Part 3 - Into the Void

How do you predict the flight path?

Is it based on predicted wind direction?
 
Chris said:
How do you predict the flight path?

Is it based on predicted wind direction?
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The origin of the data is a US system called NOAA but at a practical level I'm accessing it using this website:

Redirecting you to SondeHub-Amateur...

Live tracking of radiosonde flights. Data via SondeHub v2. Includes weather overlay, predictions, and access to historic radiosonde flights on sondehub.
predict.habhub.org predict.habhub.org

The map above shows where balloon might be heading.

The NOAA system can also do on the fly predictions called hysplit but there seems to be a temporary glitch on running that at the moment. If it is working tomorrow it will be helpful - if the balloon reaches the Med it will possibly hit rough weather. Not that I can do anything about it if the balloon is heading for disaster!
 
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It's alive I think. Its just transmitted some data but all zeros probably because the gps doesn't have enough power to get a fix.

Screenshot_20200911-075630_Chrome.jpg


The message at the top appeared just as I was taking the screenshot. Its from the guy who wrote a critical part of the software and who is monitoring progress of the little balloon. :)
 
Exciting, like awaiting a new arrival
Out of interest, what was the approx cost of such a venture and have you thought about selling them.

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Borderland said:
Exciting, like awaiting a new arrival
Out of interest, what was the approx cost of such a venture and have you thought about selling them.
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This one is a bit expensive, the payload cost about £40 but the bulk of that is the gps chip which cost £25. I've since located cheaper alternative and the next one might be around £15. The gas pro rata was probably less than £5 but the bottle was £25 but has enough gas for many flights. I was amazed how little gas was needed - the balloon was perhaps only inflated to 10% of its volume.

I wouldn't sell one because of liability issues. :)
 
Nice and sunny in the Haute Pyrénées today, pity we will not be able to see it as it's so small. But what a great project.
Be interesting to see if it passes close to us. (43.1422150, 0.0689320)
 
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Should have put some Russian text on it, that would caused a stir when it lands. :giggle:.

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Its 400km to the Spanish border so at the current speed it will take around 14 hours to get there.
 
Spriddler said:
"Please Sir, please Sir, I can answer that!"
It could go on for years.

(DBK told me that in an earlier post :giggle: ).
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Do you mean it come back to where it started from.

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Borderland said:
Do you mean it come back to where it started from.
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DBK said:
The phrase used is it is a "super pressure" balloon. With a latex balloon the pressure inside the balloon is only very fractionally above atmospheric. With a "super pressure" balloon the gas will expand as the balloon rises but there will come a point when the fairly stiff material it is made out of stops expanding and resists the pressure of the gas. I'm testing these to 0.6 psi and as long as the pressure inside remains below that, which it should if I get my calculations correct and don't overfill the balloon the whole thing should rise to an altitude when it reaches neutral buoyancy and stops going up because the balloon won't expand any further. The internal pressure of the gas isn't enough to either burst the balloon or cause it to expand further. If you can get it right these balloons can last for months and go around the world umpteen times.
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EDIT:
Ah, I see what you're getting at in asking if it would drift back over its launch point. Interesting.
My guess is that it's unlikely yet possible depending upon whether it happened to get into an appropriate wind current, although the direction and strength of winds at its current 8,000m will be different from that when it was rising from its launch point. But what do I know? Fascinating.
 
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Might have missed something in past posts but out of interest, do you have to have any permission for this, can anyone send one up? How do the tracking stations know what it is, I know they probably have the number in the signals but do they know it's yours or where it came from?
 
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WillinFrance said:
Nice and sunny in the Haute Pyrénées today, pity we will not be able to see it as it's so small. But what a great project.
Be interesting to see if it passes close to us. (43.1422150, 0.0689320)
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I think it's probably going to cross the Pyrenees a bit further west but we shall see what path it takes today. :)
 
chaser said:
Might have missed something in past posts but out of interest, do you have to have any permission for this, can anyone send one up? How do the tracking stations know what it is, I know they probably have the number in the signals but do they know it's yours or where it came from?
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There's a thing called the 2m regulation which allows balloons no bigger than 2m in any direction including whatever is hung below them to be flown without permission from the CAA. There's also a weight limit I think but this balloon is well under it.

The radio is also operating at a power level and in a frequency band which doesn't need a Ham radio licence - although I'm working towards getting one of those. :)

The transmissions from it include a unique address which allows the system to identify it. The gateways themselves which are receiving the transmissions can't read the data as its encrypted and all they do is send the data to a server somewhere in Europe. A system I'm running on a Raspberry Pi in the spare bedroom checks this server for data packets from the balloon and then sends this data to the website which shows the balloon's position on the map. The most amazing this is all this is actually working! :)
 
The admins of the website have run a thing called Hysplit which gives a prediction of where the balloon might go. It has lots of pretty colours on it showing I believe different altitudes. I need to check on this but either way it looks as if it is heading towards the Mediterranean and possibly North Africa.

Edit: The colours are different altitudes and when I click on a line it shows the altitude. The green lines nearest Sardinia are the line it might take if it stays at it's current altitude. If this is correct we should see it swinging south east later today towards Toulouse. This is good news as it means it should stay nearer to Europe and might even reach Greece. If it flew over Africa I doubt we would be able to get any signals from it as the radio system is European based only.

scrn9.png

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Borderland said:
What would be the reason for the flight to end
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Bad weather is the usual cause. Thunderstorms in particular.

A bit of encouraging news is an almost identical balloon to mine was "seen" last night over Japan. It was launched a week ago but contact was lost with it while it flew over Asia. It's a much clever balloon than mine as it can change frequency depending where it is the world. Mine only runs on European frequencies the one over Japan can switch to frequencies used by the Japanese. If it makes it across the Pacific it will start broadcasting on North American frequencies.
 
I am just waiting for when it decides to hover over a major airport, grounding all flights, and then the authorities tracking the device back to where it was launched.
If this happens we will arrange some visits to whichever prison you are locked up in. :giggle:
 
Borderland said:
I am just waiting for when it decides to hover over a major airport, grounding all flights, and then the authorities tracking the device back to where it was launched.
If this happens we will arrange some visits to whichever prison you are locked up in. :giggle:
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Airports are not going to worry about traffic at nearly 30,000ft, there is loads of traffic flying over airports above 10,000ft
 
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This is getting addictive

please, no spoilers before each new episode!:giggle:

is there a second series in the offing?

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