Holidays abroad Allowed

[David and Sally]

I think maybe you should reflect
Yes - count me in as a flouter looking for a loophole. Anything I can do to get away I will purposely exploit it as I'm not having a dictatorship government telling me what I can and cannot do and I believe in human rights and civil liberties.

I think maybe you reflect on what you say a bit more.
Dictatorial........not at all. Just doing what they need to to keep us safe.
What you can or cannot do affects the lives of other people. Or their deaths if you go wandering around spreading disease. Worse still, coming back with a variant and spreading that.
Civil liberties........our liberty to stay alive. Sod your human rights. We have rights too and yours don’t override our right to life.

 

[LesW]

Honestly, what a joke, people quoting their 'yooman rights' and 'civil liberties'.

Here's what to do, go anywhere you like do want you want, when you get a tug from the old bill tell them it's against your 'yooman rights' and 'civil liberties', that'll fix things..

Let us know how you get on please.

 

[stewartwebr]

Not so martin, according to the ongoing trials they are resistant to all current variants offering varying levels of protection all of them significant.

All current vaccines are showing different levels of protection against all current and known mutations of COVID 19. But that’s were it becomes difficult and a lot more complex and somewhat more critical to protect as you progress through a vaccination programme and we are at that critical stage. We are suppressing the virus but not sufficiently to suppress mutation. The Virus detects the suppression which in turn can drive mutation. If this were to happen as a new foreign strain were to emerge it could cause chaos.
The most secure and pragmatic approach is to lock our borders and complete mass vaccination as soon as possible.
In an ideal world we would vaccinate the world tomorrow with current vaccines and this would be all over, however, we are fighting a reasonably smart virus. It’s not as smart as say the influenza viruses A-D which cause seasonal flue but not far behind.
In my mind it’s not a big ask to keep with it, we are almost there.

 

[suavecarve]

And that’s where you‘ve got me coming from the wrong direction.

I’m not thinking about my safety, I’m thinking about others I may inadvertently infect. I never said for myself, I’m concerned for others.......particularly my unvaccinated family members.

Sorry if I didn’t make that clear.

Therefore, risking accidentally firing a live round into a crowd and hoping I miss just doesn’t work for me.

I work with the figures to determine what I do so I ll try to put my risk/reward workings out into your thought processes.

IF we are allowed to go legally to France, I would suspect the rate would have to be a maximum of 50/100,000. Roughly 2321 infections per day, I would anticipate we would have to be less than the same figure for UK 2428 per day.

That would roughly be half of what we are on at the moment.
When I get to France (having been double jabbed in all likelihood for over a week) under those circumstances, I fancy my chances of not coming into contact with the total of 32,494 people over that time (at that rate) or every 2,000th person sneezing on me.
Now if i were to be unlucky enough, somehow, to catch it, at present, I would not die (double jabbed)and not very likely to need to hospital treatment.
But lets say I get the virus at the time I bring it back, and it happens to be a yet identified new mutant virus which just happens to be "Of Concern" and my vaccine is one of the 46% that doesnt prevent me infecting another.
If that person that I infect, under those odds catches it, they are likely to have been double vaccinated (or young) and have 90% efficacy in their system.

The rates will probably be lower than 50/100,000 when we go (opinion) and if, like last year it was 25ish in the Uk and a quarter of that in France then the odds decrease even further.

So to use your Russian Roulette scenario. You have one bullet, but how many barrels are there to spin ?

Thats how I work out my risk reward factor and then I factor in my age, fitness, and where I will be going, (where the Germans couldnt find the resistance for 5 years) which increase my odds significantly.

You work yours out differently and fair play to you, but I will be different to you, if allowed

 

[stewartwebr]

We managed it twice last year without a vaccination and this year we would have had both jabs. I think the risk from returning MHer's is very small.

Just be mindful that trials are still ongoing with regard to the effectiveness of viral shedding having been vaccinated. Current vaccines are designed to limit the effect on the body if infected. It was in no way designed to stop the spread. You could therefore be vaccinated, infected and infecting. Trials are showing positive results that inoculated persons do have some protection against shedding but not clear yet. So the vaccination is designed to protect you, not others. Hence the reason we are still advising on social distancing, masks and current stay at home. The message is clear, you may be fully inoculated but you could still kill Granny

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[jessthedog]

I work with the figures to determine what I do so I ll try to put my risk/reward workings out into your thought processes.

IF we are allowed to go legally to France, I would suspect the rate would have to be a maximum of 50/100,000. Roughly 2321 infections per day, I would anticipate we would have to be less than the same figure for UK 2428 per day.

That would roughly be half of what we are on at the moment.
When I get to France (having been double jabbed in all likelihood for over a week) under those circumstances, I fancy my chances of not coming into contact with the total of 32,494 people over that time (at that rate) or every 2,000th person sneezing on me.
Now if i were to be unlucky enough, somehow, to catch it, at present, I would not die (double jabbed)and not very likely to need to hospital treatment.
But lets say I get the virus at the time I bring it back, and it happens to be a yet identified new mutant virus which just happens to be "Of Concern" and my vaccine is one of the 46% that doesnt prevent me infecting another.
If that person that I infect, under those odds catches it, they are likely to have been double vaccinated (or young) and have 90% efficacy in their system.

The rates will probably be lower than 50/100,000 when we go (opinion) and if, like last year it was 25ish in the Uk and a quarter of that in France then the odds decrease even further.

So to use your Russian Roulette scenario. You have one bullet, but how many barrels are there to spin ?

Thats how I work out my risk reward factor and then I factor in my age, fitness, and where I will be going, (where the Germans couldnt find the resistance for 5 years) which increase my odds significantly.

You work yours out differently and fair play to you, but I will be different to you, if allowed

Are the figs should based on the ratio of positives to the number of tests you complete.?

If a country tests 500K people a day and have 5000 cases and another country tests 1m people a day and they also have 5000 cases, I would assume that the country who is testing more, would have less cases of Covid overall.
You will only find cases if you test. So a country could reach the 50/100,000 easier if they aren't testing as much.

 

[Sapper520]

I work with the figures to determine what I do so I ll try to put my risk/reward workings out into your thought processes.

IF we are allowed to go legally to France, I would suspect the rate would have to be a maximum of 50/100,000. Roughly 2321 infections per day, I would anticipate we would have to be less than the same figure for UK 2428 per day.

That would roughly be half of what we are on at the moment.
When I get to France (having been double jabbed in all likelihood for over a week) under those circumstances, I fancy my chances of not coming into contact with the total of 32,494 people over that time (at that rate) or every 2,000th person sneezing on me.
Now if i were to be unlucky enough, somehow, to catch it, at present, I would not die (double jabbed)and not very likely to need to hospital treatment.
But lets say I get the virus at the time I bring it back, and it happens to be a yet identified new mutant virus which just happens to be "Of Concern" and my vaccine is one of the 46% that doesnt prevent me infecting another.
If that person that I infect, under those odds catches it, they are likely to have been double vaccinated (or young) and have 90% efficacy in their system.

The rates will probably be lower than 50/100,000 when we go (opinion) and if, like last year it was 25ish in the Uk and a quarter of that in France then the odds decrease even further.

So to use your Russian Roulette scenario. You have one bullet, but how many barrels are there to spin ?

Thats how I work out my risk reward factor and then I factor in my age, fitness, and where I will be going, (where the Germans couldnt find the resistance for 5 years) which increase my odds significantly.

You work yours out differently and fair play to you, but I will be different to you, if allowed

So now times your figures by however many other thousands of UK residents want to travel and I’m not sure we’ll be doing anyone a favour.

We are desperate to see our loved ones, but not at any cost.

I am yet to hear from one medical expert come out and say it’s a good or logical thing to do.

I’m happy to wait until I get the thumbs up from them.

 

[The Wino]

Are the figs should based on the ratio of positives to the number of tests you complete.?

If a country tests 500K people a day and have 5000 cases and another country tests 1m people a day and they also have 5000 cases, I would assume that the country who is testing more, would have less cases of Covid overall.
You will only find cases if you test. So a country could reach the 50/100,000 easier if they aren't testing as much.

No because it's cases per 100,000 people. In your example 5000 per 500,000 is 1000 per 100,000. 5000 per million is 500 per 100,000. As long as the sample is large enough it will make no difference to the cases per 100,000. If the sample is smaller it would be random whether it was accurate or over or under estimated.

 

[glenn2926]

what happens when you come back from your jaunt with a new variant and then it starts all over again

What makes you so sure they WILL come back with a new variant? Just how do you know this will happen?
I think they would go on tour and come back quite safely having caught nothing.
There are just too many on here that are sure there will be variants that the vaccine cannot cope with and everyone that goes abroad will bring these variants back. I would like to know just how they know this?

 

[Nirvanauk]

There are a lot of experts on here aren't there ?

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[suavecarve]

Are the figs should based on the ratio of positives to the number of tests you complete.?

If a country tests 500K people a day and have 5000 cases and another country tests 1m people a day and they also have 5000 cases, I would assume that the country who is testing more, would have less cases of Covid overall.
You will only find cases if you test. So a country could reach the 50/100,000 easier if they aren't testing as much.

France's figures will always be 65/68ths of ours and Spain will always be 47/68ths of ours so they are per capita to 100,000 people

 

[suavecarve]

So now times your figures by however many other thousands of UK residents want to travel and I’m not sure we’ll be doing anyone a favour.

We are desperate to see our loved ones, but not at any cost.

I am yet to hear from one medical expert come out and say it’s a good or logical thing to do.

I’m happy to wait until I get the thumbs up from them.

We actually agree !
To a certain extent
We wont be going til we are allowed to go. When or if they allow us SAGE will advise HMG who make the decision as to whether to agree with them or not. That is when I make my decision, and you make yours.
Last year SAGE were saying it makes no difference for travel if there are few infections and the countries are of equal parity.
The difference between last year and this year is, many of us will be vaccinated, some of them will be vaccinated, and people are currently concerned about a mutation that is yet to appear, that may not be protected from the vaccination.

The Medical experts will be advising HMG who will announce whatever it is they are going to announce on April 12th which will then be implemented from May 17th. In the meantime they can hang anyone who goes on holiday out of the country as far as I am concerned. Its illegal. Justification of it after those dates is what needs to happen. The rates here and there will be the justification. I just happen to firmly believe their rates will drop to rates seen last year. The signs are already there for Italy and France, but lets wait and see what happens before May 17th. In the meantime, my planning for June 20th continues

Keep safe

 

[suavecarve]

Are the figs should based on the ratio of positives to the number of tests you complete.?

If a country tests 500K people a day and have 5000 cases and another country tests 1m people a day and they also have 5000 cases, I would assume that the country who is testing more, would have less cases of Covid overall.
You will only find cases if you test. So a country could reach the 50/100,000 easier if they aren't testing as much.

Sorry i misread this in my previous reply.

No is the answer.

Longer answer, we currently have a positivity rate of 0.33% whereas Israel last week were on 1.5% and were overjoyed with that.
I thought the Germans were lying through their teeth about their rate, but they arent. They are just losing a lot of people in comparison to positive tests.
Pretty much all of Europe were quite close in terms of positivity rate last time I checked about 10 days ago. But they are nowhere even close to ours which was pretty dam good even before we added a million extra tests per day.
And those tests have a 99.68% accuracy rate which, if correct, cause us to 3,200 false positives a day. They are not currently giving us the differential between Lateral Flow and PCR which makes a mockery of our figures for infections

If i remember rightly, we were about 1 in 45 tests proved positive before our hike in tests to now being 1 in 300, whereas the rest of Europe between 1 in 30 and 1 in 50 proving positive

 

[gus-lopez]

Catalan - 10pm til 06am curfew, land borders closed so can't drive in from France to Spain - are these "normal"

curfew normal here in every region. Not really any problem . Hopefully be lifted after easter.
the land borders for each region are only for spanish nationals & permanent residents.They have no legal meaning for foreign travellers by road,nor do they affect them.
Regional governments have no legal powers to close borders to foreigners. Only the national government can do this & they haven't.Foreign travellers have been coming & going for months In to & out of spain & every region whilst we cannot leave the regions we live in.

France's figures will always be 65/68ths of ours and Spain will always be 47/68ths of ours so they are per capita to 100,000 people

That's ok if you believe that 68 is the UK figure. Most consider it is 80 mill. You only have to see the UK govs woefulnigh on 100% under estimating of how many "Eu citizens are in the UK" to know that they haven't really got a clue

 

[jessthedog]

Sorry i misread this in my previous reply.

No is the answer.

Longer answer, we currently have a positivity rate of 0.33% whereas Israel last week were on 1.5% and were overjoyed with that.
I thought the Germans were lying through their teeth about their rate, but they arent. They are just losing a lot of people in comparison to positive tests.
Pretty much all of Europe were quite close in terms of positivity rate last time I checked about 10 days ago. But they are nowhere even close to ours which was pretty dam good even before we added a million extra tests per day.
And those tests have a 99.68% accuracy rate which, if correct, cause us to 3,200 false positives a day. They are not currently giving us the differential between Lateral Flow and PCR which makes a mockery of our figures for infections

If i remember rightly, we were about 1 in 45 tests proved positive before our hike in tests to now being 1 in 300, whereas the rest of Europe between 1 in 30 and 1 in 50 proving positive

Thanks for that. I'm just astonished at the UK testing rate at the moment. If the false positives are being counted, as you say our true Covid cases are lower then are being reported.

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[gus-lopez]

**Oh 5516 & 201 here for today

 

[Landy Andy]

I think its a gimme that the vaccine will not stop you getting it, it may prevent you getting it.

My wife has had a member of staff fail a school fast test, who then went to have a full test, which they also failed. Upon questioning the fact this person had been vaccinated, and still caught it, my wife was informed that “it doesn't stop you getting virus, it just stops you suffering from the virus“.

 

[suavecarve]

Thanks for that. I'm just astonished at the UK testing rate at the moment. If the false positives are being counted, as you say our true Covid cases are lower then are being reported.

I dont want to be a conspiracy theorist, but we have jumped and we are counting both styles of test which werent being counted pre March 8th

We only did 1.2 million today, we have been doing 1.6 million on some days.

As you say, an extra million tests will bring an amount of more positives but the type of test brings with it an amount (0.32%) of false positives which works out to be the 3,200 per day.

 

[suavecarve]

Most consider it is 80 mill.

I can find no links at all to anything that suggests we have 80 million residents before the year 2035

 

[Northernraider]

We managed it twice last year without a vaccination and this year we would have had both jabs. I think the risk from returning MHer's is very small.

The word ‘ think ‘

Certainly less risky than the thousands of lorry drivers that arent practicing social distancing or mask wearing but are excempt from the tests etc.

Witnessed groups of them both on the ferry from greece to italy and at the channel tunnel standing in groups no masks insight and not distancing.

Then there was the 30 -40 sprinter vans with 3 or 4 romanians inside transporting dogs in to the uk again with no masks and passengers swapping in and out various vans.


Its all smoke and mirrors ...ive had to have 3 tests in 10 days while travelling alone in a motorhome always wearing a mask whilst outside it.

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[Jonny1953]

Yes - count me in as a flouter looking for a loophole. Anything I can do to get away I will purposely exploit it as I'm not having a dictatorship government telling me what I can and cannot do and I believe in human rights and civil liberties.

Can't be a "dictatorship government" as our government were voted in at a general election, you might find that dictatorships don't actually hold proper elections

 

[Northernraider]

As for going abroad most countries will require PCR tests to enter and to return home test before departure 10 days quarantine and tests day 2 and 8. I can't see that requirement ending any time soon.

And its pointless...i took my day 2 test on sunday ....theres no way you can do that test to yourself the way the professionals do it .... Its just a way of encorouging folk to stay at home the 10 days and a money maker for some companies.

 

[Chris]

There are a lot of experts on here aren't there ?

Absolutely . The experts on here put Chris Whitty to shame.

I am just praying I make it through the night.

 

[denisejoe]

What makes you so sure they WILL come back with a new variant? Just how do you know this will happen?
I think they would go on tour and come back quite safely having caught nothing.
There are just too many on here that are sure there will be variants that the vaccine cannot cope with and everyone that goes abroad will bring these variants back. I would like to know just how they know this?

Are you 100% certain they won’t bring back anything?

 

[Barclaybasher]

Laws are written to protect the interests of the many, against the actions of the few.

Totally the wrong way round !

Laws are written to enrich the few at the expense of the many...........

Just think who makes the 'laws' - certainly not 'the few'

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[gus-lopez]

I can find no links at all to anything that suggests we have 80 million residents before the year 2035

the general concensus is nearly 80 million, whether legal or illegal.
The gov .uk stated there were "only" 3, 1 million EU nationals in the UK 4 years back.
Why have they signed up to settled status 5,1million so far ,with another 700k , eu & non-eu,having left in the last 10 months by all accounts' ? Makes yu wonder how many more applications will turn up?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9358195/Number-EU-citizens-living-UK-HIGHER-Brexit.html

 

[Larrynwin]

Reading through posts it seems that it’s ok for “me” to travel safely into Europe in my motorhome and if “I” am careful I won’t bring any new variant back, but what about everyone else that is allowed to travel for their holiday , there could well be many thousands , not just “me” who are not in the isolation of a motorhome, they will flock over by air and ferries and it won’t be one that brings back the new variant it could be several that spread it around the U.K.
Remember how virulent the Kent variant was ? Well a new variant that dodges the safety of the present vaccines and “me” and the many thousands who must have a holiday could put us all in a really bad place.
Patience is a virtue

 

[suavecarve]

the general concensus is nearly 80 million, whether legal or illegal.
The gov .uk stated there were "only" 3, 1 million EU nationals in the UK 4 years back.
Why have they signed up to settled status 5,1million so far ,with another 700k , eu & non-eu,having left in the last 10 months by all accounts' ? Makes yu wonder how many more applications will turn up?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9358195/Number-EU-citizens-living-UK-HIGHER-Brexit.html

I see a differential of 1.5 million applications and 700,000 leaving potentially increasing our population by 800,000 to 68.8 million
Nowhere near 80 million

A misread of 800,000 to 80,000,000 ?

 

[Carol]

They were voted in by a blind nation of brainwashed Nuggets.

And as such they can do as they please knowing those same blinded wont hold them to account. They've set a president on lying to the publics face and laughing it off. All the while breaking their own rules and doing as they please.

They were voted in by a blind nation of brainwashed Nuggets.

And as such they can do as they please knowing those same blinded wont hold them to account. They've set a president on lying to the publics face and laughing it off. All the while breaking their own rules and doing as they please.

Modern day elections are built on manipulation and deceat...spending milions on feeding the public with clever based mind games.

Exactly the same way product advertising now works.

Even youtube employs trolls to steer comments on news feeds the way the customer wants.

Conservatives current game is discrediting SNP .....


Hate to imagine the damage the clown party is going to do over the next 10 years. Many on here will be selling their vans to pay for health insurance

Much like Scotland then,. when I can take Sturgeons rubbish and lies seriously but then that's why this thread was about motorhomes and not politics and I have utmost respect for your facts about the lorry drivers and dog imports but every thread doesn't need to be political.

 

[suavecarve]

Reading through posts it seems that it’s ok for “me” to travel safely into Europe in my motorhome and if “I” am careful I won’t bring any new variant back, but what about everyone else that is allowed to travel for their holiday , there could well be many thousands , not just “me” who are not in the isolation of a motorhome, they will flock over by air and ferries and it won’t be one that brings back the new variant it could be several that spread it around the U.K.
Remember how virulent the Kent variant was ? Well a new variant that dodges the safety of the present vaccines and “me” and the many thousands who must have a holiday could put us all in a really bad place.
Patience is a virtue

I can only take personal responsibility for me and my actions. As can you.
HMG make the decisions for the masses. We just have to abide by those decisions.
Which from what I can see, everybody is stating they are or will.

I will go, if allowed, until someone can tell me how my thinking is flawed, and my risk assessment is wrong, for me.

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