Carpmart
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MHF never ceases to impress! I’m truly flabbergast at the detailed knowledge that exists around how VC’s currently model their strategic investment strategies… 
Goodbye Lithium!
- Thread starter dorkins
- Start date
I think you may have replied to that post before seeing my follow on posts which said this.
The chinese quantum communications system is still a development/research project that has not been proven to work yet. I would take anything claimed by china with a pinch of salt.
Quantum computers are extremely fast but not very accurate so you have to run the "calculations" multiple times and use a traditional computer to work out which result(s) have the best odds of being right.
So you have traditional computers that are relatively slow (but getting faster all the time) and quantum computers that are incredibly fast but not really getting more accurate as the years pass as far as I can tell.
The working commercial systems you mention are at best research projects/products and are not used in any real world application as far as I know. Even the NSA states that quantum computing is not there yet, and they will be the biggest customer.
If you can show me 1 practical quantum product that is commercially available today and performs a useful purpose better than any other tech I will withdraw my statement.
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Capitalist Pig Dogs...
Off with their heads.
"Invest" spare money on burgers and Temu toys.
JJ
Off with their heads.
"Invest" spare money on burgers and Temu toys.
JJ
Energy storage needs many features to be useful for transport:
-high energy volume density (so it doesn't take up too much room)
-high energy weight density (so it doesn't eat all your payload)
-high current transfer (so you can charge it fast and produce enough drive power to get up a hill)
-high charge-discharge efficiency (so you're not wasting the energy you put in)
-high cycle life (so it's not lost half its range in a year)
-suitable thermal envelope (so it works well at common outside temperatures)
-robust and safe
There's loads of energy storage technologies being developed. But many of them aren't that useful for transport.
These quantum batteries are not much more than lab experiments proving the theory. They haven't even identified the materials that might be useful in a real world application. It's a potential future tech and a loooong way from being a mass manufactured product.
-high energy volume density (so it doesn't take up too much room)
-high energy weight density (so it doesn't eat all your payload)
-high current transfer (so you can charge it fast and produce enough drive power to get up a hill)
-high charge-discharge efficiency (so you're not wasting the energy you put in)
-high cycle life (so it's not lost half its range in a year)
-suitable thermal envelope (so it works well at common outside temperatures)
-robust and safe
There's loads of energy storage technologies being developed. But many of them aren't that useful for transport.
These quantum batteries are not much more than lab experiments proving the theory. They haven't even identified the materials that might be useful in a real world application. It's a potential future tech and a loooong way from being a mass manufactured product.
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If we’re going to compare the two energy sources we can’t pick and choose which failure modes to discuss.
Your chosen LPG failure mode of slow gas release is akin to discharging a battery through a power resistor. Nothing much happens albeit it’s interesting to an observer.
However, if you choose the worst case failure mode then it’s a different matter. A catastrophic LPG containment failure, and ensuing explosion, is potentially way more destructive than a battery short circuit. Throw in the conditions (i.e. a vehicle fire) that could yield a BLEVE then there’s absolutely no comparison.
As I said originally, batteries have some way to go before they reach the energy density of LPG, yet we dont promulgate fear around LPG.
Ian
Toyota have announced it is on the brink of manufacturing solid state batteries, which is potentially a big leap forward. The BBC World Service has a podcast about this which I found easy to follow and interesting. Possibly not news for technos who have been following battery developments for years but for interested bystanders like me just what I needed.
It can be found on BBC Sounds. Look for “The Inquiry, Has Toyota Solved the Electric Car Battery Problem?”
It can be found on BBC Sounds. Look for “The Inquiry, Has Toyota Solved the Electric Car Battery Problem?”
I'm betting that you won't be able to buy a Toyota that is using a mostly solid state battery for less than £100k before 2028.
I wasn't referring to the catastrophic failure scenario. Both Lithium and LPG would present a major hazard.
Lithium batteries heat up during rapid charging and discharge. It can be dangerous to rapid charge / discharge them at very low or very high temperatures. Thermal management of the battery can be absolutely critical for safety. Those infamous Boeing 787 battery fires are an example of arguably insufficient attention paid during safety design and certification to the risk of runaway lithium battery fires. Fear? Yes, it did look rather scary at the time, and might well have put some passengers off travelling on the 787 Dreamliner with its newfangled all-electric non-hydraulic systems.
Whereas AFAIK LPG stays cool enough even when there is comparable rapid energy transfer rate in or out of its pressure container. As long there is no leak and no ignition source nearby. Or, basically, human error meets flammable gas.
You raised the point that higher energy densities in batteries would be an area of concern and my initial point was simply that batteries have some way to go to reach the energy density of LPG yet we are happy, with little concern, to cart that around in our vehicles.
The key issue with any high hazard system is to have appropriate systems/measures in place to ensure that they are adequately safe. In that respect, future battery technologies with higher power densities shouldn’t be of any concern.
Ian
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The timeframe is covered in the podcast. 2028 would be the earliest we are likely to see solid state batteries.
Looks like an early 30s Riley. Possibly a 9?dorkins May I be nosy please,and ask you what is the make/model of your car in the avatar?
Im on the lookout for a Talbot 14/45 but they are few and far between,it seems.
Two on Tour
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dorkins May I be nosy please,and ask you what is the make/model of your car in the avatar?
Im on the lookout for a Talbot 14/45 but they are few and far between,it seems.
Looks like a Riley 14-6 to me.
and manufacturing defects.
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EV battery startup QuantumScape starts shipping prototypes to automakers, a key milestone
It's a key step for QuantumScape, but actual commercial production of its EV batteries is still at least a few years away.
Given the improvements we've seen in EVs in the past 5 years, solid state batteries probably won't seem so impressive by the time they appear.
Given how expensive they currently are, I suspect most implementations will use hybrid batteries that are only partially solid state.
Think you could be right. I bow to superior knowledge. (I'm only a youngster
).
OP
OP
Hi #Podney, sorry , not a Talbot, it's actually a 1932 Riley Kestrel, often told it can't be a '32 as the kestrel was launched in '33, this one is the prototype built for the 1932 Olympia motor show prior to its launch in 1933. My dad bought it in 1945 and been in the family ever since, I suspect I will be the last custodian which leaves me with some sad decisions to make in a few years!dorkins May I be nosy please,and ask you what is the make/model of your car in the avatar?
Im on the lookout for a Talbot 14/45 but they are few and far between,it seems.
Two on tour is correct it is a 14/6 but the only 2 doored streamlined fastback body, the first "aerodynamic" body constructed in the UK. it has several differences to the production model, on the inside of the door cards it has notes and calculations of the men doing the building.
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pappajohn
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With current technology and engineering advancements steam could make a comeback. 
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Thanks. Wow,what a beauty,and what a history! Lovely looking car. An old friend of mine,long since passed, used to tell me proudly about his Riley Kestrel and what a great car it was.If I pay you £1 a week,can I have it?? Lol
PS. Sorry to hijack your thread.
OP
OP
I'll let you know!Thanks. Wow,what a beauty,and what a history! Lovely looking car. An old friend of mine,long since passed, used to tell me proudly about his Riley Kestrel and what a great car it was.If I pay you £1 a week,can I have it?? Lol
PS. Sorry to hijack your thread.
The principles of lithium in current form, you can have high density energy, ( mass and volume), or, high power: ( rapid charge/ discharge). The later are similar to lead thin plates enabling high charge/discharge rates, but limited energy density.
Lithium layers, can be micron size thin and several layers, that can make a 30C rate cell, ( power tools and RC packs). Or, thicker layers, limiting the cel at 1 to 0.3C, but long life and high energy density. The EV breed it is a cross, a bit of energy density and a bit of power density. The higher the power density, the more can tolerate the temperature swing. So far so good, but the Achilles hill of these cells is the organic electrolyte. The electrolyte brakes down with use and can not transferee the ion exchange. Hence lithium plating in sub zero charging. The separators are cheap and weak at the moment. But, lithium will be with us for the next 20-30 years
BLEVEs (boiling liquid expanding vapour explosions) are disasters - remember Mexico City in 1984 which killed 500-600 people. In the late 1990s there were more than one car fire, in cars powered by LPG, that resulted in BLEVEs killing the firemen fighting the fires.
Message then: if your van catches fire, run away and stay well clear until it burns itself with, or without, a BLEVE of your gas tank.
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I think this is a more likely solution to the grid scale storage problem than any Quantum, solid state or Sodium storage.
Iron Air for grid scale seems like a viable contender and looks like they are starting to build a factory to produce them. This will be the BIG one that makes intermittent renewables a viable, practical and cheap solution going forward.
The 1970s tech being resurrected is genius in my opinion.
Shame this article blasts at coal, slips sideways into politics and skips some of the technical stuff. But it shows that it is a viable solution and doesn't require anything new like Quantum etc.
cleantechnica.com
Iron Air for grid scale seems like a viable contender and looks like they are starting to build a factory to produce them. This will be the BIG one that makes intermittent renewables a viable, practical and cheap solution going forward.
The 1970s tech being resurrected is genius in my opinion.
Shame this article blasts at coal, slips sideways into politics and skips some of the technical stuff. But it shows that it is a viable solution and doesn't require anything new like Quantum etc.
Coal State Exports Coal-Killing Iron-Air Energy Storage
The coal producing state of West Virginia is hosting a new factory that will send coal-killing iron-air energy storage all around the US.
cleantechnica.com
A paper from the 1960's by NASA explaining the benefits and problems with Iron Air batteries. Materials science has come a long way since then.
This is a fascinating read if you are interested in batteries.
I think NASA may have not developed this due to the relatively low energy density and the dual voltage plateaus. Hefting big chunks of iron into orbit may not have been optimal.
I think though for grid scale long cycle storage it will be perfect. Modern FETs could easily deal with the dual voltage issue and materials science has come a long way so the oxidisation and self discharge issues should be resolvable.
It appears the company in my previous post think so as well as it has put $760Million into a new facility to make them.
From Form Energies website.
formenergy.com
This is a fascinating read if you are interested in batteries.
I think NASA may have not developed this due to the relatively low energy density and the dual voltage plateaus. Hefting big chunks of iron into orbit may not have been optimal.
I think though for grid scale long cycle storage it will be perfect. Modern FETs could easily deal with the dual voltage issue and materials science has come a long way so the oxidisation and self discharge issues should be resolvable.
It appears the company in my previous post think so as well as it has put $760Million into a new facility to make them.
From Form Energies website.
Battery Technology
The active components of our iron-air battery system are some of the safest, cheapest, and most abundant materials on the planet — low-cost iron, water, and air. Iron-air batteries are the best solution to balance the multi-day variability of renewable energy due to their extremely low cost...
formenergy.com
I think this is a more likely solution to the grid scale storage problem than any Quantum, solid state or Sodium storage.
Iron Air for grid scale seems like a viable contender and looks like they are starting to build a factory to produce them. This will be the BIG one that makes intermittent renewables a viable, practical and cheap solution going forward.
The 1970s tech being resurrected is genius in my opinion.
Shame this article blasts at coal, slips sideways into politics and skips some of the technical stuff. But it shows that it is a viable solution and doesn't require anything new like Quantum etc.
Coal State Exports Coal-Killing Iron-Air Energy Storage
The coal producing state of West Virginia is hosting a new factory that will send coal-killing iron-air energy storage all around the US.
"“Depending on the system size, tens to hundreds of these power blocks will be connected to the electricity grid. For scale, in its least dense configuration, a one megawatt system comprises half an acre of land. Higher density configurations would achieve >3 MW/acre,” they add."
That effectively requires a lot of land to provide your Grid-scale electricity storage. Have you a source that also provides the calculation for the land area required to provide (say) 40 Gw of backup for even one hour? How about 24 hours? 10 days without wind, a worst case scenario?
This is all very well in the USA where there is far lower population density than the UK. Many US States comprise vast rural areas, and even deserts, that can be used for renewable generation sites and giant battery arrays without significant impacts on the rest of the population.
A fleet of SMRs is the most logical way forward for the UK. SMRs require relatively tiny sites for producing non-intermittent base load at Grid scale, unlike land-intensive wind farms and solar farms. That still leaves the problem of enough dispatchable electricity if the governent "decarbonises" generation i.e. bans gas, coal and diesel generators. In that future electricity scenario, by 2035 /2030 which is getting much closer, there will still be a need to ration demand via rolling blackouts and/or selective "smart" disconnections at peak times in winter.
The combination of Net Zero's mandated targets for extra wind farms, solar farms, and potentially adding proposals for vast grid scale batteries, all to try to overcome the inherent intermittency problem, is getting really silly in terms of onshore land grabbing. This land grab must compete with the need for newbuild housing, already in short supply, as well as the need for sustainable UK agricultural production and better food security. Next, someone probably will say that the WEF's solution we should adopt is factory-farmed bugburgers and hydroponic sheds for everything to feed the UK's population. Ban single occupancy dwellings and the housing shortage will end. Ban private vehicles and mandate 15 minute neighbourhoods. Good luck with that. The Great Reset, here we come. You will own nothing and be happy.
The renewable energy zealots need to take off their blinkers and realise they can't have it all their way. Their whizzy technology is as much a problem as a solution for a densely populated country such as England. Wales and Scotland are sparsely populated so why not use them as the test bed and see what happens, eh.
These will be co-located amongst generating capacity and specced to provide enough capacity so the contracted output can be met at all times. Look at the space in between wind turbines. That is all land that could be used for a combination of storage and solar.
Solar farms could have them install under the panels in a slightly different format.
Businesses could have packs co-located on their premises.
We are not talking about massive installations in one place as that would not serve the purpose. You want them installed either near the demand or near the generating capacity. The former to provide supply during high demand periods to reduce the need for grid upgrades and to peak shave. The latter to ensure that intermittent generating capacity does not cripple the grid in worst case scenarios.
And no I am not going to give you figures. They are meaningless. A big number means a bigger installation is required. It doesn't mean it is impossible or impractical.
Not even beginning to address the land use problem. You assume that allocating more land for wind farms and solar farms is OK (it basically isn't) and then propose locating the batteries on the same land. Hey, why not locate them underground? Disused coal mines?
The other weasel word new to me is "peak shave". Why not call it what that basically is, electricity rationing. Reducing demand instead of increasing generating capacity to accommodate increased peak demand. It is as if consumption of electricity is the problem, when demand increases as a direct result of Net Zero policy to end gas for domestic heating, and targets for more heat pumps and EVs. The Government is pretending that the answer is for plebs to make more sacrifices, while paying higher tariffs for a restricted renewable supply of electricity. There will be pushback, because rationing energy is not acceptable in a modern industrialised society.
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