Has the bubble burst

[Blue Knight]

It's the same with most things that cost a lot people feel insecure still I think. The extra bed won't help but also prices I think have risen quicker than inflation during the previous boom in sales. Always makes me laugh seeing all the stories about how it was with high interest rates no-one ever mentions that wage rises each year were a few% behind at worst and so after the first couple of years the mortgage in real terms was quite cheap. The house prices meanwhile were romping into the distance.

Yep, agreed.

I don't know about you but I've seen a fairly significant hike in some van prices this year.......and it's not all down to the extra VED too.

I'm a bit of a right arse (and risk adverse with our dosh) and it has certainly put me off from buying anything else.

 

[68c]

Watch that video of a Morello build then compare with one of a modern car plant. Even Morello are in the 1930's when it comes to production. No moving assembly line, each van wired up from scratch. The car guys take about thirty seconds to fit an entire dashboard and instrument panel using a robotic arm. Perhaps we need fewer manufacturers making fewer models so the economy of scale can get to work.

 

[Simon Select]

We have sold a van a more a day for 11 days so. I issue.

 

[Jaws]

No guessing, no what ifs, just take onboard the registration numbers for 2018/19
Highest number of new registrations ever !

If the bubble has burst it must have been replaced with a bigger one !!

 

[Blue Knight]

No guessing, no what ifs, just take onboard the registration numbers for 2018/19
Highest number of new registrations ever !

If the bubble has burst it must have been replaced with a bigger one !!

Sounds good, if I may what are the figures?

If your info refers to the 18-19 figures then could this not be a case of sellers clearing the stock.

I wonder what the sales volume versus the cost of sales was for this record number in FY18-19?

That said, this must be a southern-thing as they certainly aren't selling much gear in the NE or Scotland.

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[WESTY66]

We have sold a van a more a day for 11 days so. I issue.

I see you’ve sold my old bus!!??

 

[Blue Knight]

We have sold a van a more a day for 11 days so. I issue.

Your good name will help the sales Simon but sadly their ain't many like you mate - and I certainly don't think the other dealers could say the same in terms of sales stats.

I know of one big dealer whose sales tempo is much reduced - and it's this drop in margin that will effect the bottom line for the coming year(s) IMO.

 

[Simon Select]

I see you’ve sold my old bus!!??

Yes mate, went a couple of days ago! He complimented you on the condition!

 

[Coastal Cruiser.]

Spoke to a chap at Southdows this week and they sold 27 in January apparently.

 

[WESTY66]

Yes mate, went a couple of days ago! He complimented you on the condition!

Said it then and I’ll stand by it now, there was NOTHING wrong with it, never swapped it cos we wanted rid, we wanted the layout we have now, we just love our new bus (that little bit more)???

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[Lenny HB]

I noticed Hymer have reduced the number of models in the Exsis range. Hymer are the largest manufacturer in Europe and the Exsis is their best selling range. Hymer are normally quick to react to market changes so it confirms things are going downhill.

 

[ABZSteve]

Yep, agreed.

I don't know about you but I've seen a fairly significant hike in some van prices this year.......and it's not all down to the extra VED too.

I'm a bit of a right arse (and risk adverse with our dosh) and it has certainly put me off from buying anything else.

BK, I am the opposite, unless it is clothes, no sense of fashion, or more likely not paying over the odds for a bit of cloth, I am careless with our dosh. However, after spending many frightening £k’s on motorhomes and cars, all new every 3 years, I don’t think I will be doing that again in a hurry. I am eventually realising the rip off factor Wife will be happy There will however, be the new business folks, like I was, who don’t care at their stage. They will keep it ticking over.

 

[Ditcha]

You can sell as many as you like but you have to make the right margins to survive

 

[dulvil]

If dealers stopped selling so many Motorhomes, the workshops would be less busy and we could get our faults sorted quicker

 

[funflair]

Watch that video of a Morello build then compare with one of a modern car plant. Even Morello are in the 1930's when it comes to production. No moving assembly line, each van wired up from scratch. The car guys take about thirty seconds to fit an entire dashboard and instrument panel using a robotic arm. Perhaps we need fewer manufacturers making fewer models so the economy of scale can get to work.

You are more likely to find assembly lines and mass production at the lower priced higher volume end of the market but even that is very low volume compared to a car plant, MORELO only build about 7 vans per week and of that there are 6 different models before you go into the multitude of options and layouts so not really a candidate for much in the way of automated assembly.

Martin

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[Blue Knight]

If dealers stopped selling so many Motorhomes, the workshops would be less busy and we could get our faults sorted quicker

Perhaps we should change the first bit to:

"If dealers stopped selling so many motorhomes with faults and problems to begin with, the workshops.............".

 

[68c]

You are more likely to find assembly lines and mass production at the lower priced higher volume end of the market but even that is very low volume compared to a car plant, MORELO only build about 7 vans per week and of that there are 6 different models before you go into the multitude of options and layouts so not really a candidate for much in the way of automated assembly.

Martin

And that is why we pay too much. Let these niche product guys to the wall, let the rest of us buy sensibly priced vans. Would you truly be unhappy in a generic £30,000 van if it had all the kit and could be spares supported for the next twenty years. The depreciation would be less, resale easy. Think VW Camper but a bigger version.

 

[funflair]

And that is why we pay too much. Let these niche product guys to the wall, let the rest of us buy sensibly priced vans. Would you truly be unhappy in a generic £30,000 van if it had all the kit and could be spares supported for the next twenty years. The depreciation would be less, resale easy. Think VW Camper but a bigger version.

I wouldn't want to deny anybody the choice to spend their money on the van that suits them, they might be a relatively niche product but they don't seem to be struggling to fill their order books so I don't understand the "Let these niche product guys to the wall" comment.

Martin

 

[68c]

The thread suggested the bubble was about to burst, let it.

 

[funflair]

If there is a problem with a bubble I don't believe that it is and will be at the top end of the market, as they seem to be doing quite nicely thank you, especially over the water in the rest of Europe.

Martin

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[steve 6644]

I think the Chinese new love affair with their rapidly expanding home market for motorhomes will see them start looking at our markets. If I was a European manufacturer they would scare the crap out of me, they make some realy nice vans actually and know exactly how to enter a market nowadays. If anything is going to burst the remainder of the bubble for our spoilt manufacturers, it could well be imports from the likes of China who are new, fresh and will almost certainly be much cheaper.

 

[Madcaravanner]

And
Announced yesterday (Thursday 6/2/2020) that Staveley Head have gone for Bankruptcy - staff literally told to leave the building immediately

 

[jongood]

Watch that video of a Morello build then compare with one of a modern car plant. Even Morello are in the 1930's when it comes to production. No moving assembly line, each van wired up from scratch. The car guys take about thirty seconds to fit an entire dashboard and instrument panel using a robotic arm. Perhaps we need fewer manufacturers making fewer models so the economy of scale can get to work.

That approach wouldn't work with high end motorhomes, there are such a lot of choices that they offer that few are identical and the market wouldn't support the volumes.

 

[jongood]

And that is why we pay too much. Let these niche product guys to the wall, let the rest of us buy sensibly priced vans. Would you truly be unhappy in a generic £30,000 van if it had all the kit and could be spares supported for the next twenty years. The depreciation would be less, resale easy. Think VW Camper but a bigger version.

This is the mentality that produced the Trabant
The VW camper remark is even more comical as a new California is at least twice that.

 

[Lenny HB]

The depreciation would be less, resale easy.

In your dreams, mass produced cars depreciate massifly loosing 50% of there value in 3 years. My last Motorhome I lost 9% in 3 years when I traded it, previous one a bit higher at 23% over 6 years.

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[Blue Knight]

I think the Chinese new love affair with their rapidly expanding home market for motorhomes will see them start looking at our markets.

I can see the Chinese brand names on the UK forecourts Steve:

Autotrale....Olddis.....Bailiy.....Sweft

They're not big on copyright

 

[Jim]

Up and down cycles are natural in business, those companies who are quickest to react, those that have the most loyal customers base, those who increase customer contact when times are hard; rather than panic and slam the purse strings shut; are the ones who survive. Win win for us consumers.

 

[Coolcats]

I can see the Chinese brand names on the UK forecourts Steve:

Autotrale....Olddis.....Bailiy.....Sweft

They're not big on copyright

The Chinese could just buy existing manufacturers they already own a lot of the motor industry. They also own a lot of other stuff that once belonged to UK PLC such as some of our water companies........

 

[Khizzie]

It truly is horrendous up there I go early in season and thinking of going up when I get back from Scandinavia

Loved my six week tour of Scotland two years ago, but won't go again, just too many vans trying to find the best places to stop and more and more restrictions. I couldn't believe the bad manners of some of the foreign visitors who drove in convoys along the narrow roads beside Loch Ness almost forcing oncoming traffic to go into the ditches because there were too many of them to get into the passing places.. No sorry not for me again.

 

[Jenka]

What an interesting post!
Dad is right, we are the new kids on the block but as a group that turns over 300 million a year we thought we could have a go!
Our reputation so far with 250 motorhomes is 100%, the hard part is trying to maintain that. We tried to be pragmatic when we opened our doors. Look at failings, how can we do things A - Differently and B - Better. The only way we will grow in the motorhome world is by reputation and as a very large car group (Circa 8000) odd a year, our overall customer satisfaction is high 90's which is pretty impressive. However as a group of franchises you have to jump through so many hoops. With car sales, there is no money in it anymore however, the bonus's from manufacturers means dealers can still do very well however: One negative customer satisfaction survey back to the manufacturer can cost the dealer tens of thousands of pounds. Cock up enough and you will lose the franchise. Don't honour warranty work from another dealer, you fail the customer satisfaction survey and lose thousands of pounds. Thats why you can buy a car in Scotland and get warranty work done in Taunton for instance.
With the leisure industry, the manufacturers don't have the same clout. If Swift as an example said to Daves Motorhomes, you will spend £350,000 refitting your showroom to our standards, and you will take on other peoples warranty work, plus you will have a minimum stock level etc etc then Daves Motorhomes will just drop Swift and get Elddis in.
We were genuinely shocked as car dealers how backwards/ cottage/ shocking the leisure industry is. We simply refuse to become like that and we are trying to apply our standards to motorhomes.
We are starting to see the reward now as we have happy customers (Yes we have some hiccups along the way however we jump on them straight away) we also won a national award last month with Adria/ Sunliving.
We have also taken on warranty work from dealers that are terrible/ gone bust or simply won't help. For us its easy as we are big enough to cope with the reduced labour rate, it also helps, that with Bailey for instance, because we have 4 Peugeot dealers in group we can deal with Peugeot directly ourselves and not have to try and find a local Peugeot dealer that happens to have a commercial ramp.
So far we are on 8 motorhomes this week, 6 new and 2 used so I can't complain. I equally though can't talk about the glory days!

What a great post ,my dealer told me they were a one stop shop until I tried to get them to look at my Peugeot and told no find a dealer your self easier said than done !. You have obviously had a good teacher in customer service that's why I use Vanbitz.?

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