Motorhome evolution in a diesel-banned future

[PhilG]

Iveco have been lobbying to get 3500kgs increased to 4250kgs for hybrid. IMO that would be a game changer.

This.

Unless this changes, its a non starter , these have to be based on a load carrying vehicle, and unless that vehicle has a load carrying capability , and a range , nobody will bother.

Everyone still ignores the fact that the grid is almost on its arse as it is, and there is no possibility that we can create and sustain the amount of electric needed , and more importantly the range that a delivery vehicle will need .

 

[Gromett]

Very clever tech info in the video "Grommet" but I have to admit I only watched the first 10 mins (which I did grasp) then thought, if I watch any more, I will lose what I just learnt ! ! !
I admire the technology. BUT, I remember watching a bit of Top Gear where Captain slow turned up on a motorbike powered by a carbon fuel cell ! ! And as Carbon is the most common element in the universe,
why are we not putting a bit more effort into developing the fuel cell ??
James May then lifted the fuel cell out of the motorbike and said that it would soon be able to power 200 houses ! !
Toyota have just made the first production car using a fuel cell.. Nothing comes out of the exhaust but a bit of clean moisture.
It is just a matter of developing a way of mass producing the carbon and storing it under pressure tanks for use in the vehicles.
Stripping the Hydrogen molecules from the Oxygen is apparently the "tricky" bit ! ! !
But we ARE surrounded by water ! ! !
NO prescious metals involved, which I think is great.
None of these developments are likely to affect things greatly in my lifetime, but are nontheless
Fascinating.
Mitch.

Fuel cells are nice and have their place. They are being developed heavily in this country and we are world leaders. They don't need hydrogen to run, then can run off any of the gaseous hydro carbons. Hydrogen, Natural gas (methane), propane and butane.



The downsides are. They are expensive. You need to have a source of this gas and install the infrastructure, They still emit CO2 (when using other than hydrogen). They are not as efficient (< 0% as I understand it for pure electric usage).

So all our petrol stations would have to be replaced with LPG stations, The cars would still need batteries to provide peak requirements and you couldn't refill at home or off peak.

The fuel cells as sold by Ceres are fantastic in a combined heat and power system where they heat the water and provide electric at the same time. In a car you would have to throw away the heat and this massively reduces their competitiveness. They are fantastic little devices and when they come down in price which is expected this year or next they will definitely be worth looking at.. But I can't really see them taking over in cars.

Batteries are definitely the future and they are here now.

 

[Gromett]

This.

Unless this changes, its a non starter , these have to be based on a load carrying vehicle, and unless that vehicle has a load carrying capability , and a range , nobody will bother.

Everyone still ignores the fact that the grid is almost on its arse as it is, and there is no possibility that we can create and sustain the amount of electric needed , and more importantly the range that a delivery vehicle will need .

2 things wrong here and I have covered the latter already many many times
1st. Payload. It is possible to produce a 3.5T van with a 100 Mile range now with the same payload as current vans.
Technology is moving forward and there are many weight improvements that can be made to existing van. The existing generation is basically the same as the diesel version using punched steel panels, very little work on aero dynamics and an almost full size braking system even though regen is doing most of the work.

Using modern composites and redesigning the vans to get rid of most of the ICE baggage and you could fit in more batteries and raise the payload.

2nd... On the grid front, please see my previous posts on other threads. Read the National Grid report, read up on grid scale storage and micro generation.

But briefly... Most cars (90% estimated) will charge at night when demand is low. Even if all cars were electric today, most would be charging at night and the demand would increase a lot but will still be below current daytime peak demand. The remaining 10% is the bit that needs looking at. Grid scale storage is set to take a lot of this on by storing off peak excess and releasing it during peaks. Local storage would take care of a lot of the super chargers needs. This is where a charging station has large banks of stationary batteries which are charged up by a combination of solar and night time off peak electric and put very little demand on the grid during the day. The there is micro generation. As solar panels on peoples houses become more and more common, people will start to install battery banks at home so they can be charged up during the day using their own solar panels and then that electric used at night to power their house. This will reduce peak demand on the grid. In addition companies and grid companies are working on the means to call upon these local battery storage system to boost the grid. This will also work with cars.. What happens is any connected battery bank can sign up to provide say 1Kw of power upon demand in return for a payment or bill offset. If you have 35 Million cars on the road and 2 Million houses with these battery banks, the grid can request 1Kw from each of them and immediately have a 37MW boost to the grid. Private companies are providing grid scale storage and many others are looking at it. Data centres for instance need huge battery banks for their UPS. To offset the cost they are making a % of this capacity available to the grid for demand management.

Over the last 2-4 years things like this have accelerated massively and over the next 10 years it won't just be a regular thing it will be the standard. Expect to see houses built with solar and batteries included. Businesses will start installing this technology very quickly. Don't be surprised to see supermarkets covering their roof with solar and building canopies over car parking bays with solar panels and charge points...

I could go on. But you get the idea I think? The grid is not going to be a limiting factor to the take up of electric cars.

 

[Gromett]

Unless this changes, its a non starter , these have to be based on a load carrying vehicle, and unless that vehicle has a load carrying capability , and a range , nobody will bother.

Just did a quick google to confirm my facts..

124Miles on a charge (empty) and other sources expect 100 Miles with a full load. 1,100KG payload which is comparable to existing vehicles.
The average van driver only does 70 miles a day..

With further developments on the horizon and improved battery technology range will be further increased in future models (long before the 2040 deadline) and by then superchargers will be everywhere and much more powerful... So every 150 Miles you have to stop for 15 to 20 minutes to top up....

Load area and practicality

Renault is keen to stress that the Master ZE is not a version, but a complete range. There are two variants; a panel van, available in three wheelbases and two roof heights, and a chassis cab in long wheelbase form. There are load lengths of 2,583mm, 3,083mm and 3,373mm, load heights of 1,700 and 1,894mm, with a standard load width of 1,765mm (1,380mm between the wheelarches).

The Renault Master has the lightest chassis on the market which means, even with the added weight of the heavy battery and motor, there is still a payload of between 1,000kg and 1,100kg on the panel van, dependent on wheelbase and roof height.

Electric motor and battery

Renault has created the Master ZE by reusing parts sourced from other vehicles within its ZE range. The R75 motor, for example, is inherited from the Zoe. It produces up to 76PS and 225Nm, and can reach a top speed of 71mph. As with most electric vehicles, the 225Nm of torque is available instantly, which means it will be quick off the mark – even with a full load on board. Combined with the gearless transmission, it is ideally suited for inner city courier work.

While the motor was developed and built in-house, Renault sought the expertise of LG Chem for the battery. Imported from Japan, the ZE33 battery (33kWh) has an impressive range of 124 miles when empty, according to NEDC figures, although it won’t be until closer to release that Renault will be able to assess a fully laden range.

Charging times were a key focus during the development stage, as the wall box charge of the previous generation Kangoo ZE drew some criticism.

“The feedback from Kangoo ZE operators suggested that very few people were using the fast chargers, and that most were using the wall boxes overnight but were left frustrated by the length of time it took,” said Normand.

“By improving the chemistry of the battery cells, a wall box charge of the new battery takes six hours, which is two hours less than the previous battery that also had a much shorter range. This demonstrates how far we have come with regard to technology in such a short amount of time.”

 

[PhilG]

Just did a quick google to confirm my facts..

124Miles on a charge (empty) and other sources expect 100 Miles with a full load. 1,100KG payload which is comparable to existing vehicles.
The average van driver only does 70 miles a day..

With further developments on the horizon and improved battery technology range will be further increased in future models (long before the 2040 deadline) and by then superchargers will be everywhere and much more powerful... So every 150 Miles you have to stop for 15 to 20 minutes to top up....

So what about all the drivers that do more than average miles.. where do you think they are all going to stop to charge up? And where will the electricity come from.

Our company, who it has to be said , are monumental bell ends at the best of times, made our company vehicle purchase scheme 0% emissions only and then said the 5 charge points we had were only to be used by visitors... there are 500 of us on site.

If you are running a milk float, or a post van, then great, but no transport manager anywhere will be falling over themselves to buy them for proper work.

We were at a friends house in germany the other week, a DHL post van was abandoned outside cos it was flat. Who needs that?

The first company to build one will be the first one to go bust.... then there will be price gouging at charge points, just like there is at Motorway fuel stops.. It another con that everyone is buying in to,including the car manufacturers.

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[Gromett]

So what about all the drivers that do more than average miles.. where do you think they are all going to stop to charge up? And where will the electricity come from.

I didn't say this would be for everyone and certainly not straight away. My guess is that within 10 years we will have 200-300 mile vans. As for getting the electric anyone can provide the service. It is not like petrol stations where there are limited number of refiners/suppliers. Competition will keep the price down... When you can choose between a petrol station one, a car park one and a supermarket one you can bet there will be competition.

Our company, who it has to be said , are monumental bell ends at the best of times, made our company vehicle purchase scheme 0% emissions only and then said the 5 charge points we had were only to be used by visitors... there are 500 of us on site.

Well that is your company being a dumbass, they will either learn or ......

If you are running a milk float, or a post van, then great, but no transport manager anywhere will be falling over themselves to buy them for proper work.

The current electric vans are suitable for 50% of the van users on the road range wise. In another 10 years probably 90% will be covered... We really are at the start of the cycle. Batteries have only just got down to a realistic price where they can be used for normal priced vehicles. The running costs of an electric vehicle will be very attractive to transport managers as will the reduced maintenance costs.

We were at a friends house in germany the other week, a DHL post van was abandoned outside cos it was flat. Who needs that?

Dumbass postal driver ignored the many many many warnings that the battery was running out? This is also the type of driver who doesn't check the fuel guage before leaving on his round so the same would happen there. At least with the electric van you could offer a nearby house or business €20 for a hookup to get you going again and avoid a long slog to the petrol station with a 5litre jerry can (or two).

The first company to build one will be the first one to go bust.... then there will be price gouging at charge points, just like there is at Motorway fuel stops.. It another con that everyone is buying in to,including the car manufacturers.

Sorry I disagree, There are already at least 5 on the market and more coming. They are selling well as I understand it and are going to sell more as awareness of their benefits spread. Again I say we are just at the start of development of these vehicles. As for price gouging at charge points. Not going to happen... If they put the price up local competition will put paid to the one doing the gouging...

Finally just because they don't work for your use case or your business doesn't mean they aren't attractive to others...

 

[Gromett]

@PhilG

Worth a read...

http://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/statistics/

We are really just at the start of this. Look at the growth figures graph. We really are at the start of the ramp up... In July 2.2% of all new vehicle registrations was for plug in EV's..

 

[DBK]

I've seen a remarkable number of Tesla cars in Italy over the last week or so. OK, single figures, but only just I think.

 

[Mr Chrysalis]

I'm not particularly green. If I'm honest, I drive a hybrid car because it does more than twice the mpg my old diesel used to do, not particularly because I think it will save the environment. However nobody seems to have brought up the environmental impact of mining lithium etc, nor the health and safety aspects of the child labour involved. Do Funsters have a view on this? @The Nomad, you might want to order some more popcorn.

 

[RogerThat]

Royal Mail are willing to take a punt:

Royal Mail's new electric vans unveiled

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41025771

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[RogerThat]

Even if it does look like it was designed for Postman Pat to use

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Wow! It's great when you post something with a genuine interest in learning something. In this case, thanks for all the insights and links for further reading...not that I'm an anorak on this topic! Just fascinated to see how this will disrupt Big Oil's game. When I see headlines saying that Germany or Portugal ran on 85%/100% renewables for X-number of days, I wonder how that will translate into the transport world. Electric cars I can see happening already. ZEV urban delivery vehicles too. Better data hubs for managing trips etc. So this post on future motorhomes has been enlightening. In the end, the moho makers will adapt whatever the commercial vehicle makers produce, yes?

 

[DBK]

I'm not particularly green. If I'm honest, I drive a hybrid car because it does more than twice the mpg my old diesel used to do, not particularly because I think it will save the environment. However nobody seems to have brought up the environmental impact of mining lithium etc, nor the health and safety aspects of the child labour involved. Do Funsters have a view on this? @The Nomad, you might want to order some more popcorn.

On a sort of related note I read recently that charging electric cars in the winter used a similar amount of fossil fuel as if the cars themselves were using fossil fuels directly. However, in summer, the much greater input from solar power farms made a significant reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels. Over a year the solar contribution made for an overall reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels.

Sorry, can't remember where I read this but it makes sense.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

However nobody seems to have brought up the environmental impact of mining lithium etc,

You're right. Transport of any mode has an impact. Even bicyles. All a matter of degree.
But... Lithium today? What might takes it's place in the future?

 

[Mr Chrysalis]

Even if it does look like it was designed for Postman Pat to use

You took the words out of my mouth. Needs a black and white cat.

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[barsteward]

Lolly pop sticks
Bill

just remind me will you, when did you last hear a Ducato sound like anything other than a sewing machine?


ooops should have chosen multiquote

 

[Gromett]

However nobody seems to have brought up the environmental impact of mining lithium etc, nor the health and safety aspects of the child labour involved. Do Funsters have a view on this? @The Nomad, you might want to order some more popcorn.

Lithium is one of the cleanest minerals to "mine". It is gained by evaporating lithium salts from brine... This is usually done in deserts as the salt flats there tend to contain the biggest Li deposits. Here is what they look like.

I don't spot any child labour? Do you?

There are so many myths about Li batteries it is unbelievable...

 

[Gromett]

On a sort of related note I read recently that charging electric cars in the winter used a similar amount of fossil fuel as if the cars themselves were using fossil fuels directly. However, in summer, the much greater input from solar power farms made a significant reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels. Over a year the solar contribution made for an overall reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels.

Sorry, can't remember where I read this but it makes sense.

That doesn't sound anything near right to me... It sound exactly like the anti leccy lobby myths to me...

For example.. A car is about 27% efficient. Most of the energy is lost through incomplete combustion, noise and heat. A Combined Cycle Gas plant is around 55% Even allowing for transmission losses... When you consider that renewables provided 46% of all electricity in 2015 Then it just doesn't make any sense?
Also Wind tends to produce more power in the winter and solar more in the summer. They don't balance each other out as we have a lot more wind than solar. So even if what you read was true it would be the other way round???

 

[Gromett]

PS: Wind graph..

 

[GWAYGWAY]

Being a pessimist I think that the world we know will be VERY different and that the general population, what is left of them will not be using vehicles or travelling anything like we do now. personal transport will not be the same at all, any more than it is for the ordinary people of North Korea now. There is the matter of Agenda 21 of the UN, in which a reduction of the population to about 3 billion will have happened . This is natural loss through pestilence and plague. Enjoy what you can now as we will be the last of the population to be able to do it. Electric propulsion is the way forwards for whatever is needed and it will not necessarily be battery. Government are very good at blaming something on someone and at the moment it is diesel emissions that are blamed. How much better are diesel than twenty years ago and then fifty years ago. If they claim we are killing millions by pollution they actually mean what happened then, is the reason, just bring the reason forwards to now to justify regulation.. LPG is very clean but it is out of favour now and the number of suppliers dropping all the time..

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[barsteward]

Fuel cells are nice and have their place. They are being developed heavily in this country and we are world leaders. They don't need hydrogen to run, then can run off any of the gaseous hydro carbons. Hydrogen, Natural gas (methane), propane and butane.



The downsides are. They are expensive. You need to have a source of this gas and install the infrastructure, They still emit CO2 (when using other than hydrogen). They are not as efficient (< 0% as I understand it for pure electric usage).

So all our petrol stations would have to be replaced with LPG stations, The cars would still need batteries to provide peak requirements and you couldn't refill at home or off peak.

The fuel cells as sold by Ceres are fantastic in a combined heat and power system where they heat the water and provide electric at the same time. In a car you would have to throw away the heat and this massively reduces their competitiveness. They are fantastic little devices and when they come down in price which is expected this year or next they will definitely be worth looking at.. But I can't really see them taking over in cars.

Batteries are definitely the future and they are here now.

Sounds like an ideal source of power for a steam engine.

 

[DBK]

That doesn't sound anything near right to me... It sound exactly like the anti leccy lobby myths to me...

For example.. A car is about 27% efficient. Most of the energy is lost through incomplete combustion, noise and heat. A Combined Cycle Gas plant is around 55% Even allowing for transmission losses... When you consider that renewables provided 46% of all electricity in 2015 Then it just doesn't make any sense?
Also Wind tends to produce more power in the winter and solar more in the summer. They don't balance each other out as we have a lot more wind than solar. So even if what you read was true it would be the other way round???

I may have misread it - or more likely misremembered. But the gist of it was renewables make a significant contribution which reduces the fossil fuel required to charge vehicles. And I guess wind works better at night than solar so until grid storage is established we need more windy nights.

 

[Gromett]

On a sort of related note I read recently that charging electric cars in the winter used a similar amount of fossil fuel as if the cars themselves were using fossil fuels directly. However, in summer, the much greater input from solar power farms made a significant reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels. Over a year the solar contribution made for an overall reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels.

Sorry, can't remember where I read this but it makes sense.

You got me curious so I did some back of the fag packet calculations... This is just rough and ready, I am sure I am missing something. But I don't think my conclusion is wrong though.. I know for a fact I am missing transmission losses amongst other things, however...

The CO2 generated by burning natural gas is 0.185 kg / kWh [DEFRA, 18]

A tesla P100D averages .3KWh per mile. So a Tesla P100D produces 0.185 x .3 = 0.0555kg CO2 per mile.

An average car does say 30Mpg which is 6.599 miles per litre.

A litre of petrol contains 2.3KG of CO2... 2.3KG / 6.599 = 0.348537657 kg CO2 per mile...

I could leave it there.... However less than 50% of our electric is produced by Gas...

So the Tesla would actually be closer to 0.02775Kg of CO2 per mile.

 

[Mr Chrysalis]

Lithium is one of the cleanest minerals to "mine". It is gained by evaporating lithium salts from brine... This is usually done in deserts as the salt flats there tend to contain the biggest Li deposits. Here is what they look like.

I don't spot any child labour? Do you?

There are so many myths about Li batteries it is unbelievable...

@Gromett , I don't know enough about this but I understand that cobalt is also used in the production of lithium batteries and that is where the child labour comes in. Personally, I believe that, if that is true, then we should be addressing the issue of how the cobalt is extracted ( i.e. Don't use child labour and do it safely) rather than stop using cobalt in the batteries.

 

[DBK]

You got me curious so I did some back of the fag packet calculations... This is just rough and ready, I am sure I am missing something. But I don't think my conclusion is wrong though.. I know for a fact I am missing transmission losses amongst other things, however...

The CO2 generated by burning natural gas is 0.185 kg / kWh [DEFRA, 18]

A tesla P100D averages .3KWh per mile. So a Tesla P100D produces 0.185 x .3 = 0.0555kg CO2 per mile.

An average car does say 30Mpg which is 6.599 miles per litre.

A litre of petrol contains 2.3KG of CO2... 2.3KG / 6.599 = 0.348537657 kg CO2 per mile...

I could leave it there.... However less than 50% of our electric is produced by Gas...

So the Tesla would actually be closer to 0.02775Kg of CO2 per mile.

Bit late at night for me now but I think there's something wrong there. Your figures suggest it could be some ten times more efficient burning fuel in a power station and charging a car with the electrical output than burning the fuel directly in a vehicle. Power stations are efficient but I don't think they are that good.

But I can't see the flaw in the argument at the moment! However - I'm on your side.

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[Gromett]

@Gromett , I don't know enough about this but I understand that cobalt is also used in the production of lithium batteries and that is where the child labour comes in. Personally, I believe that, if that is true, then we should be addressing the issue of how the cobalt is extracted ( i.e. Don't use child labour and do it safely) rather than stop using cobalt in the batteries.

You said

However nobody seems to have brought up the environmental impact of mining lithium etc

So I just took you at your word on Lithium

For Cobalt you are of course correct. However I believe that most manufacturers will be looking at less expensive chemistries going forward. LiCoO2 is the type that can flame out. LiFePO4 are much more stable and have a longer life. LiCo02 batteries have a slightly higher voltage so need less cells to make up the voltage and they also have a higher density. However the balance of longer lifespan, the non toxic nature and as you say political/environmental issues make LiFePO4 a more attractive option.

 

[tonyidle]

Lithi

I'm not particularly green. If I'm honest, I drive a hybrid car because it does more than twice the mpg my old diesel used to do, not particularly because I think it will save the environment. However nobody seems to have brought up the environmental impact of mining lithium etc, nor the health and safety aspects of the child labour involved. Do Funsters have a view on this? @The Nomad, you might want to order some more popcorn.

Lithium mining is in the news at the moment. Large deposits have been found in Cornwall dissolved in underground spring water. Extraction is about as e-friendly as you can get. The water can be pumped off-site for lithium extraction which isn't either risky or vastly power-consuming.

 

[vwalan]

seems like we shall have to go back to running on veggie oil. works a treat.
mind better in older vehicles .

 

[Gromett]

Bit late at night for me now but I think there's something wrong there. Your figures suggest it could be some ten times more efficient burning fuel in a power station and charging a car with the electrical output than burning the fuel directly in a vehicle. Power stations are efficient but I don't think they are that good.

But I can't see the flaw in the argument at the moment! However - I'm on your side.

I don't think it is just the efficiency of the power station, but the amount of carbon released when burnt. With gas the chemical reaction is fairly simple. With petrol combustion is a complex process and as there are up to 40 carbon atoms per molecule of petrol vs only 1 carbon atom per molecule of methane..... Not 100% certain on the chemistry or the reasons.

I simply looked at the figures for CO2 produced by burning methane and the CO2 produced by burning petrol... By the way I missed out the losses in Gas so the figure should be 0.203Kg per KWh not 0.185Kg per KWh. However that doesn't make much difference.

http://www.carbonindependent.org/sources_home_energy.html

 

[Gromett]

seems like we shall have to go back to running on veggie oil. works a treat.
mind better in older vehicles .

It wouldn't work. We would have to turn over vast swathes of the country to growing fuel crops which would push out food crops and basic economics dictates that food prices would shoot up....

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