No Holidays abroad Allowed

[deleted79651]

I'm taking it that you haven't seen the posts pondering whether they are manipulating the figures, some of these are weeks or even months behind and now also contain people who havent been tested. Doesnt it seem odd to you that there have been hardly any flu deaths this year?

Turning to actions Its a long way off proven that Lockdown is the only course of action open to us, Spain and France have had severe lockdowns much stricter than ours and has it put them ahead of the rest of europe? It doesnt seem so whereas Sweden has had rough patches but no lockdowns and has gone up and down just the same.

Our course has altered now (BIG)thanks to the vaccination campaign but there is still a will to keep us under control extending the questionable covid regulations and reinforced by the bill to stop people protesting. For me the site of Police arresting the women on Clapham Common due to Covid regs was basically locking sane people up to prevent them from being a danger to themselves - dangerous territory for any police force.

There was an article in yesterday's Guardian reporting the UK overall COVID death figures at 150,011 that highlighted the reduced flu deaths, and this was attributed to COVID having beaten flu to the punch. IIRC, it's the penultimate paragraph and a quote from Prof David Spiegelhalter.

UK COVID Deaths over 150,000

Steve

 

[ADJF]

I thought the government was allowing up to 20 days to carry over into 2021/2022
Does this not apply to you?

Government to allow employees to carry over annual leave for two years

Employees who are unable to take all of their statutory annual leave entitlement in the current year will be able to carry it over into the next two years.The amendment to the Working Time Regulations, which was announced on 27 March 2020, has been put in place to support employees ...

employeebenefits.co.uk

I don’t believe it is enforceable. We are being forced to take 40% leave by the end of June

 

[The Wino]

There was an article in yesterday's Guardian reporting the UK overall COVID death figures at 150,011 that highlighted the reduced flu deaths, and this was attributed to COVID having beaten flu to the punch. IIRC, it's the penultimate paragraph and a quote from Prof David Spiegelhalter.

UK COVID Deaths over 150,000

Steve

All the figures seem to have had very little discussion in the mainstream media which seems to have concentrated on the vaccine program especially the they're all out against AZ slants. Is it good manipulation by people wanting to divert attention from the death stats or just that everyone is desperate for some good news....who knows!

 

[jongood]

There was an article in yesterday's Guardian reporting the UK overall COVID death figures at 150,011 that highlighted the reduced flu deaths, and this was attributed to COVID having beaten flu to the punch. IIRC, it's the penultimate paragraph and a quote from Prof David Spiegelhalter.

UK COVID Deaths over 150,000

Steve

I find the last paragraph the most telling - it says that more people are dying at home without adding 'because they re too scared to go to hospital'.

 

[deleted79651]

I find the last paragraph the most telling - it says that more people are dying at home without adding 'because they re too scared to go to hospital'.

No suggestion that people are scared to go into hospital.

Steve

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[jongood]

.

No suggestion that people are scared to go into hospital.

Steve

last paragraph Steve

However, deaths in private homes remain high, with the number of people dying at home in England and Wales 30% above average during the week to 12 March, according to figures from the ONS.

Do you have an alternative theory?

Jon

 

[Larrynwin]

I still believe there is a yawning gap between the way different countries arrive at their statistics and that much of Europe are on a par of deaths per capita with the U.K.

 

[suavecarve]

There was an article in yesterday's Guardian reporting the UK overall COVID death figures at 150,011 that highlighted the reduced flu deaths, and this was attributed to COVID having beaten flu to the punch. IIRC, it's the penultimate paragraph and a quote from Prof David Spiegelhalter.

UK COVID Deaths over 150,000

Steve

What she needs to do is compare the death rate in France, Germany etc in comparison to the previous wave and then come back and say "Maybe it was a different strain that caused the different result between 1st and 2nd wave.

 

[Peter and Julie]

I think the only vaccine tested in both the UK and South Africa is the Novavax one which is still awaiting approval. It was 90% effective against the UK variants but only 60% in South Africa. Keeping ahead of the variants is going to be a challenge and I think we will be living with some restrictions for a long time yet. Hopefully not too many.

Almost any med student ,nurse or doctor will tell you that any 'vaccine' that offers over 50% protection is good.

 

[deleted79651]

.

last paragraph Steve

However, deaths in private homes remain high, with the number of people dying at home in England and Wales 30% above average during the week to 12 March, according to figures from the ONS.

Do you have an alternative theory?

Jon

People may choose to die at home; Medics may decide that the hospital admission won't help, especially for the frail elderly, or people who lack capacity [the 'underlying conditions' cohort mentioned in the Daily Death Rates]; or the family may not wish to see their frail gran/grandad admitted to hospital, not least because they do not want the distress of saying goodbye via an iPad or similar. All/any of these, and probably other examples as well, could apply ahead of 'fear of hospital admissions' [on what grounds? quality of care?], but if it's a case of COVID getting to me before Winter Flu does, I would probably prefer to die at home. Not for lack of quality of care/fear of infection, more for peace of mind, knowing that I had reached the end of the road and that any temporary respite would add only quantity, rather than quality, to my final days.

Steve

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[MITHRANDIR]

What i find astonishing is that some people believe that there will be a return to "normal".
There is no "normal" in the world of covid the quicker that fact dawns on people the better imv.
Lockdowns and travel bans are a very blunt tool, imv, peoples habits need to change.
A break in the chain of transmission is what's needed, that is sustainable over the long term.
Lockdowns fundamentally cannot achieve this in any sustainable manner.

 

[deleted79651]

What i find astonishing is that some people believe that there will be a return to "normal".
There is no "normal" in the world of covid the quicker that fact dawns on people the better imv.
Lockdowns and travel bans are a very blunt tool, imv, peoples habits need to change.
A break in the chain of transmission is what's needed, that is sustainable over the long term.
Lockdowns fundamentally cannot achieve this in any sustainable manner.

Prof Devi Sridhar has often cited the lockdown and Border closure as the first steps in stemming the infection flow, reducing imports and breaking the chain of infection. It's what Jacinda Ardern,NZ Prime Minister, described as the 'Go early, go hard' counter attack on the virus. The more nuanced work is to use the breathing space created to develop practical protocols such as social distancing for indoors and outdoors, research into face mask efficacy etc, vaccine development etc, whilst using Track & Trace during the low infection rates period to eliminate the virus. At that stage, the inevitable mini flare ups of new infections, often associated with borders reopening, can be dealt with on a much more localised scale and the wider economy can be restarted, albeit in a 'new normal' guise that may well kill off hand shaking and other social norms.
NZ has done this, and people are able to visit cafes, public events etc, without the infections and death rates that UK and other countries have experienced.
Prof Christina Pagel in the Guardian yesterday was quite scathing in her assessment of the UK approach, and warns of a repeat performance [3rd para onwards].

UK COVID Deaths over 150,000

Steve

 

[suavecarve]

Prof Devi Sridhar has often cited the lockdown and Border closure as the first steps in stemming the infection flow, reducing imports and breaking the chain of infection. It's what Jacinda Ardern,NZ Prime Minister, described as the 'Go early, go hard' counter attack on the virus. The more nuanced work is to use the breathing space created to develop practical protocols such as social distancing for indoors and outdoors, research into face mask efficacy etc, vaccine development etc, whilst using Track & Trace during the low infection rates period to eliminate the virus. At that stage, the inevitable mini flare ups of new infections, often associated with borders reopening, can be dealt with on a much more localised scale and the wider economy can be restarted, albeit in a 'new normal' guise that may well kill off hand shaking and other social norms.
NZ has done this, and people are able to visit cafes, public events etc, without the infections and death rates that UK and other countries have experienced.
Prof Christina Pagel in the Guardian yesterday was quite scathing in her assessment of the UK approach, and warns of a repeat performance [3rd para onwards].

UK COVID Deaths over 150,000

Steve

Do you read anything else apart from that article ?
Or do you believe that article and the young lady you have now quoted twice who has obviously failed to notice the difference in death/infection rate between the first and second wave which has occurred all over Europe and decided to blame HMG.

Is there a specific date in mind you had for UK using the "Go early go hard" approach ? if that date wasnt before March 2020 that policy would not have worked here as the horse had bolted.

 

[deleted79651]

Do you read anything else apart from that article ?
Or do you believe that article and the young lady you have now quoted twice who has obviously failed to notice the difference in death/infection rate between the first and second wave which has occurred all over Europe and decided to blame HMG.

Is there a specific date in mind you had for UK using the "Go early go hard" approach ? if that date wasnt before March 2020 that policy would not have worked here as the horse had bolted.

Snidey and supercilious. I won't retaliate save that the Professors I have quoted are specialists and UK/Scottish Government SAGE Advisers. The first time I mentioned Prof Sridhar, I referred to her Twitter feed, her Guardian articles, and her C4 News appearances, so, yes, I do read other than Guardian articles.

Steve

 

[Red Sonja]

Totally agree with the new rules. Also noticed that it appears we can travel to the Republic of Ireland as long as we don't use that country to go to another country. So maybe a drive along the Wild Atlantic Way is on the cards? The Isle of Man is also possible but I wouldn't recommend it for motorhomes.

Ireland is still very much in lockdown at the moment. You can only travel 5 miles from Where you live. I constantly monitor RTE news as I'm waiting to visit my house in Ireland to do some work on it. Its actually on the Wild Atlantic Way as well.

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[jongood]

Snidey and supercilious. I won't retaliate save that the Professors I have quoted are specialists and UK/Scottish Government SAGE Advisers. The first time I mentioned Prof Sridhar, I referred to her Twitter feed, her Guardian articles, and her C4 News appearances, so, yes, I do read other than Guardian articles.

Steve

Thats a bit harsh but yes he can take it .

Oh dear lord not another NZ advocate. NZ is a sparcely populated island 1000 miles from anywhere. Whereas as we are a major transport hub , densely populated with lots of coming and going. The things we got wrong, were to scare people to death of going to hospital, discharging people from hospitals into care ho,mes without testing and failing to check that people coming in were free of the virus. locking down a week earlier wouldnt have made much difference IMHO.

It aint over yet but lets wait and see whether history judges that shutting down our health and education systems, forcing millions of people out of work, a landslide of personal abuses etc were worth saving the lives of a lot of people who would have and still are dying of other things anyway.

 

[Sandancers]

From today's Evening Standard;

Foreign holidays are unlikely to get the go-ahead until August, according to senior government figures.

Officials have warned that the government’s review of foreign holidays, due on April 12, will not recommend the restarting of international leisure travel until later in the summer.

The government’s roadmap out of lockdown has touted May 17 as the earliest possible date people would be able to take foreign holidays.

But this is looking increasingly unlikely and those who attempt to leave England to go on holiday will be fined £5,000 under new laws that kick in on Monday.

A high ranking source told the Sunday Times that the May 17 date was now looking “very optimistic” and said: “August is looking like the most likely moment.”

Officials have warned that even when the ban is lifted people will only be able to travel easily to countries with good vaccination rates, like Israel.

A Whitehall official familiar with discussions between the Department for Transport and the travel industry said: “There will be a system of travel corridors to green-list countries with good vaccination rates. Israel, here we come!”

One plan under consideration is a traffic-light system that would allow travel to “green list” countries with very low rates of infection.

Passengers coming from safe countries would simply take a lateral flow test on their return without needing to quarantine.

Those coming from a country on the “amber list”, nations with moderate rates of infection, would need a negative PCR test before travel. They could also be required to quarantine and take a lateral flow test on their return.

Anyone coming from a “red list” country, with very high cases of coronavirus, would be required to quarantine in an airport hotel for two weeks.

Europe is currently in the grips of a third wave of Covid-19 and countries like France, where the virus is surging, could be added to the red list.

Out of popular summer holiday destinations, only Portugal has a lower infection rate than Britain, with 30 cases per 100,000.

The figure is 130 in Germany, 260 in Italy, 350 in Sweden and 370 in France.

Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M), told Times Radio: “What we don’t want is new variants coming in that undo all the good that our vaccination programme has done.”

In England, people will be able to stay in self-contained accommodation from April 12.

Hotels and holiday parks are expected to follow on May 17.

But with most hotels, cottages and guest houses in Britain booked up, another official told the Sunday Times: “A lot of people are going to be taking a lot of expensive holidays in not very nice places.”

 

[deleted79651]

Thats a bit harsh but yes he can take it .

Oh dear lord not another NZ advocate. NZ is a sparcely populated island 1000 miles from anywhere. Whereas as we are a major transport hub , densely populated with lots of coming and going. The things we got wrong, were to scare people to death of going to hospital, discharging people from hospitals into care ho,mes without testing and failing to check that people coming in were free of the virus. locking down a week earlier wouldnt have made much difference IMHO.

It aint over yet but lets wait and see whether history judges that shutting down our health and education systems, forcing millions of people out of work, a landslide of personal abuses etc were worth saving the lives of a lot of people who would have and still are dying of other things anyway.

I'm happy to disagree with views expressed bu fellow members, but these can be achieved without a supercilious tone.

Moving on. I do agree with the NZ approach, as do people like Prof Devi Sridhar. Her WHO role supports the closure of Borders to limit the import of infctions; I don't recall anywhere where she said 'but UK couldn't do so, because it is an international hub'. On the contrary, it's a compelling reason for doing the short/sharp lockdown, so that it bites quickly and deeply, but is short lived and then the economy recovers when it reopens. In a nutshell, COVID was always going to wreak economic havoc [which is why Taiwan, S.Korea etc also adopted a similar 'go early, go hard' approach, albeit those countries have experience of SARS and other epidemics, so they were able to put a well rehearsd programme into place, on a lower key]. The more successful countries avoided the 'Lockdown/Reopen/Lockdown' cycle where people and businesses have no idea whether they're coming or going [or NOT going as in travel].

It's probably fair to say that you and I have different views on hospital admissions and that's fair enough. We can be polite about our differences, not least because it won't have any impact on the outcome of the COVID pandemic. Every post/conversation provides an opportunity to learn and/or revise one's opinion and that is something that I value.

Steve

 

[jongood]

I'm happy to disagree with views expressed bu fellow members, but these can be achieved without a supercilious tone.

Moving on. I do agree with the NZ approach, as do people like Prof Devi Sridhar. Her WHO role supports the closure of Borders to limit the import of infctions; I don't recall anywhere where she said 'but UK couldn't do so, because it is an international hub'. On the contrary, it's a compelling reason for doing the short/sharp lockdown, so that it bites quickly and deeply, but is short lived and then the economy recovers when it reopens. In a nutshell, COVID was always going to wreak economic havoc [which is why Taiwan, S.Korea etc also adopted a similar 'go early, go hard' approach, albeit those countries have experience of SARS and other epidemics, so they were able to put a well rehearsd programme into place, on a lower key]. The more successful countries avoided the 'Lockdown/Reopen/Lockdown' cycle where people and businesses have no idea whether they're coming or going [or NOT going as in travel].

It's probably fair to say that you and I have different views on hospital admissions and that's fair enough. We can be polite about our differences, not least because it won't have any impact on the outcome of the COVID pandemic. Every post/conversation provides an opportunity to learn and/or revise one's opinion and that is something that I value.

Steve

Can you not see the massive difference between us and NZ? Its very different, if you havent visited you should go ( when allowed). Yes closing borders has a place but it would make little difference now compared to the massive effect on business and sanity. It has also been proved that we cannot completely close our borders especially in Kent.

Testing or quarantine ? yes really good idea because its more likely to pick up cases that will benefit everyone and do far less damage to our already battered economy.

Not sure about the reference to my view on hospital admissions, are you suggesting that the hospitals are under pressure at present? Sir Simon Stevens who is the current head of NHS was widely reported as saying that they were not earlier this week, and one of the features of this later wave is that the hospital numbers seem to be at a lower level than previous waves even in France.

 

[deleted79651]

Can you not see the massive difference between us and NZ? Its very different, if you havent visited you should go ( when allowed). Yes closing borders has a place but it would make little difference now compared to the massive effect on business and sanity. It has also been proved that we cannot completely close our borders especially in Kent.

Testing or quarantine ? yes really good idea because its more likely to pick up cases that will benefit everyone and do far less damage to our already battered economy.

Not sure about the reference to my view on hospital admissions, are you suggesting that the hospitals are under pressure at present? Sir Simon Stevens who is the current head of NHS was widely reported as saying that they were not earlier this week, and one of the features of this later wave is that the hospital numbers seem to be at a lower level than previous waves even in France.

The Borders closure is, AFAIK, a standard WHO procedure, so it could have been effected. Hospital admissions relate to your comment about 'scared to go into hospital' and my earlier reasons why someone may choose to stay [and dies] at home, rather than doing so in hospital. I never mentioned hospital pressures. UK hospital admissions are indeed lower than in the first wave last year, partly because of the vaccination programme, albeit that 1 in 25 of newly inoculated people were infected just before, or immediately after the jab. Behavioural scientists' first reaction is that it is caused by relaxation of social distancing et seq before the vaccine has become effective, but more work is needed/underway to get a definitive answer.

The UK economy could have been less battered by the earlier, fuller lockdown, but that is past. There are methods of restoring the economy without recourse to tax increases. Some are tried and tested over [literally] centuries [issues of longer term or even perpetual Gilts] and others are new, from the Modern Monetary Theorists on which Professor Richard Murphy has written a number of explanatory blogs [http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/] demonstrating that Quantitative Easing is not traditional borrowing.

Steve

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[gus-lopez]

I don’t believe it is enforceable. We are being forced to take 40% leave by the end of June

It states that the working time regulations have been amended, which makes it legally enforceable.

On the contrary, it's a compelling reason for doing the short/sharp lockdown, so that it bites quickly and deeply, but is short lived and then the economy recovers when it reopens.

So you shut Heathrow for a week ,2 weeks ,a month but as soon as it reopens the 250,000 per day will soon have The infection rate back where it was

 

[deleted79651]

It states that the working time regulations have been amended, which makes it legally enforceable.

So you shut Heathrow for a week ,2 weeks ,a month but as soon as it reopens the 250,000 per day will soon have The infection rate back where it was

No. I posted earlier that the shutdown is part of the containment phase until infection numbers can be drivenlow enough for Track & Trace to identify infectees very quickly, leading to elimination [not eradication] of COVID cases. At that stage, infections should be low enough for local 'flare ups' to be handled by local Track & Trace NHS/Local Authority Teams who have years of experience of this type of operation, so that the rest of the economy can be reopened cautiously but without the Lockdown/Reopen/Lockdown cycl that causes greater economic damage. Testing new arrivals at airports + enforced quarantine regs can then prevent infection rates rising again.

Steve

 

[The Lord Squid]

Do you read anything else apart from that article ?
Or do you believe that article and the young lady you have now quoted twice who has obviously failed to notice the difference in death/infection rate between the first and second wave which has occurred all over Europe and decided to blame HMG.

Is there a specific date in mind you had for UK using the "Go early go hard" approach ? if that date wasnt before March 2020 that policy would not have worked here as the horse had bolted.

In what way is "young lady" relevant?

 

[gus-lopez]

Testing new arrivals at airports

They struggled to check 18,000/day arriving recently with many hours delays to passport control so I cannot see how they can process & test 20,000+ per hour?

 

[deleted79651]

They struggled to check 18,000/day arriving recently with many hours delays to passport control so I cannot see how they can process & test 20,000+ per hour?

The onus is on Government to recruit staff to test & quarantine. They have had 12 months, and there are lots of newly unemployed available to take up job offers quickly.

Steve

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[The Wino]

Thats a bit harsh but yes he can take it .

Oh dear lord not another NZ advocate. NZ is a sparcely populated island 1000 miles from anywhere. Whereas as we are a major transport hub , densely populated with lots of coming and going. The things we got wrong, were to scare people to death of going to hospital, discharging people from hospitals into care ho,mes without testing and failing to check that people coming in were free of the virus. locking down a week earlier wouldnt have made much difference IMHO.

It aint over yet but lets wait and see whether history judges that shutting down our health and education systems, forcing millions of people out of work, a landslide of personal abuses etc were worth saving the lives of a lot of people who would have and still are dying of other things anyway.

And yet others seem intent on comparing Sweden's death rates to far more populous European countries (as they like their approach) whilst conveniently ignoring the gulf in deaths between Sweden and the other Nordic countries. Also they think Sweden's approach might be worth the deaths despite any economc benefits compared to the other Nordic countries presumably just to visit pubs.

 

[suavecarve]

In what way is "young lady" relevant?

The fact that she is a lady, and her age was mentioned.

Edit: I have just noticed that the post that I replied to has disappeared. Within the post great reference was made to the person in question, who happened to be female and further her age was brought into the subject in reference to her being young. WIth that in mind you may not have been aware of that with the disappearance of that post, and all that posters others posts within this thread. Which may make my post look as if I have used the phrase "Young lady" inappropriately.

At time of writing, and with it being a reply to a post, it was never meant as nothing more than a description of the young lady however you cannot see that.

 

[Larby]

 

[Rob Hammond]

View attachment 478340

Those were the days .