Goodbye Lithium!

dorkins

dorkins

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Looks like Lithium are now old hat, is it goodbye Lithium ? certainly makes for interesting times ahead.

www.independent.co.uk

Quantum batteries offer revolution in energy storage

It could mean everlasting electronics and cars that recharge quicker than it takes to fill up a tank of fuel. Anthony Cuthbertson discovers that scientists leading the development of quantum batteries are now optimistic of making them a reality
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 
Formally proposed in 2012. Now.....

While they are still largely in the theoretical stages of development,...
Click to expand...

I feel it could be a while!
 
dorkins said:
Looks like Lithium are now old hat, is it goodbye Lithium ? certainly makes for interesting times ahead.

www.independent.co.uk

Quantum batteries offer revolution in energy storage

It could mean everlasting electronics and cars that recharge quicker than it takes to fill up a tank of fuel. Anthony Cuthbertson discovers that scientists leading the development of quantum batteries are now optimistic of making them a reality
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
Click to expand...

Don't hold your breath waiting for it to arrive to market. :rolleyes:

" The only problem is, no one is quite sure yet whether they will actually work at scale."

Not many positives to take from the article are there. :cautious:
 
Could have duplicated this post as I got in a muddle with editing and thought I had lost the first post so re posted!

Put it down to the pain killers after busting a leg!
 
If they are discussing a real world product and using quantum in the description it is hokum at least for now. Anything Quantum is theoretical at best currently.

Even recent quantum computers have issues that normal computers don't.

2 real technologies to look for are Solid state and Sodium. Solid state is still in development but may come good. Sodium is now in production but the energy density means it is not suited to cars other than really short range ones. But for static storage it may well be good but need to come down in price a lot as it is not much cheaper than LiFePO4 currently.
 
Quantum computers have had billions spent on them and real engineering products developed. But as of yet they are completely useless. I just went to a document from a relatively reputable source as reference for anyone who is interested.

www.nature.com

Quantum computers: what are they good for?

For now, absolutely nothing. But researchers and firms are optimistic about the applications.
www.nature.com www.nature.com
 
Littlewheels said:
Almost sure l saw a feature a couple of weeks back that Toyota have some serious investment In Quantum powered vehicles that they are now backtracking on EV as Quantum is the future.

Here it is: https://images.app.goo.gl/D1NiroTZXNjpXkEA6
Click to expand...
There is a difference between a "quantum leap" which is an expression, and quantum in the scientific sense which is technology that is so small that newtonian physics breaks.
Toyota are not doing anything in the Quantum field at all as far as I can see.

Computers are still the only area where there is actual practical applications being developed (although not much use currently)
 
Gromett said:
There is a difference between a "quantum leap" which is an expression, and quantum in the scientific sense which is technology that is so small that newtonian physics breaks.
Toyota are not doing anything in the Quantum field at all as far as I can see.

Computers are still the only area where there is actual practical applications being developed (although not much use currently)
Click to expand...
The Toyota Quantum is a HiAce - like product.

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Watch this space. In ten years Lithium batteries will be old hat, but probably not much quicker for a viable cost:benefit for the leisure market.

I’ve posted on this before; an ex work colleague (pretty good friend) in ‘the valley’ who works for a very successful Venture Capital company has over the last few years been telling me about some of the battery technology companies he is leading the work with and they are funding.

There is some mind blowing battery tech out there! They have two 2nd/3rd round invested companies which have batteries with a 4-7 X multiplier on battery density(compare to Li) in late stage dev and testing. Some of the longer burn plays are mind blowing amounts of energy density.

All these battery technologies present some significant commercialisation challenges and some conflict as they erode some of the ROI in other areas this VC is invested.
 
Carpmart said:
Watch this space. In ten years Lithium batteries will be old hat, but probably not much quicker for a viable cost:benefit for the leisure market.

I’ve posted on this before; an ex work colleague (pretty good friend) in ‘the valley’ who works for a very successful Venture Capital company has over the last few years been telling me about some of the battery technology companies he is leading the work with and they are funding.

There is some mind blowing battery tech out there! They have two 2nd/3rd round invested companies which have batteries with a 4-7 X multiplier on battery density(compare to Li) in late stage dev and testing. Some of the longer burn plays are mind blowing amounts of energy density.

All these battery technologies present some significant commercialisation challenges and some conflict as they erode some of the ROI in other areas this VC is invested.
Click to expand...
I do like a bit of positivity! (y) as I said in the original post "interesting times ahead"

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Carpmart said:
Watch this space. In ten years Lithium batteries will be old hat, but probably not much quicker for a viable cost:benefit for the leisure market.

I’ve posted on this before; an ex work colleague (pretty good friend) in ‘the valley’ who works for a very successful Venture Capital company has over the last few years been telling me about some of the battery technology companies he is leading the work with and they are funding.

There is some mind blowing battery tech out there! They have two 2nd/3rd round invested companies which have batteries with a 4-7 X multiplier on battery density(compare to Li) in late stage dev and testing. Some of the longer burn plays are mind blowing amounts of energy density.

All these battery technologies present some significant commercialisation challenges and some conflict as they erode some of the ROI in other areas this VC is invested.
Click to expand...
There are a couple of issues here. I have been following battery tech for at least 19 years now if not longer. I have regularly seen "new developments" that will change the face of batteries. Not a single one of them has come to fruition.
All we have seen is a constant drip drip drip of small improvements that cumulatively have been amazing. Since the move from NiMH chemistry to Li chemistry there has been no major single step or new tech.

But lets imagine a university or development company discovers/develops a new technology. This has happened. The biggest step and blockage to mass market availability is the production process. A few technologies have looked amazing until they tried to make them in quantity. This is where they failed.

The next big thing will either be solid state (solid electrolyte vs liquid) or it will be Sodium batteries. The former has been in development for decades and no one has succeeded in getting into volume production yet. although I still think this is likely.
The Sodium cells I am not convinced about for cars. I just don't think that they will ever get the required volumetric energy density and I am not optimistic that the prices will fall to the point where it makes sense to swap out LiFePO4 for instance.
 
Carpmart said:
Watch this space. In ten years Lithium batteries will be old hat, but probably not much quicker for a viable cost:benefit for the leisure market.

I’ve posted on this before; an ex work colleague (pretty good friend) in ‘the valley’ who works for a very successful Venture Capital company has over the last few years been telling me about some of the battery technology companies he is leading the work with and they are funding.

There is some mind blowing battery tech out there! They have two 2nd/3rd round invested companies which have batteries with a 4-7 X multiplier on battery density(compare to Li) in late stage dev and testing. Some of the longer burn plays are mind blowing amounts of energy density.

All these battery technologies present some significant commercialisation challenges and some conflict as they erode some of the ROI in other areas this VC is invested.
Click to expand...

Higher energy density involving chemical reactions when rapid charging and discharging batteries, means correspondingly higher safety risks as well, so I hope they are on top of that intrinsic problem when it gets out of the lab and into production.
 
Gromett said:
There are a couple of issues here. I have been following battery tech for at least 19 years now if not longer. I have regularly seen "new developments" that will change the face of batteries. Not a single one of them has come to fruition.
All we have seen is a constant drip drip drip of small improvements that cumulatively have been amazing. Since the move from NiMH chemistry to Li chemistry there has been no major single step or new tech.

But lets imagine a university or development company discovers/develops a new technology. This has happened. The biggest step and blockage to mass market availability is the production process. A few technologies have looked amazing until they tried to make them in quantity. This is where they failed.

The next big thing will either be solid state (solid electrolyte vs liquid) or it will be Sodium batteries. The former has been in development for decades and no one has succeeded in getting into volume production yet. although I still think this is likely.
The Sodium cells I am not convinced about for cars. I just don't think that they will ever get the required volumetric energy density and I am not optimistic that the prices will fall to the point where it makes sense to swap out LiFePO4 for instance.
Click to expand...

We only know what we know Carl. 😉

You’re talking about the tech, I’m talking about the money! 🙃

What I know is VC’s do not chuck money away on investments that are too longer shots.. They are second and third round funded with two different opportunities….. They would have bailed before second round if they didn’t have decent probability of success… ✔️

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SpeedyDux said:
Higher energy density involving chemical reactions when rapid charging and discharging batteries, means correspondingly higher safety risks as well, so I hope they are on top of that intrinsic problem when it gets out of the lab and into production.
Click to expand...

Indeed. Technology is one thing, packaging the tech in a ways that can be marketed at scale, monetised and doesn’t kill customers is harder.

As I’ve said, this VC is a cut throat group of barstewards and they are investing very big! Must be something in it… 👍🏻
 
Carpmart said:
What I know is VC’s do not chuck money away on investments that are too longer shots.. They are second and third round funded with two different opportunities….. They would have bailed before second round if they didn’t have decent probability of success… ✔️
Click to expand...
I have been involved in a few VC ventures and the money was indeed thrown around. One in particular got millions from 3i and ended up with nothing to show for it. I dropped out of the company (Tech director) because I realised it was heading nowhere and my own personal venture was more likely to succeed. Surprisingly getting 1st and 2nd round funding is not too difficult in hot areas. The venture capitalists know it is a numbers game. Invest in 20 and hope for 1 to be a massive success.
We had people on staff who were employed purely because they knew how to present to VC investors and what they were looking for. These staff members had no idea about the actual tech or the real business just how to sell to the VC's. They did an excellent job and were worth the money.

Anyway, neither of us can prove one way or another. I would just point at the running record on battery tech so far.
 
SpeedyDux said:
Higher energy density involving chemical reactions when rapid charging and discharging batteries, means correspondingly higher safety risks as well, so I hope they are on top of that intrinsic problem when it gets out of the lab and into production.
Click to expand...

Batteries have some way to go to match the energy density of LPG and we all seem relatively happy to use that.

Ian
 
The only alternative to existing Lifepo4 in the near future I can only see a lifepo4 with graphene separators, or a LTO with same graphene. The manufacturing of these cells have gained some experience already, and some high end lifepo4 can actualy reach 20C rate. This breed will be seen in EV in the next years.
The sodium, as Gromett said, will probably find a good use on stationary storage. The solid state may never be mass produced for large applications, it may show its head in small devices, as currently the prototypes never made it past milimiters size.
Oh, and there will be no fires.

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Imagine how quick the oil companies will aquire the rights to the designs and Bury them, to protect their own interests!
 
"What I know is VC’s do not chuck money away on investments that are too longer shots.."

Hmmm . . . . tell that to the people that invested in FTX or Theranus. Seems the trick is (as per usual in the world of IT and start-ups generally) to convincingly promise the moon on a stick and hope to create enough momentum to then rely on fear of missing out on the next big thing to bring the money in.
 
bigtwin said:
Batteries have some way to go to match the energy density of LPG and we all seem relatively happy to use that.

Ian
Click to expand...

When you release pressurised LPG via a small nozzle the gas actually cools rapidly. This is how fridges and AC works. Basic physics. Big difference.
 
TDub49 said:
"What I know is VC’s do not chuck money away on investments that are too longer shots.."

Hmmm . . . . tell that to the people that invested in FTX or Theranus. Seems the trick is (as per usual in the world of IT and start-ups generally) to convincingly promise the moon on a stick and hope to create enough momentum to then rely on fear of missing out on the next big thing to bring the money in.
Click to expand...

VCs operate on the principle that out of 5 new investments, on average within 5 years 2 will go bust, 2 will "wash their face" financially, and hopefully one will provide stellar investment returns.
 
Gromett said:
If they are discussing a real world product and using quantum in the description it is hokum at least for now. Anything Quantum is theoretical at best currently.
Click to expand...
Well... not entirely true. Quantum Cryptography has been around for years, and a handful of companies are shipping working commercial systems. I've also spent several years developing one of them. The Chinese even have a satellite-to-ground system. It's provably secure, barring engineering failures, unlike classical systems. Some electronic components are also explicitly designed to use quantum effects - Zener diodes and tunnelling are the obvious example. There are a lot of Quantum Computers around, but my understanding is that none of them have reached 'supremacy', ie. being faster than a classical computer in any practical application. Programming them to do anything useful, and making sure that they run error-free, are both incredibly difficult. If you're interested, you can actually try this out online. IBM used to have a way to let you run a 'program' on their kit, but I haven't looked at this in a while.

On VC, as I expect you know, the deal is that you pump money into 20 companies, one of them makes it big, and then funds your losses on the other 19. The overall return is pretty limited unless you luck out on a Google. The problem in this country is finding people who've got the vision and the balls to do it.

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