2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?

[Jaws]

Interestingly, where I live it is impossible to get a vehicle within about 50 yds of my house and for next door it is even worse !
Some time ago I did mail the local authority asking if there was any plans afoot to put charging points in parking areas on the estate..

No as it would be impractical due to logistics ( for 'logistics' I read lolly and infrastructure )

 

[Jim]

Interestingly, where I live it is impossible to get a vehicle within about 50 yds of my house and for next door it is even worse !
Some time ago I did mail the local authority asking if there was any plans afoot to put charging points in parking areas on the estate..

No as it would be impractical due to logistics ( for 'logistics' I read lolly and infrastructure )

If everyone is electric and you can't charge at home, I imagine they will have to build vast park and rides, so you park up, plug in, and get the bus home

 

[Puddleduck]

I don’t have a plan,other than trying to stay alive till then,and beyond I hope

Hopefully our 56 plate van will chug along till 2030 or longer.....who knows? When the van gives up,so will we. Then it’ll be B&B’s,5* hotels and cruises! What’s not to like??!!

That is our plan as well.

Not all ideas will work in all areas, but using the most suitable system or combination for each area makes them practical.

Or for all personal situations.

How many people drive 800 miles in a day. It is a very small minority and yes they are stuffed today if they were forced to move to an EV.. But in 10 years.... You know something called progress will happen

I have done it but why should anyone consider it safe or necessary? 250 miles + a 30 minute coffee stop will not bring the nation to a standstill. And why do you think a change in behaviour won't be necessary (or desirable) to accommodate EVs?

When I am at my parents it is not unusual to drive 1,000 miles over a few days. I would not be able to charge at their house and as every trip out is rushed as we have to get back to my Dad (GP and back, Pharmacy and back, pick up click and collect shopping and back) I'm not sure how I would charge an electric car.

I know it has been said that journeys less than so many miles should not be done by car but when the person completing the journey is disabled there isn't a lot of choice........ unless disabled people should stay at home behind closed doors of course.

In emergencies (and more than once) the "200 mile and more in one hit" has been a must do - and once with a police escort. Not something I want to do but it can be a matter of life or death when there are elderly relatives and the one who is the carer for the one with dementia becomes ill. There is no immediate / emergency SS cover (ask ShiftZZ how that doesn't work) so as the nearest relative (both by relationship and in distance) I get a knock on the door from the police, often in the small hours, grab my already packed bag and drive. Making a long detour and stopping for 20 minutes to recharge would be devastating.

I can see them working in large towns and cities but out in the real world it’s going to take some time, planning and serious thinking about.

Yes, we are in a rural area and I wonder how the agricultural vehicles will be powered.

 

[Coolcats]

Hmmmm....
At the moment there are approx 40 million cars, 3.9 million vans 2.4 million bikes and 1.1 million lorries
There are only 8,400 gas stations with an average of 5 pumps making 42400 places to fill up
There are already almost as many publicly available charge points around, however the figures are misleading in that it takes MUCH longer to charge a vehicle than to fill it up, and more importantly the average ice car needs feeding every 250 miles, while ( at the moment ) an EV requires feeding every 125 miles, thereby requiring twice as many opportunities to fill up than an IC vehicle

AND............
more than 85% of those EV points are within cities.

I can only take Thetford as an example.
A ( VERY ) quick head count of actual pumps comes to 60ish
Charging points listed IN thetford number are 9, 2 of those although listed as public are not really ( they are located inside a car sales place ) and three have been out of commission more often than working
This only leaves 2 points each with 2 charge leads which are

2 x 50kW 125A JEVS (CHAdeMO)
2 x 50kW 125A CCS (Combo)

located on the A134 Bury Rd at the Harvester garage


For folk like me I could proly charge mine up from a couple of solar panels as I use the car so rarely ( I think I have put petrol in only 3 times since last Christmas ) but for others I believe the charging network has a long was to go.. Which no doubt it will if firms see a profit

That leads to a whole new can of worms though

WILL firms consider it worth while fiscally to install charge points as at the moment, under british law and legislation it is illegal to charge more for electricity than the supplying company, so all that can be legally charged is a fee for using the charge point
I do not know the figures but suspect there is a lot less profit in it than supplying petrol !

There are quite a few at the Eleven inn probably around 8 Tesla I believe and I think there a couple for normal EV's

 

[Jaws]

If everyone is electric and you can't charge at home, I imagine they will have to build vast park and rides, so you park up, plug in, and get the bus home

Errrrr.. that requires buses !!

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[Jaws]

There are quite a few at the Eleven inn probably around 8 Tesla I believe and I think there a couple for normal EV's

Which is three miles from me, and I live at the 'right end' of Thetford for it.. In other words I am closer to it than most Thetford residents
They have also stuck a sign up 'for residents use' but I suspect that is an over zealous manager and will soon come back down !

 

[Jim]

Errrrr.. that requires buses !!

They'll be electric

 

[gus-lopez]

Everywhere? is like this now? In most towns?

I don't know where you travel but on my meanderings around the Uk when over, yes, everywhere i have been has been like it.

ok. Let's cancel the whole thing because @gus-lopez thinks we can't figure it out.

it can be figured out but the population will not want to wait, change, do anything different exactly the same as they refuse to comply with the restrictions now. If it inconveniences them they won't swallow it.

I have done it but why should anyone consider it safe or necessary? 250 miles + a 30 minute coffee stop will not bring the nation to a standstill.

Why would I wish to take 4 or 5 days to do a journey that I now can do in 2? It isn't progress.

If everyone is electric and you can't charge at home, I imagine they will have to build vast park and rides, so you park up, plug in, and get the bus home

The last 30 years I lived in the Uk not only were there no bus services within miles you also needed to have 2 vehicles just in case one broke down.
& how can this be called progress? Who wants to get on buses with covid coughers? Who wants to get on buses with 40 bags of shopping? Or are we dropping that at home then driving miles to dump the elctric hand cart so we can get a skanky bus home. You are all living in dream land.

They'll be electric

If they ever exist.

 

[CazPaul]

New Mercedes Electric Sprinter can only manage, an average 96 miles. Base Price £52,000. Have you seen how long its taken MB to get this far? So in 10 years, will it manage 350?. I doubt it. Between two drivers, 800 miles is possible in two days, in a diesel van.

Too much emphasis on Electric cars rather than vans.

I also think more freight should be switched to rail But we demolished a lot in favour of motorways.

Dont think the UK infrastructure will cope.

Definitely correct about all the emphasis is on electric cars at the minute and NOT vans.

 

[Jim]

The last 30 years I lived in the Uk not only were there no bus services within miles you also needed to have 2 vehicles just in case one broke down.

For thousands of years before you lived in the UK they didn't have electric or water to every home, nor petrol stations in every village, thousands will have said that was unlikely too

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[Brains]

Not having a dig or anything, but this is typical view of a town/city dweller, where they have street lamps and even bus stops 5m away.

True.
But how many people park on the street in unlit areas ?

Typically you would expect houses in unlit areas to have an area for off road parking.

We are told (which may not be true) that 84% of properties have off road parking
One would presume the other 16% are mostly in towns.
Most (all ??) dense residential streets in towns have street lamps.
The problem will be for those who park on unlit streets because they do not have off road parking.

 

[Brains]

You have street lamps?

We have one about quarter of a mile away but at that point the road is single track.

No chargers are being put into properties here as the sub-station is at maximum capacity already.

My brother charges up his car just using a normal plug and socket - it takes longer, but it works

 

[BILL 875]

If all cars and domestic heating is changed to electricity the carbon output saved would be gobbled up by China in a week, while half of this country will be living in poverty, ie new cars plus 40% and heating bills plus 400%

 

[Wildbill]

My son plugged his Tesla in when he got home 7.5 hrs later it was at 80% it's not the supper fast charger thing but he been out and abut over the weekend with the grandchildren
the lowest it got was 30%.
He recons it's the bees knees
Bill

 

[LesW]

But how many people park on the street in unlit areas ?

Where I live..?
Probably in excess of 100, as I said, typical view of someone who lives in a town or city.

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[Puddleduck]

My brother charges up his car just using a normal plug and socket - it takes longer, but it works

Not really practical on a single track road (little wider than a farm track but still very busy as it is a short cut) where most people park their cars in the church car park (across the road from the church so they couldn't plug in there either). I'm thinking of other people in the settlement who would not be able to charge at home.

Charging at home would not be a big issue for us as we live in "the posh house" as long as I could be sure I had a range of 200 miles at all times - just in case of an emergency trip to my parents. The diesel car has a range of 560 miles and is rarely allowed to get below half full.

Also there is zero public transport here - 3 miles to a bus route and over 20 miles to a railway station.

 

[Puddleduck]

Errrrr.. that requires buses !!

They'll be electric

But not have the range to get from the depot to where they need to be and back again.

 

[SpeedyDux]

This phasing out of ICE vehicles isn't just about Net Zero carbon emissions. It is one step towards The Great Reset (or UN Agenda 30). The assumption that we are making that everyone who owns an ICE vehicle will somehow replace it with an EV is not credible in the long run. Take for example the suggestions that fuel duty and VED will be replaced by a usage tax to fill the £40 Bn black hole predicted by HM Treasury. If, as has been suggested, the road usage tax will be set at 75p per mile (or even £1.50 per mile) for cars, that will force everyone on a low income onto public transport, as private motoring becomes unaffordable for them.

The elites have realised that endless growth is unsustainable. We plebs will have to get by on less while they remain unaffected. Hence one Great Reset goal is the end of personal property. We won't own anything and we will be happy. Everyone will rent stuff from the mega corporations. Clothes, books, TVs, phones, their homes, everything rented. This is the future they are planning for us. Other countries are set to follow this path whether their citizens like it or not. It's no secret. Expect more announcements after the WEF meeting in Davos next May.

 

[68c]

All of this 'no new internal combustion engines after 2030' business is about appearing to comply with carbon reduction without risking votes. That is why it is ten years away. As we approach that date voters will be become more aware of the problems and start to vote for a system that will support their way of life. Of course, what no one knows is what will be the popular feeling then. If you are really concerned may I suggest you take a strong political stance to support your desires and vote in politicians who may be able to satisfy you.

 

[Gromett]

It was also in the FT and trade papers. Yes of course they brought in extra capacity, but this is primarily because we have gas generation that is capable of generating 70% of our electricity. I can't see a scenario where we won't need that capacity for when we have persistent winter high pressure systems sat over the UK in winter with little wind and no sun, not an infrequent occurrence. You can have all the wind capacity you like but if the wind doesn't blow .......
It does beg the question of how green electricity can ever be.

Bad news sells papers, even the FT. Very few if any of them reported that it was a lower than required by regulations buffer. There was never a shortage of capacity. Secondly very few published an update a few hours later when the system worked as designed and the buffer was restored to it required minimum level.

This is the first time it has happened since 2015, prior to that it happened quite frequently every winter. The reverse of what most people suspect is true, the grid has actually got more stable over time. Remember years ago we used to be worried about gas shortages during winter which was causing problems for the national grid planning.
Here is just one example from 2010. there are many more examples.

The Big Freeze 2010: An audit

The chilling season goes on. Susie Mesure, Andrew Johnson and Emily Dugan report

www.independent.co.uk

Here is the thing though. If we go ahead as the government plans and installs an additional 30GW of wind generation we will have a massive excess of generation. Storage can be built to take this excess and supply it back when there is a lull in the wind. The storage could be fast acting batteries, Medium speed but bulk storage using compressed air which is scaleable and hydrogen to supply the current gas turbine generators which are slower to come online but can do large amounts.

I have experience of this type of system from my electrical apprenticeship and my work in data centres. The batteries would provide the fast response for short term supply while the air compressor systems come up to speed. The compressed air systems could last for hours if not days. The gas system could be there for extreme events where we are under supplied for weeks.

This is not going to happen overnight and this does not need to be complete by 2030 as the deadline is actually 2050 for us to be carbon neutral. We have plenty of time.

Finally, the wind tends not to stop blowing UK wide. We are currently more reliant on the unpredictable onshore wind farms. Offshore has a far high uptime and it is extremely rare for the wind to stop blowing in all the seas surrounding the UK.

Remember the big advantage of wind is that once you have paid for the infrastructure you don't then need to continue to pay for fuel and worry about geopolitically caused supply issues.

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[Gromett]

As EV technology progresses I shall be interested what happens to graphs plotting payload/battey weight against range.

I expect there will be progress here, but I will not be surprised if the law of diminishing returns does not kick in at some point to create a limiting factor, beyond which there can be no further progress. I surmise that this might particularly happen to those MHs based on van chassis (what is the plural of chassis?) and more particularly ones with max weight of 3500kg, or 4250kg if recognised internationally, but even that extra is proposed only for the battery weight not the vehicle weight ex batteries.(does it include hab batteries - don't go there!). Truck chassis might fare better for those with C1 or C licences.

Geoff

The theoretical maximum energy density of Lithium Ion batteries is 460Wh/KG. At the cell level we are above the 100Wh per KG but not at the 200Wh per KG level. So we have a potential to double it at the cell level.
HOWEVER, at the pack level there is far more that can be done.

We are not yet at the diminishing returns point in battery development.

 

[Gromett]

When I got my new car in June I had looked at a hybrid version. I decided not to go for it as Mercedes Benz only offered a 2 year warranty on the batteries. I am interested to see what the value of a hybrid Merc is in two years time.

That says more about Mercedes than the technology. Tesla offer an 8 year warranty on their battery as do Hyundai, probably many others as well.

I just did a quick check and hyundai only offer a 5 year warranty on their hybrid batteries. So it may be to do with hybrids?

 

[Gromett]

New Mercedes Electric Sprinter can only manage, an average 96 miles. Base Price £52,000. Have you seen how long its taken MB to get this far? So in 10 years, will it manage 350?. I doubt it. Between two drivers, 800 miles is possible in two days, in a diesel van.

Too much emphasis on Electric cars rather than vans.

I also think more freight should be switched to rail But we demolished a lot in favour of motorways.

Dont think the UK infrastructure will cope.

I have covered this before. The vast majority of vans are used for local area deliveries and local tradesmen. The manufactures are currently supply side limited on batteries. They can only get so much at the moment.
So if you have for example 1,000Kwh of battery supply do you build 20 x 50Kwh vans with 100 mile range or 10 x 100Kwh vans with 200 mile range. The profit margin is the same on both and there are enough customers to soak up all the supply you can provide...

This is the reason for so many low range vans coming out. They do the job that a chunk of the market needs.

Once the new battery factories come online and supply constraints are removed expect to see longer range vans.

Oh, the other issue is that the traditional manufactures are being cheap by using the same body and parts for their EV vans rather than designing an EV from the ground up. This means they are also a little weight constrained.
They are effectively doing what early car manufacturers did when creating their first horseless carriages. They took a horse carriage and attached an engine. Not bad for a first attempt but not cost effective or efficient.

 

[Gromett]

The national grid will cope with car charging because there is a new law going through parliament that domestic electric supply will be cut to provide for car charging, hospitals etc all done at the drop of the hat if you have a smart meter installed with no compo for any supply disruption as there is now, I will let someone else check this out.

You are misrepresenting the law. You should check out what it actually allows for, and note that it requires the permission of the householder.

 

[Gromett]

Good point. It would be ironic if the National Grid's Short Term Operating Reserve generating capacity including diesel generation has to kick in due to a drop in renewable capacity such as the scenario you described, coupled with high demand (including charging EVs). One CO2 saving offset by more CO2 emission elsewhere. Murphy's Law won't be repealed, ever.

I know Gromett says this situation will be covered by huge battery banks. I think we will get power cuts over significant areas of the UK whenever there are "unforeseen" issues causing a cascade of generation capaciity tripping out. August 2019 being a recent example and that was in high summer not freezing winter. Moving to electric-only vehicles and electric-only domestic heating is a recipe for more frequent power cuts resulting from allegedly unforeseen events. As well as much higher electricity tariffs for everyone. You can bet electricity won't be getting cheaper and it is already about 4x the equivalent tariff for gas energy.

I expect more people who can afford it will install an ICE back-up generator in their garden shed. Probably diesel. At least that way you can be certain that you can charge your EV MH's batteries before setting off again.

We do currently use Diesel peaker plants quite regularly although slowly reducing. Battery storage is the ideal candidate to replace diesel generators as is happening in australia right now. There has been massive complaints about brownouts and power cuts caused by "excess" renewables. A few years ago Tesla installed the largest battery bank in the world and pretty much overnight solved all their problems. They are now rolling out batteries at a fair clip and accelerating.

Worth noting Boris is on about 30GW of additional generation capacity from wind. At that point we will have so much electric we will have an over supply by a huge amount.

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[7735]

Does anybody really think 2030 is attainable for all new vehicles to be electric. We need a different power source for a start. Lithium and cobalt are rare earth minerals there is no infinite supply, in the uk alone we would need something in excess of 40 million batteries. How many in the rest of the world. I’m not worried anyway I will either be too old or too dead by 2030.

spongy

 

[Gromett]

Info about the Tesla battery in Australia. What has it achieved? What impact etc.

 

[tribalbrit]

My son plugged his Tesla in when he got home 7.5 hrs later it was at 80% it's not the supper fast charger thing but he been out and abut over the weekend with the grandchildren
the lowest it got was 30%.
He recons it's the bees knees
Bill

For £120,000 it ought to be.

 

[Gromett]

Does anybody really think 2030 is attainable for all new vehicles to be electric. We need a different power source for a start. Lithium and cobalt are rare earth minerals there is no infinite supply, in the uk alone we would need something in excess of 40 million batteries. How many in the rest of the world. I’m not worried anyway I will either be too old or too dead by 2030.

spongy

Remember this is for new cars only. We are not replacing ALL cars overnight in 2030. The second hand market for ICE cars will continue for quite a long time after by as much as 16 years.

Secondly Lithium is not a rare earth element. And rare earth elements are not that rare.

Cobalt is being removed from batteries and in some cases already are gone. The chinese Tesla Model 3 standard range uses LiFePO4 the Fe for those who are not into chemistry is Iron one of the most common elements on the planet.
The problem with Cobalt though is not the supply, it is the ethical issues.

Battery production is more likely to be constrained by copper, aluminium and nickel with nickel being the most likely candidate for shortages in the future.

 

[Gromett]

For £120,000 it ought to be.

You do know you can buy a Tesla for less than £40,000?

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