Motorhome Values post Lockdown

sallylillian said:
The first paragraph says:-
The French President Emanuel Macron has warned that the external borders of the Schengen Area and the Schengen Associated States may remain shut until September, as a measure against another wave of Coronavirus infections in the territory that may be caused by an outer factor, travellers coming from the US and other countries.

I think the UK is an associated state until December 20? So we are inside the bubble. Perhaps?
Click to expand...
And it does say "may remain shut"

Martin
 
There is a lot of pessimism around at the moment, of course! However, there is also a lot of pent-up demand for everything and a real longing for things to return to normal which I liken to the “coiled spring” effect. (Did anyone see on TV last night, the queues outside fast food drive-in’s in NZ ?) Initially, of course, things will happen slowly... rather like a flower bud opening in Spring but, once movement starts all that pent up energy will burst out and human instincts will kick in. Yes, many workers have been laid off but, business is business and as demand increases the hiring signs will appear everywhere. For many years now, in the U.K. particularly, there has been a shortage of labour and that is not going to change soon. Of course, there will be a hit to the economy but I think that has already been factored into the future as further borrowing. I think world economies are going to regard that as the new normal...I have always been a naturally optimistic person! ?


For me personally, I saw this as an opportunity (“the time to be bold is when blood is running down the streets”) and have been checking prices of new vans daily as I believe (having been in business myself) that most dealers have their new, pre-ordered stock arriving now - many still have 2019 stock left and have all that on their bank loans outstanding... they desperately need some cash flow! We sold our van last year and intended to purchase another sometime later this year so were in a good position to buy for cash. We knew the exact van we wanted and watched those specific dealers’ prices... Long story short, I put in a really silly offer by text last week, which I truly expected to be rejected but leave further room for negotiation. Literally 15 mins later, my offer was accepted and I was asked for a number to discuss further. I got what amounts to 12% discount on a new 2020 van with the new 9 speed auto gearbox. Lucky??? I’m really not trying to be a smart a..se - just saying how it is... opportunity knocks!

Tourism and associated industry is big, big business in every country and I don’t believe any country is going to stifle the massive income from that any longer than needs be - despite what cautious comments are being made right now, things will be prioritised fairly rapidly before too long.......

Anyway, that is my two-penneth!
 
Going back to the start of this thread.
I have 2 friends in the motor trade. One says that servicing, repairs have taken a dive, and laid off 50% of staff. a, less miles being driven, b, money needed for more essentials, and c, SORN and uninsured.

The second reckons that a lot of businesses that run fleet / loan rental cars will be returning them as they won't have the travelling sales etc for at leat 1 year after the lockdown. When businesses will have the cash flow again to reorder. The effect will be that thousands of cars will go to auction. Buyers who currently own cars over 6 -7 years will be buying these up, as going to be low mileage and still with warranty. Then their cars will be bangers and sold for peanuts or scrapped.
It will be interesting to watch the BCA auction site that sells motorhomes, as I imagine that a lot of Moho dealers are going to shed a lot of their old stock just to keep going this year. So if looking to buy, good news, looking to sell or hand back to finance, really hard.
I read in the MMM mag yesterday that Dethleffs are hoping to resume production mid April. What do they know we don't?

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Tincataylor said:
If there are more buyers than sellers the price will increase, if there are more sellers than buyers the prices will drop.............simples.......

Mr Tinca
Click to expand...
I feel there just might be more buyers than sellers, as possibly smallish sites I.e CS’s CL’s may be allowed to open long before all flights take to the skies again, and even when they do tour operators will be able too name their prices as folks will be so desperate to have a holiday or break to brighten up their lives that they’ll be so over-subscribed and overpriced that a Motorhome will become an attractive option, Just my thoughts.
 
Spriddler said:
It's going to be a very long time before the risk of infection has passed, if ever. I've never been overly concerned before when staying in hotels but now I'd rather holiday, sleep and cook in my own clean m/h than take pot luck in a much occupied hotel; breakfast room, bed and bathroom etc. and no doubt many more will feel the same so I doubt that prices will fall significantly.
Click to expand...
And just imagine a holiday with a flight involved the air-con systems in aircraft would spread viral infections like wildfire.
 
Rodneyplonker said:
There is a lot of pessimism around at the moment, of course! However, there is also a lot of pent-up demand for everything and a real longing for things to return to normal which I liken to the “coiled spring” effect. (Did anyone see on TV last night, the queues outside fast food drive-in’s in NZ ?) Initially, of course, things will happen slowly... rather like a flower bud opening in Spring but, once movement starts all that pent up energy will burst out and human instincts will kick in. Yes, many workers have been laid off but, business is business and as demand increases the hiring signs will appear everywhere. For many years now, in the U.K. particularly, there has been a shortage of labour and that is not going to change soon. Of course, there will be a hit to the economy but I think that has already been factored into the future as further borrowing. I think world economies are going to regard that as the new normal...I have always been a naturally optimistic person! ?


For me personally, I saw this as an opportunity (“the time to be bold is when blood is running down the streets”) and have been checking prices of new vans daily as I believe (having been in business myself) that most dealers have their new, pre-ordered stock arriving now - many still have 2019 stock left and have all that on their bank loans outstanding... they desperately need some cash flow! We sold our van last year and intended to purchase another sometime later this year so were in a good position to buy for cash. We knew the exact van we wanted and watched those specific dealers’ prices... Long story short, I put in a really silly offer by text last week, which I truly expected to be rejected but leave further room for negotiation. Literally 15 mins later, my offer was accepted and I was asked for a number to discuss further. I got what amounts to 12% discount on a new 2020 van with the new 9 speed auto gearbox. Lucky??? I’m really not trying to be a smart a..se - just saying how it is... opportunity knocks!

Tourism and associated industry is big, big business in every country and I don’t believe any country is going to stifle the massive income from that any longer than needs be - despite what cautious comments are being made right now, things will be prioritised fairly rapidly before too long.......

Anyway, that is my two-penneth!
Click to expand...
Quite right (y) do you wish you had gone even lower now;)

Completely different but years ago in Turkey haggling on a carpet, as it was end of season he wanted to go back to Istanbul for the winter and would prefer the cash in the bank rather than holding stock, so he started at "last weekend I had Sting and Bobby Robson in here and that was £2000 but you can have it for £1200" a bargain you might think, well after 3 days he said will you give me £20 more than I paid for it, he got his purchase ledger out and we gave him about £200 from memory, and then he delivered it to our hotel 50 miles each way as we were on bikes and heading for the ferry from Datca to Bodrum before heading back to Marmaris.

Martin
 
Yes, we came back from NZ a week before lockdown and had three flights to get back home...Via Sydney and Dubai. We were a bit concerned as there were many Orientals on the plane. We had no masks either. A week after getting home we both had cold-like symptoms...not necessarily flu! Of course, we won’t know for a long while whether, or not, if it was a mild version of Cov 19? We both now feel that, as far as long haul flights are concerned, that is it! It’s Motorhome holidays for us!
 
I think that when this is over there will be an opportunity for entrepreneurs to open CL sites in UK. And as long as they keep their prices reasonable they should do well for at least a couple of years. Until the continent reopens for business. 4-5 years before we get back to some sort of normality. As for van prices, supply and demand as always. Don’t panic Mr Manwaring we are British we will win in the end !!!!!!!??

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gwyntaxi said:
And just imagine a holiday with a flight involved the air-con systems in aircraft would spread viral infections like wildfire.
Click to expand...
Yep, and being herded around at airports with folk coming and going from all around the world.
 
Funflair:
Yes... I could smell blood, as it were...asked for a few extras and agreed in the end, an extra AGM battery fitted. I was happy with that as I always believe if you screw people down too much they will resent it. I also wish to maintain good relations because of warranty/servicing in the future! Very happy with what I got!
 
funflair said:
Quite right (y) do you wish you had gone even lower now;)

Completely different but years ago in Turkey haggling on a carpet, as it was end of season he wanted to go back to Istanbul for the winter and would prefer the cash in the bank rather than holding stock, so he started at "last weekend I had Sting and Bobby Robson in here and that was £2000 but you can have it for £1200" a bargain you might think, well after 3 days he said will you give me £20 more than I paid for it, he got his purchase ledger out and we gave him about £200 from memory, and then he delivered it to our hotel 50 miles each way as we were on bikes and heading for the ferry from Datca to Bodrum before heading back to Marmaris.

Martin
Click to expand...
Premium took a pasting then, from the Turkish Carpet negotiator!
 
sallylillian said:
Premium took a pasting then, from the Turkish Carpet negotiator!
Click to expand...
They put up a better fight or possibly didn’t start with as much to play with.

Martin

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From today's The Daily Mash...
 

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Merryman said:
Going back to the start of this thread.
I have 2 friends in the motor trade. One says that servicing, repairs have taken a dive, and laid off 50% of staff. a, less miles being driven, b, money needed for more essentials, and c, SORN and uninsured.

The second reckons that a lot of businesses that run fleet / loan rental cars will be returning them as they won't have the travelling sales etc for at leat 1 year after the lockdown. When businesses will have the cash flow again to reorder. The effect will be that thousands of cars will go to auction. Buyers who currently own cars over 6 -7 years will be buying these up, as going to be low mileage and still with warranty. Then their cars will be bangers and sold for peanuts or scrapped.
It will be interesting to watch the BCA auction site that sells motorhomes, as I imagine that a lot of Moho dealers are going to shed a lot of their old stock just to keep going this year. So if looking to buy, good news, looking to sell or hand back to finance, really hard.
I read in the MMM mag yesterday that Dethleffs are hoping to resume production mid April. What do they know we don't?
Click to expand...
Hymer reported they started building again this week.
 
Rodneyplonker said:
Yes, we came back from NZ a week before lockdown and had three flights to get back home...Via Sydney and Dubai. We were a bit concerned as there were many Orientals on the plane. We had no masks either. A week after getting home we both had cold-like symptoms...not necessarily flu! Of course, we won’t know for a long while whether, or not, if it was a mild version of Cov 19? We both now feel that, as far as long haul flights are concerned, that is it! It’s Motorhome holidays for us!
Click to expand...
What you picked up on the planes,,was recirculated via the air-con system !! A sneeze at the front ,becomes an ingested germ at the back etc .Same in ANY building with 'air-con',Not used planes since the Eighties !! With a motorhome ,you are in your own space ,in your own time,with all your personal hygienic requirements about you.We gave up on hotels too !!
 
Garry Walden said:
One things for certain...all this talk of falling values and general doom and gloom will be seized upon by dealers when they are making a generous offer to take it off your hands...
Click to expand...
The dealers are in no better position than us--they have big overheads /interest to pay and its no use buying up everything if they cant shift them. Could end up going under and a lot more "bargains" up for grabs?

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Chris51 said:
The dealers are in no better position than us--they have big overheads /interest to pay and its no use buying up everything if they cant shift them. Could end up going under and a lot more "bargains" up for grabs?
Click to expand...
They could be strapped up with a long term expensive lease on their premises etc so no better then us . Not a good time to be stuck with a load of stock and all on borrowed money.
 
Spriddler said:
It's going to be a very long time before the risk of infection has passed, if ever. I've never been overly concerned before when staying in hotels but now I'd rather holiday, sleep and cook in my own clean m/h than take pot luck in a much occupied hotel; breakfast room, bed and bathroom etc. and no doubt many more will feel the same so I doubt that prices will fall significantly.
Click to expand...

I said to Lady Georgio only this lunchtime that it would be a long time before I would stay in a hotel or go to the theatre and the of madness of all madness is to fly on a jet , stuck in in a cigar shaped alluminium tube with 500 other people , madness I tell you. I can go all the way to costa del sol and only come into contact with about 4 other people. when folk realise this is a safe way to holiday it will sustain prices
 
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sallylillian said:
Say £2k per month, that's £24k per year capital repayment, 3 years term a van worth £72k plus whatever deposit you put down. I have no idea what finance companies loan on motor homes in terms of value percentage nor what term of repayment or interest rates, but it is easy to see how someone could easily get to thousands per month.
Click to expand...

Out of curiosity I was looking at pcp deals on nearly new VW California campervans.

EEEK! - £784 per month for 48 months. At least it is a usable car replacement, not just for camping.

Ferrari California Estate

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www.buyacar.co.uk www.buyacar.co.uk

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SpeedyDux said:
Out of curiosity I was looking at pcp deals on nearly new VW California campervans.

EEEK! - £784 per month for 48 months. At least it is a usable car replacement, not just for camping.

Ferrari California Estate

Search results page
www.buyacar.co.uk www.buyacar.co.uk
Click to expand...
Jeepers!
No wonder so many people search for, ask about and suggest cheap sites, diesel, gas, tyres, booze...…...and whinge at having to put a Euro in a site's meter for a shower. ;)
 
I forgot to say, said Bank Manager (middle aged male, obviously knew were I worked and what I was earning) said I don't blame you! I'll happily recommend your application!

Whole thing was, Credit was NOT automatic in those days. The rot set in when the built-in cooling off time whilst you arranged to see said Bank Manager, disappeared.

IMHO naturally. As one who was born (I think, after long observation!) with expensive tastes but also realism, to parents who regarded personal debt as more or less equal to committing murder/wife beating - perhaps it's me that's odd …...
 
sedge said:
IMHO naturally. As one who was born (I think, after long observation!) with expensive tastes but also realism, to parents who regarded personal debt as more or less equal to committing murder/wife beating - perhaps it's me that's odd …...
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With the exception of a mortgage I have lived by my Dad's advice: "If you can't afford to pay cash you can't afford it". Mind you, he was born in 1892 but it still makes sense to me.
I've never been particularly wealthy but I've never had a loan, HP, credit card or been overdrawn and neither have my two sons. Security and peace of mind is worth more to me than posh stuff.
 
jongood said:
Wow thats nice Martin, do you think I would be able to arrange a test drive:LOL:
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I don't see it for sale on their web site ;) I love the white mirror cases though.

Martin

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