Goodbye Lithium!

[PaulW2]

Not even beginning to address the land use problem. You assume that allocating more land for wind farms and solar farms is OK (it basically isn't) and then propose locating the batteries on the same land. Hey, why not locate them underground? Disused coal mines?

The other weasel word new to me is "peak shave". Why not call it what that basically is, electricity rationing. Reducing demand instead of increasing generating capacity to accommodate increased peak demand. It is as if consumption of electricity is the problem, when demand increases as a direct result of Net Zero policy to end gas for domestic heating, and targets for more heat pumps and EVs. The Government is pretending that the answer is for plebs to make more sacrifices, while paying higher tariffs for a restricted renewable supply of electricity. There will be pushback, because rationing energy is not acceptable in a modern industrialised society.

I think there is more space than we think.

Only about 2% (?) of the UK has buildings on it and even in densely populated Surrey there is more land dedicated to golf courses than housing.

"Buildings cover less of Britain than the land revealed when the tide goes out." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41901297

And of course one can have solar panels on buildings too.

Agriculture and solar farms can also coexist. As evidenced by sheep grazing under solar arrays. And solar farms can be established where the land is less arable. And rotating arrays that follow the sun, while more expensive, capture a lot more energy and are more space-efficient.

Agree with your general point about rationing and the way in which the general citizenry always seems to get it in the neck.

Small scale domestic generation may be part of the solution. But then, as soon as it threatens profits, that too will become subject to increasing regulation.

 

[Silver-Fox]

And of course one can have solar panels on buildings too.

Here is my gripe.

Why arnt all new builds required to have Solar panels fitted, enough to at least sustain the building they are on.

Especially large buildings that can feed into the grid system if required.

It’s like new housing sites that don’t have fibre fitted or at least ducting put in for easy installation.
It’s beyond me why it’s allowed to happen

 

[Gromett]

The other weasel word new to me is "peak shave". Why not call it what that basically is, electricity rationing.

No they are two completely different things. Peak shaving is where you charge a battery up at lowest demand using existing generating capacity. You then release this back onto the grid at peak times to prevent the need to start peaker plants.
You can also pay big users to reduce their usage at peak times, but this only works if the payments are high enough to compensate the company and low enough to be below the cost of starting a peaker plant. This is usually called load shedding though not peak shaving. I have just googled to get a definitive definition of the term and it appears the water has been muddied and they are now conflated, so your statement here is understandable.

That said. Please note for future reference when I talk about peak shaving I am talking about reducing peak generating demand using batteries or other storage methods. If I talk about load shedding I am talking about paying companies to voluntarily reduce their demand for short period.

I do not recognise any form of rationing has/is happening or is likely to happen in the UK. The deals with consumers to reduce usage is not about preventing us running out of electric it is about reducing their costs. They have plenty of generating capacity they just don't like turning on the expensive stuff at peak times. This is not the same as rationing.

 

[Gromett]

Why arnt all new builds required to have Solar panels fitted, enough to at least sustain the building they are on.

I am not sure that is a good idea after thinking about it for a while. What will happens is we will then have massive spikes of generation surrounded by massive falls.
Unless houses are also forced to have a degree of storage to make them more self sufficient the strain on the grid of lots of houses having solar would be increasingly difficult to manage.
I would prefer to see some way of encourage householders and business to install solar and storage.

Google "Duck Curve" for info.

 

[Gromett]

Reducing demand instead of increasing generating capacity to accommodate increased peak demand.

Just re-read this and thought... Hmmm???

I think you might want to look at this. Peak demand has been falling consistently for over a decade now alongside total usage.

and you are wrong. increasing generating capacity just to cover the small period each day when there is a peak is expensive and silly no matter which way you look at it.

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[Gromett]

SpeedyDux Guessing you might want a source for falling peak demand? Will the National Grid be a good enough source?

Can the UK grid cope with the extra demand from electric cars? | National Grid Group

As electric vehicles (EVs) become more widespread, this is one of the most common questions we’re asked. Find out what we're doing to make sure we're ready.

www.nationalgrid.com

 

[SpeedyDux]

Here is my gripe.

Why arnt all new builds required to have Solar panels fitted, enough to at least sustain the building they are on.

Especially large buildings that can feed into the grid system if required.

It’s like new housing sites that don’t have fibre fitted or at least ducting put in for easy installation.
It’s beyond my why it’s allowed to happen

I agree because there are thousands of acres of bare roofs on industrial estates. Likewise new housing developments should have solar panels. It will take compulsion and developers are major donors to political parties ...

I understand that the lightweight roof structures on modern industrial buildings cannot carry the weight of solar panels. They are going to struggle to insulate these giant crinkly tin sheds to meet the new legal requirement for C energy efficiency rating that is mandated for sale or lease. Landlords won't spend big money on structural improvements unless they are forced to.

The low hanging fruit for these developers is prime farmland. A story from today's Mail regarding 4,000 acres to site 1.5 million solar panels:

Villagers vent anger over plans for Europe's largest solar farms

Residents and farmers in Newark are furious at the proposal for a 7,000-acre solar park on productive agricultural land.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[SpeedyDux]

SpeedyDux Guessing you might want a source for falling peak demand? Will the National Grid be a good enough source?

Can the UK grid cope with the extra demand from electric cars? | National Grid Group

As electric vehicles (EVs) become more widespread, this is one of the most common questions we’re asked. Find out what we're doing to make sure we're ready.

www.nationalgrid.com

View attachment 848490

I am aware that electricity demand has fallen since 2002. This is primarily due to the decline in the UK's heavy industries that were major users of electricity. Steelmaking is one example.

You can cherry pick stuff of the National Grid especially that kind of PR designed to reassure the weak-minded and ignorant that All Will Be Well.

Here's a somewhat different projection of the increased peak demand, from National Grid Future Scenarios:

"Electricity peak demand could be as high as 85 GW in 2050, compared to around 60 GW today, driven by a number of factors. Electric vehicles are projected to reach around one million by the early 2020s, and there could be as many as nine million by 2030."

That assumes only 9 million BEVs by 2030 out of a current 33 million cars in the UK. I can see why the government is pushing to reduce private car journeys by as much as 80%, and at the same time make ownership and use of private cars more expensive and less convenient. This fits in with the announcement reported today that they are aiming to legislate so fully autonomous cars will be legal on our roads by 2026 without a safety driver (bit optimistic!).

Right now Gridwatch Templar shows demand is about 32 GW due to the mild temperature. Good fortune for the Grid. Wind is 47.6% but solar 0.3%. Gas and coal appears to be stood down while nuclear and biomass are going flat out.

There is not a snowball's chance in hell that renewables are going to generate 85 GW in winter.

 

[cyberyacht]

My rooftop 4Kw installation has produced 200w today and has shut down already because it's so murky.

 

[Silver-Fox]

I am not sure that is a good idea after thinking about it for a while. What will happens is we will then have massive spikes of generation surrounded by massive falls.
Unless houses are also forced to have a degree of storage to make them more self sufficient the strain on the grid of lots of houses having solar would be increasingly difficult to manage.
I would prefer to see some way of encourage householders and business to install solar and storage.

Google "Duck Curve" for info.

Then ensure batteries are included on the install.

The added cost is negligible to the price of a new build house.

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[Gromett]

"Electricity peak demand could be as high as 85 GW in 2050,

That is a LONG way in the future and we have plenty of time. It is a prediction so far out as to be practically meaningless to be honest.

This is primarily due to the decline in the UK's heavy industries that were major users of electricity. Steelmaking is one example.

Not so. The primary reason is an improvement in efficiency. Yes some of it can be attributed to a decline in major industries. BUT most of those industries left BEFORE the decline happened.
It really is the improved efficiency and for that we do have the EU to thank in large part.

The other reason demand is falling is the rise in self generation by business and households.

 

[Gromett]

Then ensure batteries are included on the install.

The added cost is negligible to the price of a new build house.

Not really. A few thousand here, a few thousand there and pretty soon you have priced pretty much all first time buyers out. Remember the new prices impact second hand prices.

 

[Gromett]

I am aware that electricity demand has fallen since 2002. This is primarily due to the decline in the UK's heavy industries that were major users of electricity. Steelmaking is one example.

You can cherry pick stuff of the National Grid especially that kind of PR designed to reassure the weak-minded and ignorant that All Will Be Well.

PS: I am not cherry picking. I was responding directly to an incorrect statement you made. You are now conflating demand with peak demand.
My cherry picking was a response directly to you saying this;

Reducing demand instead of increasing generating capacity to accommodate increased peak demand.

 

[SpeedyDux]

SpeedyDux Guessing you might want a source for falling peak demand? Will the National Grid be a good enough source?

Can the UK grid cope with the extra demand from electric cars? | National Grid Group

As electric vehicles (EVs) become more widespread, this is one of the most common questions we’re asked. Find out what we're doing to make sure we're ready.

www.nationalgrid.com

View attachment 848490

Furthermore, even my basic maths says a projected increase in peak electricity demand from 60GW to 85 GW in 2050 isn't 10%. You have quoted a flat-out bit of disinformation by NG. 25 GW increase is close to 42% not 10%. I hope you find that amusing as well.

It goes to show that the NG contradicts itself, and its basic sums don't always add up. Carry on as a believer. Net Zero is a type of cult.

 

[Silver-Fox]

Not really. A few thousand here, a few thousand there and pretty soon you have priced pretty much all first time buyers out. Remember the new prices impact second hand prices.

Maybe not such a bad thing.

Prices maybe a bit more stable then?

Would be better than all this poncing around and throwing good money into solar or wind farms for very few to make a big profit in grants etc.

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[SpeedyDux]

Not really. A few thousand here, a few thousand there and pretty soon you have priced pretty much all first time buyers out. Remember the new prices impact second hand prices.

Really. You haven't understood the house builder financial business model, nor the trickle supply marketing methods designed to keep newbuild prices at a premium above prices of comparable older housing stock in the same area. Which explains why the housebuilders sit on 5 year land banks, and their annual output of 170,000 newbuild dwellings is so far short of government targets yet they still get away with it. House developers could easily afford to include roof solar for free with every newbuild if it wasn't for their greed. It requires compulsion.

 

[Silver-Fox]

House developers could easily afford to include roof solar for free with every newbuild if it wasn't for their greed. It requires compulsion.

 

[Gromett]

Furthermore, even my basic maths says a projected increase in peak electricity demand from 60GW to 85 GW in 2050 isn't 10%. You have quoted a flat-out bit of disinformation by NG. 25 GW increase is close to 42% not 10%. I hope you find that amusing as well.

It goes to show that the NG contradicts itself, and its basic sums don't always add up. Carry on as a believer. Net Zero is a type of cult.

I give up. I note you do not give a link to your source. So you expect me to google for stuff you have already found.

As you can see the source of that quote is the 2017 document.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/document/138976/download

The most recent one has removed that prediction, and has a far more nuanced and positive response.

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/283101/download

 

[SpeedyDux]

I give up. I note you do not give a link to your source. So you expect me to google for stuff you have already found.

As you can see the source of that quote is the 2017 document.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/document/138976/download

The most recent one has removed that prediction, and has a far more nuanced and positive response.

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/283101/download

Which is why I grow more sceptical regarding the NG's promises and changing "nuanced" projections, that look increasingly about as trustworthy as party political manifestos. It is as though they are tailored to suit an agenda instead of realism. I understand perfectly and agree that Net Zero 2050 cannot be achieved without reducing our standard of living and that must include rationing electricity, either by increased consumer prices, or compulsory disconnection at peak times.

Yesterday where I live we had 3 brief power outages in the same evening. I had to carry a torch around the house, just in case. It illustrates that the old local distribution network is reaching end of life. It desperately needs to be replaced and probably upgraded to meet additional demand. Which will take a lot of money, labour and materials. Replicate that across every town and city and you can see the challenge involved in the switch from fossil fuel to renewable electricity. Assuming that demand will increase by only 10% is wishful thinking. 40% or even 50% is more realistic.

 

[Gromett]

Yesterday where I live we had 3 brief power outages in the same evening. I had to carry a torch around the house, just in case. It illustrates that the old local distribution network is reaching end of life.

Moving onto a totally different topic. I kind of agree. The local distribution network needs upgrades in places. but it is not end of life and does not need completely replacing.
Peak demand can be handled by localised storage obviating the need for some upgrades that some seem to think are required.

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[Raul]

Peak shave its something else, not rationing, but limiting a set amount of load from the grid, then make up the difference from the batteries.

 

[Guigsy]

Only about 2% (?) of the UK has buildings on it and even in densely populated Surrey there is more land dedicated to golf courses than housing.

Across the UK as a whole, there's twice as much land area for golf courses than housing.

 

[SpeedyDux]

Across the UK as a whole, there's twice as much land area for golf courses than housing.

I vote for putting all new solar farms on golf courses. Members can still play a round of golf under / between those panels. Sorted!

 

[SpeedyDux]

Peak shave its something else, not rationing, but limiting a set amount of load from the grid, then make up the difference from the batteries.

Batteries, eh. Right now they couldn't even support the Grid for 20 minutes. At best they might help ESO do the balancing.

Another weasel word for electricity rationing is what NG calls "consumer transformation". Discuss.

 

[Gromett]

Given the improvements we've seen in EVs in the past 5 years, solid state batteries probably won't seem so impressive by the time they appear.

How right you were... 5% degradation after 1,000 cycles doesn't sound that impressive to me.

But then I thought. How much is that in a 300 mile range car. It is 300,000 miles and only 5% deg.
That is not shabby after all.

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[Gromett]

Looks like Lithium are now old hat, is it goodbye Lithium ? certainly makes for interesting times ahead.

Quantum batteries offer revolution in energy storage

It could mean everlasting electronics and cars that recharge quicker than it takes to fill up a tank of fuel. Anthony Cuthbertson discovers that scientists leading the development of quantum batteries are now optimistic of making them a reality

www.independent.co.uk

Another article on quantum. This one shows why I don't expect much and the hype train is continuing.

Interesting read.

Quantum computing startup says it will beat IBM to error correction

Company builds on recent demonstration of error-tracking in similar hardware.

arstechnica.com

 

[ChrisL]

An interesting review of LTO cells here.

 

[Manxcat]

I think they fit an almost incalculable number of passengers, so quantum.

And a cat

 

[busby]

I am still waiting to buy one of those flying cars we were told about in th 70s BUSBY

 

[Gromett]

An interesting review of LTO cells here.

LTO are brilliant but not new. Downside is they are expensive still.
I am all in on LiFePO4 which for most uses are perfect and have fallen in price so much that anything else looks silly unless absolutely essential.

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