2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?

[SpeedyDux]

Well, that is an interesting Change Proposal. Legalising power cuts in advance. It is food for thought when we have to adapt to an electric-only future.

The electricity suppliers, distributors and generators (DCUSA) in your link will probably have agreed this Change Proposal among themselves. The Competition Commission really ought to investigate prima facie cartel behaviour. Now we hear the industry is asking the compliant watchdog Ofgem to rubber stamp it, and must have lobbied the Government to pass enabling legislation. It looks like a fait accompli. We didn't get the vote on it.

About This "customer consent" stuff. In legal terms a customer can consent in advance to what would otherwise be a breach or unilateral suspension of the other party's performance obligations, if that is a term of the contract. Force Majeure clauses are a good example of this. A one-sided power cut term can be slipped into the prolix T&Cs that we know domestic customers never read and NEVER NEGOTIATE. The idea that your supplier will email or text you in advance and ask politely if you wouldn't mind us cutting off your electricity between 5pm and 7pm today is a bit fanciful. They will just do it via the HCALCS Smart Meter; and, if you object / complain, presumably they will say we are complying with the Code of Practice, we had to do it for the security of the network, or use the "market forces" excuse, which you already consented to on a long term basis under clause 56B para 12 of your new contract, and you can go whistle for compo.

Unfortunately, it does remind me of Enron. Except Enron were utter crooks, without a legal framework such as the one that will legalise power cuts in the UK. Enron would still be bust but nobody would have been jailed for fraud.

 

[SpeedyDux]

Maybe you misunderstood my point about nobody addressing the distribution infrastructure issue. I was alerted to this by Bernie P in his knowledgeable post #223 on this thread

Broken Link Removed

 

[Coolcats]

This is the exact issue why we did not buy an eGolf earlier this year

‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’

A Kent couple love their new car – but their experience suggests there are problems with the charging network

www.theguardian.com

A local Tesla Garage has just installed a small substation along with half a dozen superchargers

So if we have fully electric MoHo's what infrastructure would be needed including a substation on campsite with 100+ MoHo's.

Hydrogen has to be the way to go !

 

[Gromett]

Well, that is an interesting Change Proposal. Legalising power cuts in advance. It is food for thought when we have to adapt to an electric-only future.

The electricity suppliers, distributors and generators (DCUSA) in your link will probably have agreed this Change Proposal among themselves. The Competition Commission really ought to investigate prima facie cartel behaviour. Now we hear the industry is asking the compliant watchdog Ofgem to rubber stamp it, and must have lobbied the Government to pass enabling legislation. It looks like a fait accompli. We didn't get the vote on it.

You are reading way too much into this. They are not organising for profit or anti consumer reasons, they are required by ofgem to plan for grid stability.

It is not legalising power cuts in advance, it is planning for ways to prevent power cuts.

Ofgem can't rubber stamp this, I believe it has to go to parliament and an new act presented. It will be voted on.

About This "customer consent" stuff. In legal terms a customer can consent in advance to what would otherwise be a breach or unilateral suspension of the other party's performance obligations, if that is a term of the contract. Force Majeure clauses are a good example of this. A one-sided power cut term can be slipped into the prolix T&Cs that we know domestic customers never read and NEVER NEGOTIATE. The idea that your supplier will email or text you in advance and ask politely if you wouldn't mind us cutting off your electricity between 5pm and 7pm today is a bit fanciful. They will just do it via the HCALCS Smart Meter; and, if you object / complain, presumably they will say we are complying with the Code of Practice, we had to do it for the security of the network, or use the "market forces" excuse, which you already consented to on a long term basis under clause 56B para 12 of your new contract, and you can go whistle for compo.

Unfortunately, it does remind me of Enron. Except Enron were utter crooks, without a legal framework such as the one that will legalise power cuts in the UK. Enron would still be bust but nobody would have been jailed for fraud.

If as you say it will be added to the terms and conditions, the first time it is used under none emergency conditions there will be public outcry and changes will be forced. However, I genuinely don't think it is what you think it is. It is an Emergency process, it won't be used for financial reasons. It won't be used lightly and it does require a 3rd generation smart meter. They haven't even finished rolling out 1st generation smart meters and 2nd generation meters are off to a rough start.

 

[Gromett]

Maybe you misunderstood my point about nobody addressing the distribution infrastructure issue. I was alerted to this by Bernie P in his knowledgeable post #223 on this thread

Broken Link Removed

With all due to respect to Bernie, I am not convinced that it isn't possible.

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[Gromett]

A local Tesla Garage has just installed a small substation along with half a dozen superchargers

So if we have fully electric MoHo's what infrastructure would be needed including a substation on campsite with 100+ MoHo's.

Hydrogen has to be the way to go !

No, campsites will no more need to provide fast vehicle charging infrastructure than they need to provide petrol stations now.
Hydrogen? So you expect campsite to provide hydrogen filling station on site?

The Tesla supercharges offer 250Kw charge rates. That is why they need a substation. Although I suspect the substation is not a substation in the conventional sense but a battery storage system for load management.
If a campsite did want to offer chargers, they would probably offer 7Kw chargers as the campers could charge overnight.

 

[gus-lopez]

With the low mileage that people do in there vans lets go back to large petrol engines minus the emissions tat.

 

[SpeedyDux]

You are reading way too much into this. They are not organising for profit or anti consumer reasons, they are required by ofgem to plan for grid stability.

It is not legalising power cuts in advance, it is planning for ways to prevent power cuts.

Ofgem can't rubber stamp this, I believe it has to go to parliament and an new act presented. It will be voted on.



If as you say it will be added to the terms and conditions, the first time it is used under none emergency conditions there will be public outcry and changes will be forced. However, I genuinely don't think it is what you think it is. It is an Emergency process, it won't be used for financial reasons. It won't be used lightly and it does require a 3rd generation smart meter. They haven't even finished rolling out 1st generation smart meters and 2nd generation meters are off to a rough start.

Where we really differ is - correct me if I am wrong - you believe that market forces invariably provide solutions. Whereas I strongly believe we are in the era of rentier capitalism, in which transnational mega corporations are working in monopolistic fashion to maximise their ROI; as well as being too big to fail so they can operate without accountability, least of all to our career politicians who have every expectation of lucrative sinecures and astonishing speaking fees after they leave office, as a reward for serving their interests. Party donations disproportionately buy influence. The level of fines that the Regulators hit them with for bad behaviour are insignificant - just part of the cost of doing business. A bit of theatre as a sop to public opinion.

Maybe we also disagree on the necessity for the UK which represents 1% of global CO2 emissions to go net zero by 2050 at enormous cost to us all, which will be a drop in the bucket compared against the growing CO2 emissions from India and China.

That is OT and we have to deal with the banning of diesel vans thanks to Boris and his Princess Nut Nut fiancee. On that subject, I considered the current e-Ducato (costs about £30k more than its diesel equivalent) and even the one with the 70 KWh battery would not be viable for motorhome use. FIAT must try a lot harder. Which is why I am interested in what the replacement for the X290 Ducato will be like.

Anyway, cheers!

 

[Bernie P]

With all due to respect to Bernie, I am not convinced that it isn't possible.

I think you under-estimate the volume of work involved

 

[Reallyretired]

My brother has recently got an electric car, though he has a diesel one too for when he hss to go a reasonable distance. He can charge overnight with s normal 13a socket at home though prefers to use a free charge point at the shopping centre.

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[TheAleMan]

LBC radio during last week said..’an electric car don’t start getting green until it’s done over 50,000 miles. Just saying.

 

[Cheshirecat57]

LBC radio during last week said..’an electric car don’t start getting green until it’s done over 50,000 miles. Just saying.

So it STARTS to start getting green when new ( glass half full )

 

[gus-lopez]

LBC radio during last week said..’an electric car don’t start getting green until it’s done over 50,000 miles. Just saying.

Yes I read an article on it yesterday

So it STARTS to start getting green when new ( glass half full )

True & by 50k miles it has just equalled the carbon footprint of a petrol car ,when new.

 

[duane0001]

My plan is to buy 15 Diesel vans and store them for future use

 

[Gromett]

Where we really differ is - correct me if I am wrong - you believe that market forces invariably provide solutions. Whereas I strongly believe we are in the era of rentier capitalism, in which transnational mega corporations are working in monopolistic fashion to maximise their ROI; as well as being too big to fail so they can operate without accountability, least of all to our career politicians who have every expectation of lucrative sinecures and astonishing speaking fees after they leave office, as a reward for serving their interests. Party donations disproportionately buy influence. The level of fines that the Regulators hit them with for bad behaviour are insignificant - just part of the cost of doing business. A bit of theatre as a sop to public opinion.

I do believe in market forces. You only have to see what Tesla has done to the traditional automotive industry to see what it is capable of. Even in countries with weak climate/pollution laws Tesla is selling so it is not as some have claimed a tree huggers car.

As for the electric industry, There is a lot of work that can be done to improve the regulation of the energy companies and by that I mean the ones who sell electric to us. Competition is being undermined by poor regulation. However in the case of DNO's, The National Grid and the Generators I think it is pretty much ok. On the generation front I think it is pretty healthy with the new API to the Grid being launched we should see a lot more competition. However, without the electric companies who sell to use being forced to be more competitive and transparent I am not 100% sure we will see lower prices from the generators passed onto us.

Maybe we also disagree on the necessity for the UK which represents 1% of global CO2 emissions to go net zero by 2050 at enormous cost to us all, which will be a drop in the bucket compared against the growing CO2 emissions from India and China.

I think we need to do it because it is the right thing to do. It will also be financially and geopolitically rewarding. Financially because wind power is cheaper, geopolitically because importing oil and gas means we can be held over a barrel. I don't know about you but I am fed up of sending money to the middle east for it to end up in terrorists hands.

That is OT and we have to deal with the banning of diesel vans thanks to Boris and his Princess Nut Nut fiancee. On that subject, I considered the current e-Ducato (costs about £30k more than its diesel equivalent) and even the one with the 70 KWh battery would not be viable for motorhome use. FIAT must try a lot harder. Which is why I am interested in what the replacement for the X290 Ducato will be like.

Early days on the vans. As I have said before. We are battery constrained. This is artificially holding the price up. Also the traditional manufacturers are not designed EV vans from the ground up so they are not as efficient as they could be. As I have said before. If you only have 1,000 KWh of batteries and have to choose between building 20 x 50Kwh vans or 10 x 100Kwh vans you will build the 20 x 50KWh vans as that is more profitable.

Anyway, cheers!

I love these debates. I learn so much and it helps me clarify my thinking.

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[Gromett]

I think you under-estimate the volume of work involved

I don't under estimate it I don't think. I think the issue is a lot of people seem to think this all needs doing in a short time frame. It is 10 years to handle a gradual changeover to EV's. Remember cars last on average 14 years in the UK. The 1st 10 years from now we will still see ICE cars being produced. So the phasing out of ICE cars is likely to be heading towards the 24 year mark from today. Even then there will still be ICE cars hanging around and they are likely to start being maintained better towards the latter years as people who can't or won't convert will hold on by tooth and nail.

The heating "revolution" won't kick off quite as fast as the EV side of things. People will hold onto their gas boiler as long as they can because it is familiar to them. However, as heat pump systems become more popular the price will drop and parity should be reachable within a decade. With the 1Kw of electric required for 4KW of heating they shouldn't impact the grid too quickly and I don't suppose that by 2050 we will be rid of all gas boilers even then. I also suspect that hydrogen will may be become an option as a replacement for heating depending on how much excess wind we can generate.

I do forsee lower wattage higher efficiency night storage heaters becoming popular again in places where getting an upgrade to the powerline is not practical for economic reasons. However, I suspect there will be schemes to fund heat pump systems for them.

I am not blind to the challenges, however I think they are achievable and within the 30 year target. Although I do admit it won't all be done by then and we won't reach 100% zero carbon emissions. We will be most of the way there.

 

[Gromett]

LBC radio during last week said..’an electric car don’t start getting green until it’s done over 50,000 miles. Just saying.

That is from one report that only used one example car from Volvo and compared it to one ICE car.

EVEN if it is true across the piste. That means that after 50K miles they are cleaner than ICE cars. The average age of a car when it is scrapped in the UK is 13.9 years. The average mileage in the UK is 8,500 miles (ish).
So 50,000 / 8,500 = 5.8 years. So between 5.8 and 13.9 years or 8.1 years on average the EV is effectively carbon negative. Just saying

PS: I don't believe the report is that balanced to be honest.

 

[Gromett]

One other thing that report fails to mention is that EV's get greener over time as the grid get's more green.
Whereas an ICE car is at it's most efficient near the start of it's life and gets worse and more polluting as time goes on.

 

[glenn2926]

I’m sure we will end up with no choice for power for anything except electric. Which is worrying to me.
Now I have an electric fire a gas boiler and an open fire which I burn wood or coal on. I have a gas hob and an electric oven and microwave. I have a petrol car, petrol motorbike , diesel pickup, diesel motorhome in which my fridge can run off battery, gas, or electric, I have an lpg hob and heating that can run using gas or electric.
When there is a shortage of any of the aforementioned fuels I have alternative fuelled appliances available.
When there is no choice and then a shortage of the only fuel what choice is there? None. Putting all your eggs in one basket has always been thought foolish. Some on here obviously think this is a good idea. I’m not convinced.

 

[Coolcats]

No, campsites will no more need to provide fast vehicle charging infrastructure than they need to provide petrol stations now.
Hydrogen? So you expect campsite to provide hydrogen filling station on site?

The Tesla supercharges offer 250Kw charge rates. That is why they need a substation. Although I suspect the substation is not a substation in the conventional sense but a battery storage system for load management.
If a campsite did want to offer chargers, they would probably offer 7Kw chargers as the campers could charge overnight.

Clearly a campsite would not have to provide Hydrogen in the same way they do not need to provide petrol. So just where are the MoHo’s going to charge ? Or are they going to queue at the local charging points ?

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[TheAleMan]

One other thing that report fails to mention is that EV's get greener over time as the grid get's more green.
Whereas an ICE car is at it's most efficient near the start of it's life and gets worse and more polluting as time goes on.

So this leads me onto the batteries. They are big right, lots of nasty stuff in them I take it. How long do they last?...Does anybody know the answer? How long before they start dropping off from optimum performance? And what is the disposal procedure for said batteries, bearing in mind the said nasties. I know Jack about Ev,s but would like to know some answers before deciding how green they really and truly are. Lithium mining anyone. I’m here to learn.

 

[Gromett]

So this leads me onto the batteries. They are big right, lots of nasty stuff in them I take it. How long do they last?...Does anybody know the answer? How long before they start dropping off from optimum performance? And what is the disposal procedure for said batteries, bearing in mind the said nasties. I know Jack about Ev,s but would like to know some answers before deciding how green they really and truly are. Lithium mining anyone. I’m here to learn.

No, not a lot of nasty stuff in them.
Very valuable so get re-used then recycled.
Estimated lifespan is 12-15 years so covers the average life of a car in the UK. Manufacturers (good ones) give an 8 year warranty.
At the end of their lifespan in a car, they are repurposed for storage systems where they can do another 10-15 years.
At the end of their lifespan in a storage system they will be recycled.

The bulk of a battery is copper and aluminium, small amounts of other valuable elements.

Lithium mining is amongst the cleanest element to mine. There will be those who say it is dirty, but relative to all the other mines this is the cleanest. Basically evaporating salt ponds. Done correctly it has little if any environmental impact.

 

[Gromett]

Clearly a campsite would not have to provide Hydrogen in the same way they do not need to provide petrol. So just where are the MoHo’s going to charge ? Or are they going to queue at the local charging points ?

What is wrong with charging before you get there or as you are leaving same as you do for a Petrol or Diesel vehicle? This is the thing I am confused about? Do you expect campsite to become vehicle refuelling stations? If not why is an EV any different?

 

[Coolcats]

No, not a lot of nasty stuff in them.
Very valuable so get re-used then recycled.
Estimated lifespan is 12-15 years so covers the average life of a car in the UK. Manufacturers (good ones) give an 8 year warranty.
At the end of their lifespan in a car, they are repurposed for storage systems where they can do another 10-15 years.
At the end of their lifespan in a storage system they will be recycled.

The bulk of a battery is copper and aluminium, small amounts of other valuable elements.

Lithium mining is amongst the cleanest element to mine. There will be those who say it is dirty, but relative to all the other mines this is the cleanest. Basically evaporating salt ponds. Don't correctly it has little if any environmental impact.

This is an interesting Wired article lithium mining is an issue.
It’s the impact Humans have on the Enviroment.https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact

 

[Coolcats]

What is wrong with charging before you get there or as you are leaving same as you do for a Petrol or Diesel vehicle? This is the thing I am confused about? Do you expect campsite to become vehicle refuelling stations? If not why is an EV any different?

Nothing wrong with refuelling when you get to a destination but as cars trucks vans and MoHo’s become fully electric the demand fir charging points will be exponential and there will be a demand that campsites have charging facilities. Imagine you have just driven 200 miles your tired and arrive at your destination. Now you have to seek out a charging point, it may be you have an overnight stay and need to move on tomorrow and drive another 100 miles.

As the article points out not all charging points work all the time, our local BP station it’s not unusual to see a couple of EV’s queuing for the charging point. So when heating cooking and driving a MoHo is 100% electric the infrastructure has to be in place to support it and as I say when you have 100 electric hungry MoHo’s on a campsite the demand from the MoHo user will be there.

that is of course unless Hydrogen vehicles or another energy source is available.

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[Lofty1]

When I get my flux capacitor to work I will be going back to the sixtys and staying there for the cheap fuel and beer, first problem is getting the van up to 88mph on the M6.

 

[Lenny HB]

Tesla has competition now and there are a range of ‘cheap’ alternatives available

Cheapest Electric Cars On Sale In The UK In 2020 | GreenCarGuide

The cheapest Battery Electric Cars on sale in the UK in 2020, eligibility for the plug-in car grant, electric driving range and links to independent reviews

www.greencarguide.co.uk

They are not cheap they are thousands dearer that their equivalent IEC car and that is after a £3000 grant towards them.

 

[Coolcats]

They are not cheap they are thousands dearer that their equivalent IEC car and that is after a £3000 grant towards them.

Don’t disagree with you on that but EV’a start at £12k

 

[TheAleMan]

This is an interesting Wired article lithium mining is an issue.
It’s the impact Humans have on the Enviroment.https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact

I’ve just been reading that very article..doesn’t sound all that rosey to me, seems like the whole process is fraught with polluting the planet further, and as demand rises, so will all the problems. After reading that, I’m not buying into ev green thing.

 

[Coolcats]

I’ve just been reading that very article..doesn’t sound all that rosey to me, seems like the whole process is fraught with polluting the planet further, and as demand rises, so will all the problems. After reading that, I’m not buying into ev green thing.

I think it’s still problematic even if we use Hydrogen for EV’ there is still the issue of rare earth minerals for the electric motors. In someways we are swapping one form of pollution for another. Not sure what the answer is

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