French Lockdown

[suavecarve]

Isn't that what we already have?
A ban on foreign travel that is.

It is.

Waste of time even having an announcement in 3 weeks about what they might do 5 weeks after that if you ask some people reading too much into some press speculation

 

[rod_vw]

On Andrew Marr this morning.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said booking a holiday now would be "premature" and "potentially risky".

"We are not going to do anything which puts at risk this national effort to control this pandemic," he tells the BBC.

He says he is not going to rule anything in or out and the government has to take things step-by-step.

 

[Barclaybasher]

On Andrew Marr this morning.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said booking a holiday now would be "premature" and "potentially risky".

"We are not going to do anything which puts at risk this national effort to control this pandemic," he tells the BBC.

He says he is not going to rule anything in or out and the government has to take things step-by-step.

Typical politicians answer - can't/not able to say yes or no

Waste of time and newsprint

 

[rod_vw]

Typical politicians answer - can't/not able to say yes or no

Waste of time and newsprint

In many ways I agree Vic.

BUT would I or you be willing to provide a better answer if we were in the same position?

 

[Larrynwin]

I just don’t see the point of getting U.K. out of lockdown with a fair degree of normality then letting the brakes off allowing freedom to travel and kicking it all off with another lockdown here.
The only sensible way while the virus is rampant elsewhere is to strictly control all movement in and out of U.K. with vaccination verification and Q10 for all incoming.

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[Barclaybasher]

In many ways I agree Vic.

BUT would I or you be willing to provide a better answer if we were in the same position?

The answer was the only one possible - asking the (stupid) question caused the waste of time and a 'story'.....or rather - a non-story

 

[MITHRANDIR]

Typical politicians answer - can't/not able to say yes or no

Waste of time and newsprint

I remember Matt Hancock, either going to or coming from 10 downing street, can't remember which, it was on bbc news, right at the beginning of covid when it was in italy, but not here one of the reporters shouted to him, Laura kuenssberg i think, something along the lines of how safe we are and will it end up here, he replied along the lines of nothing to worry about, it won't come here.
Understatement of the century??
Politicians wouldn't know the truth if it smacked them in the face
Nor are they likely at telling it even if they know.
They are all well schooled in not giving a straight answer.
One thing they excel at is arse covering and incompetence.

 

[The Wino]

In many ways I agree Vic.

BUT would I or you be willing to provide a better answer if we were in the same position?

I think it's actually a remarkably sensible answer for a politician! A lot better than definite answers.

 

[ADJF]

I just don’t see the point of getting U.K. out of lockdown with a fair degree of normality then letting the brakes off allowing freedom to travel and kicking it all off with another lockdown here.

I do see the point, it’s called rebuilding the economy after these unnecessary lockdowns

 

[Larrynwin]

I do see the point, it’s called rebuilding the economy after these unnecessary lockdowns

How much of economy can we build if we shut down again, by restricting overseas travel our economy especially tourism and hospitality can still operate with the boost of staycation money , not the best but to bring a variant virus back from Europe could be disastrous .

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[Skez]

I have to abide by the rules set out by different countries (here and abroad) - but that is it !

When the 'rules' change I will travel, visit pubs and restaurants - why wouldn't I ?

If the rules say you can't - you don't - when the rules say you can - you can choose........

Agreed.

But how long do people think that the population will tolerate being locked into our relatively small island. The remainder of the year? 2022? 2023?

What if the covid and its variants keep coming?

At what point will the British public demand that life must go on?

Just asking!

 

[The Wino]

Agreed.

But how long do people think that the population will tolerate being locked into our relatively small island. The remainder of the year? 2022? 2023?

What if the covid and its variants keep coming?

At what point will the British public demand that life must go on?

Just asking!

I think if we get to the point where life inside the uk can be normal including sports events music cinema etc and the cost is loss of foreign travel or foreign travel with strict limits and quarantine etc most would be very happy.

 

[suavecarve]

I m still waiting for an answer as to what level of infection, if any, would people feel it is suitable to be able to go abroad for a jolly and return, double jabbed, without Q10 that HMG go for ? nothing else really matters.

Mine is/was and always has been 50/100,000 14 days ?

I keep reading "not safe", I would just like to know what is safe in your opinions to be able to do it.

 

[chaser]

Agreed.

But how long do people think that the population will tolerate being locked into our relatively small island. The remainder of the year? 2022? 2023?

What if the covid and its variants keep coming?

At what point will the British public demand that life must go on?

Just asking!

Looks like being the rest of some people's life

 

[glenn2926]

I m still waiting for an answer as to what level of infection, if any, would people feel it is suitable to be able to go abroad for a jolly and return, double jabbed, without Q10 that HMG go for ? nothing else really matters.

Mine is/was and always has been 50/100,000 14 days ?

I keep reading "not safe", I would just like to know what is safe in your opinions to be able to do it.

I do think this is not the best site to ask this question. The demographic of the members means a lot will be much more risk averse than a site with more younger members. Your figures will certainly do for me to travel abroad. I’ll have my second vaccination on 16th May and will be hoping to go abroad anytime after about June. Can’t go in June as we’re hoping to go on to Scotland after a couple of nights in Northumberland.

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[Skez]

I think if we get to the point where life inside the uk can be normal including sports events music cinema etc and the cost is loss of foreign travel or foreign travel with strict limits and quarantine etc most would be very happy.

Which I suppose is fine if your interests are going to sports events, concerts and the cinema - Unfortunately none of those things would compensate me for the loss of freedom to travel.

 

[138go]

I m still waiting for an answer as to what level of infection, if any, would people feel it is suitable to be able to go abroad for a jolly and return, double jabbed, without Q10 that HMG go for ? nothing else really matters.

Mine is/was and always has been 50/100,000 14 days ?

I keep reading "not safe", I would just like to know what is safe in your opinions to be able to do it.

Already after one vaccination, we feel safer. I watch the rate of infection locally and I'm happy that every day the figures are coming down. Throughout lockdown, we've been out every day, to walk the dog. We don't wash the shopping or spray mail and parcels with disinfectant, just to give an idea of our anxiety levels.

My feeling is that we need to be a bit patient and watch and wait. It's not just about the rate of infection. I want to see what's going to happen with the variant situation, I think that's the biggest concern.

My greatest fear is another lockdown. This isn't just for me personally but for my family, my son is one of the 3million excluded, for my grandchildren who need to be in school and our economy.

 

[DBK]

I m still waiting for an answer as to what level of infection, if any, would people feel it is suitable to be able to go abroad for a jolly and return, double jabbed, without Q10 that HMG go for ? nothing else really matters.

Mine is/was and always has been 50/100,000 14 days ?

I keep reading "not safe", I would just like to know what is safe in your opinions to be able to do it.

I read an interesting article recently which was looking at how events went early last year. It covered how the Government was slow to react but also that people were already starting to take action themselves. Children were being kept from school, more people began to work from home and the football league cancelled matches. All this was in the days before the March lockdown was announced. The Government was also told their strategy of herd immunity wasn't going to work because as the death toll rose people would take action themselves and in essence go into voluntary lockdown. It was the Downing Street "Nudge unit" which contains people who study human behaviour who spotted this flaw in the plan. So the plan was changed and herd immunity was denied as ever being a policy.

There isn't really an answer to your question, no specific figure but if people feel unsafe they take action to prepare themselves whether that is bulk buying toilet rolls or keeping children off school.

The big unknown is are there variants coming this way the vaccine is ineffective against - and at the moment they don't know.

 

[chaser]

I have very mixed feelings on this now, for over a year I have barely left the farm apart from a few days in France last July and a week in Yarmouth in September, but now I am getting to the point of thinking what's the use.
The way things are going we are going to be shut down from going to Europe for the foreseeable future, I really thought we would be going soon but everyday seems to get dafter, what's wrong with the idiots over there? They were always supposed to have this fantastic health service, better than the NHS, but now they are just seeming to wait till everyone has had covid and just sitting looking on.
And here we have supposedly clever people having mass demonstrations to say it's all an hoax.
It looks to me now that we have now had the vaccination we might just as well start living a normal life and take our chances with just one more thing that could kill us.
Otherwise we are just going to sit at home for ever while others live a normal life.

 

[Sandancers]

I m still waiting for an answer as to what level of infection, if any, would people feel it is suitable to be able to go abroad for a jolly and return, double jabbed, without Q10 that HMG go for ? nothing else really matters.

Mine is/was and always has been 50/100,000 14 days ?

I keep reading "not safe", I would just like to know what is safe in your opinions to be able to do it.

I don't think the UK Gov. will care a jot about the level of infection numbers in the EU.

Others may see the same logic as you, but the Gov. can use the spending power of UK tourists as a bargaining chip with the EU.

The below is from today's Guardian, now the EU heads of state are having a chat about the blocking of OUR vaccines this Thursday. I can imagine that the Spanish and Greek top guys are a bit worried about getting tourist this year. Easy for Boris to whisper in their ears that any delay to OUR vaccine programs is certain to result in no Brits going abroad this summer.





Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.

On Sunday, the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said the EU’s reputation was at stake as the 27 heads of state and government prepare to make their decision, warning that “the world is watching”.

“If contracts get broken, and undertakings, that is a very damaging thing to happen for a trading bloc that prides itself on the rule of law,” he told Sky News. “It is counterproductive because the one thing we know about vaccine production and manufacture is that it is collaborative.

“They would undermine not only their own citizens’ chances of having a proper vaccine programme, but also many other countries around the world, with the reputational damage for the EU which they would find very hard to change over the short term.”

The European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said last week that the EU was considering “all options” and ready to introduce emergency controls on vaccine production and distribution to deal with the “crisis of the century”.

The 27 heads of state and government will discuss the next steps on Thursday via video conference, amid growing concerns over a third wave of coronavirus infections on the continent. Plans to meet in person were cancelled on Sunday in light of a rise in infections.

France and Germany have privately spoken in support of activating article 122 of the EU’s treaty, last used in the 1970s oil crisis, allowing the bloc to take emergency measures to control the distribution of essential goods.

The EU commissioner for financial services, Mairead McGuinness, said on Sunday: “European citizens are growing angry and upset at the fact that the vaccine rollout has not happened as rapidly as we had anticipated.”

The EU member states had administered 10.4 vaccine doses per 100 people as of Saturday, compared with the 42.7 jabs administered per 100 in the UK.

About 10m vaccine doses have been exported from plants in EU member states to the UK, largely by Pfizer/BioNTech. The UK is waiting on around 30m more Pfizer doses and 30m from Johnson & Johnson – although only some of those had been expected to be delivered by the end of the summer.

The UK government was until the last fortnight on course to beat its target of delivering a first vaccine dose to every adult in the UK by the end of July by over six weeks, according to Airfinity.

A recent supply problem with AstraZeneca’s facility in India is expected to set back the pace of vaccination by two weeks, from 10 June to 23 June.

But the imposition of an export ban on doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine produced in Belgium and Germany, by far the largest export to the UK, would delay every adult receiving a first jab until 5 August, according to Airfinity.

A ban on all exports of vaccines due for distribution, including those from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, would delay reaching that target to 27 August, the analysis commissioned by the Guardian further suggests.

Rasmus Bech Hansen, the chief executive of Airfinity, said: “Export bans are a lose-lose situation and threaten the global production scale-up.

“The imposition of a ban would mean the EU has marginally more doses short-term, but it won’t fundamentally change its vaccine availability, and the EU could soon be dependent on vaccine imports.

“A ban poses a significant risk for the UK and any potential UK retaliation on sub-ingredients would harm not only the EU and UK but the world, as it will significantly slow overall production.”

Airfinity’s estimate is based on how long it would take the UK to give at least one dose to 75% of its population, equivalent to an uptake of more than 95% of adults.

The EU has set itself the goal of fully vaccinating 70% of the population by the end of the summer.

According to Airfinity, the EU is on target for full vaccination of 75% of the population by 31 August despite its current difficulties, including the lack of supply from AstraZeneca.

Their analysis suggests that should the EU “keep and use the doses meant for the UK it would only bring them forward by just over a week [19 August], as their collective population is much greater”.

The commission and its member state governments have been enraged by the failure of AstraZeneca to deliver the promised 120m doses of its vaccine this quarter while it has continued to fulfil its contractual obligations with the UK government.

The company has pointed to the upfront funding provided for its collaboration with Oxford University by the UK government, and its company policy of creating bespoke supply chains for the EU and the UK.

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[Pelirocco]

Only got out motorhome last year managed to have 5 short breaks ,looking forward to having more in UK this year
Don't care what the sites are like, don't care if it does cost more here ,would prefer sun to rain .....just happy to get away
The world will still be there next year

 

[suavecarve]

I read an interesting article recently which was looking at how events went early last year. It covered how the Government was slow to react but also that people were already starting to take action themselves. Children were being kept from school, more people began to work from home and the football league cancelled matches. All this was in the days before the March lockdown was announced. The Government was also told their strategy of herd immunity wasn't going to work because as the death toll rose people would take action themselves and in essence go into voluntary lockdown. It was the Downing Street "Nudge unit" which contains people who study human behaviour who spotted this flaw in the plan. So the plan was changed and herd immunity was denied as ever being a policy.

There isn't really an answer to your question, no specific figure but if people feel unsafe they take action to prepare themselves whether that is bulk buying toilet rolls or keeping children off school.

The big unknown is are there variants coming this way the vaccine is ineffective against - and at the moment they don't know.

I think I read the same article ! but then again, I have read an awful lot of them ! I think the nudge unit was one of the factors but they dont really become a factor until they see the behaviour.

I think there is an answer to the question. HMG, in all likelihood, are going to have to give one, and there has to a tipping point for everyone as when risk outweighs reward, or it has to be self isolation forever as we have been told it will be here for years and will continue to mutate.

People feeling unsafe is dependant upon the media and social interaction. I get that. But to rely on them for facts to determine an informed opinion, is not the best judgement imo. In fact it could easily be described as poor judgement. dependant upon the news source favoured,

 

[suavecarve]

The below is from today's Guardian, now the EU heads of state are having a chat about the blocking of OUR vaccines this Thursday. I can imagine that the Spanish and Greek top guys are a bit worried about getting tourist this year. Easy for Boris to whisper in their ears that any delay to OUR vaccine programs is certain to result in no Brits going abroad this summer.

Amazing how these stories of no summer holidays turned up just UVDL threatens to block our vaccine !

 

[MITHRANDIR]

I read an interesting article recently which was looking at how events went early last year. It covered how the Government was slow to react but also that people were already starting to take action themselves. Children were being kept from school, more people began to work from home and the football league cancelled matches. All this was in the days before the March lockdown was announced. The Government was also told their strategy of herd immunity wasn't going to work because as the death toll rose people would take action themselves and in essence go into voluntary lockdown. It was the Downing Street "Nudge unit" which contains people who study human behaviour who spotted this flaw in the plan. So the plan was changed and herd immunity was denied as ever being a policy.

There isn't really an answer to your question, no specific figure but if people feel unsafe they take action to prepare themselves whether that is bulk buying toilet rolls or keeping children off school.

The big unknown is are there variants coming this way the vaccine is ineffective against - and at the moment they don't know.

Covid, can and will mutate at any time, that is quite natural and normal, some mutations have no consequence at all, some, are more serious, none of that has got anything to do with travel. It is a normal natural process.
While it is true to say that the more cases of the virus there are, then the more mutations there will be.
BUT, the virus can mutate and does at any time, even with low numbers of the virus.
If people are waiting for no mutations/variation, then i'm afraid you are in for a long wait indeed.
It is not right to direct vitriol at international travel , unless we as an island completely lock down from the outside world, and i mean completely, no flights, no, vehicles, no people, no goods, nothing, then after a long period of time, with a lockdown far stricter than anything we have seen, then we might and i stress might get rid of covid.
Practical and achievable? of course not.
Travel is just one way that the virus can be brought back to the uk, there are other ways any mutations can enter our island.
Everyone wants to get back to normal, but what some of them don't realise is that there is no normal unless the virus is eradicated entirely, which will never happen.
It is known that the virus mutates all the time, one mutation that renders the vaccine ineffective and we will be back to square one, there really is no normal, foreign travel will have little impact on this, it will mutate whether we travel or not.

 

[MITHRANDIR]

I think if we get to the point where life inside the uk can be normal including sports events music cinema etc and the cost is loss of foreign travel or foreign travel with strict limits and quarantine etc most would be very happy.

Nice thought but that will not happen, there is no normal without complete eradication of the disease.

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[DBK]

Covid, can and will mutate at any time, that is quite natural and normal, some mutations have no consequence at all, some, are more serious, none of that has got anything to do with travel. It is a normal natural process.
While it is true to say that the more cases of the virus there are, then the more mutations there will be.
BUT, the virus can mutate and does at any time, even with low numbers of the virus.
If people are waiting for no mutations/variation, then i'm afraid you are in for a long wait indeed.
It is not right to direct vitriol at international travel , unless we as an island completely lock down from the outside world, and i mean completely, no flights, no, vehicles, no people, no goods, nothing, then after a long period of time, with a lockdown far stricter than anything we have seen, then we might and i stress might get rid of covid.
Practical and achievable? of course not.
Travel is just one way that the virus can be brought back to the uk, there are other ways any mutations can enter our island.
Everyone wants to get back to normal, but what some of them don't realise is that there is no normal unless the virus is eradicated entirely, which will never happen.
It is known that the virus mutates all the time, one mutation that renders the vaccine ineffective and we will be back to square one, there really is no normal, foreign travel will have little impact on this, it will mutate whether we travel or not.

I won't bang on about this but the statement foreign travel has no impact is just plain wrong. It came to this country not from China but from folk returning from skiing trips in Europe. And how do South African variants arrive or the Kent strain escape? We can't lock down like New Zealand did but limiting numbers entering and leaving makes a lot of sense.

We will find out in a few weeks if the 17 May date is slipped - or not.

 

[MITHRANDIR]

I m still waiting for an answer as to what level of infection, if any, would people feel it is suitable to be able to go abroad for a jolly and return, double jabbed, without Q10 that HMG go for ? nothing else really matters.

Mine is/was and always has been 50/100,000 14 days ?

I keep reading "not safe", I would just like to know what is safe in your opinions to be able to do

I won't bang on about this but the statement foreign travel has no impact is just plain wrong. It came to this country not from China but from folk returning from skiing trips in Europe. And how do South African variants arrive or the Kent strain escape? We can't lock down like New Zealand did but limiting numbers entering and leaving makes a lot of sense.

We will find out in a few weeks if the 17 May date is slipped - or not.

I think you misunderstand, perhaps i did not put it well, travel has nothing to do with whether a virus will mutate or not, its perfectly normal and natural for them to do so.

 

[suavecarve]

And how do South African variants arrive or the Kent strain escape?

One has to ask that question if we havent been allowed out of the country.

If its going to happen, it will probably happen quicker if travel were allowed, but it will certainly happen with a new variant of concern without travel.

King Canute had a plan to keep waves out

Appreciating your input

 

[Northernraider]

All the comments regarding travel abroad, which i respect, that don't condone or agree with it, are in my humble view trying to have their cake and eat it, they advocate uk travel, but not travel abroad, it seems potentially spreading the infection from one area of the uk to another area of the uk is acceptable.
If we had a uk break i would act in exactly the same way as if i went abroad, treat everyone as though they had it, no meals out, no coffee out, certainly no crowds, sanitise everything that comes into the van, mask and gloves everytime we went out regardless of what we were doing. i fail to see how that puts either ourselves or others at risk at home or abroad.
Each has to weigh up the risks according to themselves.

Exactly ...instead they will descend on the Highlands of Scotland ...cornwall etc all the areas that have limited hospitals etc just like they did last year.

This is the penalty for every country scaring the bejeesus out of folk for the last year..... hypocrisy is rife

 

[MITHRANDIR]

I m still waiting for an answer as to what level of infection, if any, would people feel it is suitable to be able to go abroad for a jolly and return, double jabbed, without Q10 that HMG go for ? nothing else really matters.

Mine is/was and always has been 50/100,000 14 days ?

I keep reading "not safe", I would just like to know what is safe in your opinions to be able to do it.

I would opt for slightly more say 75-100/100.000 14 day.
Safe for me because i have changed my behaviour/habits permanently.

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