Does This Hydrogen-Powered Road Trip Show possibility of Clean Camping Potential? (2 Viewers)

[L' Hobo]

Yes, I am an not only a believer, I'm actually an invester and co-owner in 2 wind co-operative farms. So far the one that is producing (the second one had first production yesterday) has produced EXACTLY the amount the wind predictions month on month it should have. For 2 entire years. It's actually slightly above average prediction at moment as April was such a windy month it's actually hit figures that were "beyond" 150% of the predicted winds for April.

If anything the actual evidence from the farm I own that is producing is wind is actually VERY reliable, and VERY predictable. I will eat my words if the second farm in Scotland (first was in Wales) doesn't produce to expectations over next 12 months. I'm more than happy to share graphs against production expectations with you, but I doubt you will believe actual evidence from an actual wind farm owner.

Your, of course, right, I won't believe graphics because A, one can find any evidence one wants on the Internet and B, predictable wind in England sounds to me like a oxymoron.
(I think you are very wise to have a wind farm in Scotland, especially Orkney & Shetland)

As I said in an earlier post, the only people really happy about Wind Farms are the investors of companies receiving Government subsidised money from the Green fund.

I think with your ownership, I rest my case.

 

[Coolcats]

Christ, I wonder if the 6m site spacing will need evolving to a few hundred metres with that kind of pressure.
700 bar is ludicrious -> a leak (and ignition from someone using lpg) there will likely take out an entire campsite.

But I think the pricing is what makes it questionable 440 euro for the fuel for 1100 km so 40 euro cents a km .... about double diesel at the rates at the pumps in Germany today (for Hydrogen, it's 15.75 nationwide at moment as mentioned).

The price at pumps today is not what it can be tomorrow with production costs currently between £3-£8 per kilo, if you only has a few petrol pumps the cost of petrol would equally be high. You also have to consider any influence from the EV sector pushing Hydrogen costs at the pump up.

Regarding Dangerous Hydrogen compared to petrol, here is a leak from both :....

 

[Gromett]

Regarding Dangerous Hydrogen compared to petrol, here is a leak from both :....

That is a BS video deliberately misleading.

The gasoline is allowed to dribble out underneath. The hydrogen is deliberately piped and vented out the top of the boot.

In a real hydrogen car, the tanks are underneath and below the passenger compartment so a slow leak may rise into the cab area and eventually build up. If/when it then goes pop it would be like a pipebomb. Something that is incredibly hard/rare for petrol to do.
Real hydrogen cars do not have a vent pipe on the top of the boot as far as I am aware?

Also. without a source of ignition. That hydrogen in many scenarios could build up and cause a big, big bang. Think underground garages, tunnels. Home garages etc.

 

[starquake]

Your, of course, right, I won't believe graphics because A, one can find any evidence one wants on the Internet and B, predictable wind in England sounds to me like a oxymoron.
(I think you are very wise to have a wind farm in Scotland, especially Orkney & Shetland)

As I said in an earlier post, the only people really happy about Wind Farms are the investors of companies receiving Government subsidised money from the Green fund.

I think with your ownership, I rest my case.

Unforuntatly we get ZERO from the Green fund for either construction, or operation (that only really happens for farms built through the auction/guaranteed CFD schemes). It's an entirely privately funded owned by the co-op members set of farms, about 12.5MW in total. (the next farm planned is 40MW). I can assure you we receive NOTHING from the Green fund or ANY government form of subsidy, other than the payments for when the grid tells us to turn off production beccause they can't handle our generation due to overproduction (which all wind farms receive), which on topic is the same excess wind they say SHOULD be used for Hydrogen production. Would rather defeat the point of the thing otherwise (and many of us were investers well before any of the recent price history for reference, I signed up in ~2019)..

There was talk of us going for a CFD (which is the only subisidy available) on the latest farm, was voted out by the members one month ago. So we don't even have a CFD subsidy. The point of the farms for the 8000 members is to stablise members own electricity usage from any future price spike, not to make profit (effectively a price cap that we have paid for entirely seperate from the "price cap"). We sell the energy on the normal wholesale market without any subsidy applied (or Green credits). Each member owns their own "domestic" usage only in effect (Or busines usage if a business is a member). Our farm (the Scottish one) is north west of Glasgow as it goes, so unlikely to suffer the same lulls as wind farms on east of england.

Onshore wind is both cheap and reliable is my point, and as an owner of a sizeable interest I do want to see where this negative data exists as it exists in no wind farm I've either invested in, or have investigated in last 10 years (and I get access to the live turbine data). Theres a lot of bad data flying in the press about unreliability of wind, but it's at total odds with National Grid, and actual wind farm data, and it's usually from people who when you check are being paid by fossil fuel companys when you check who is paying.

As you say the Internet says a lot of things, but you are aware during April the wind share of the grid was over 50% of ALL generation on more than a few days? (with coal, gas combined being under 3% of all generation on several days - the grid was quite close to the 0 carbon day they are predicting for the next 2 years to occur for first time). (https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/04/24/fossil-fuel-share-in-british-electricity-dips-to-2-4/). It's notable that year on year the grid report less use of gas and coal due to this increase in reliable renewables.

The price at pumps today is not what it can be tomorrow with production costs currently between £3-£8 per kilo, if you only has a few petrol pumps the cost of petrol would equally be high. You also have to consider any influence from the EV sector pushing Hydrogen costs at the pump up.

Regarding Dangerous Hydrogen compared to petrol, here is a leak from both :....

The point being the pumps in Germany offering at 15e uro 75 are also heavily subsidised - I think the numbers we've seen on this are in the billions of euros so far - its thosands of euro per vehicle using the German pump network (also the largest in EU). The cost of production is never cost of retail, as otherwise petrol at the pumps would be in region of 20p (as I think we know in UK petrol retail has a 2-3p margin at best) - the rest is tax.... Also remember in the largest non subsidised market in California the retail price is currently $36 USD. I have severe doubts with the amount of compression required at the actual pumps (you understand that it uses a lot of additional electricity to run these pumps) to pressurise to the ridiculous psi required that it can be close to the production cost, as you also have to pay (a substanitial amount) for the compression, and cooling and heating requirements (H2 needs both cooling and heating as part of the delivery) to get the gas from the tanks into the vehicle .... this is NOTHING like Petrol.

I don't think there stands a chance of Hydrogen price reducing right now, if anything it's going to increase as they have to cut back on subsidys, as the retailers have to be allowed to sell Hydrogen profitably without subsidy to prove the market. Particilarly more so if they add any taxes onto electricity for the EV people. I think there is zero chance with it lowering with volume, this breaks a basic law of economics as if demand increases, usually price also increases. I hate to bet against a 100 year rule here.

The answer to cheap H2 however could be if Hydrogen production can be build alongside grid network points where there is contention and wind overproduction causing wind to be in such excess it would otherwise be turned off (worth noting there was substantially excess production across Europe today). This occurs about 3-4 times a month at moment, but only represents a relatively small amount of GW today, meaning a realitively small amount of Hydrogen. Where we agree I think is if there is a lot more wind, and a lot more excess capacity at peaks therefore, this could be significant, and effectively "free" to produce. Key point though, it would still not be free to retail to customers, as the substantial energy in both shipment (to pump) and local delivery (from pump) to vehicels could not be free, and that would likely still result in a reaonably high cost to customers. Effectively without excess wind, I have doubts the H2 economy is at all viable. With it, H2 prices could actually soak excess demand, be paid for it, and use those payments to cover part of the delivery/retail chain, making the pump price palatable. The big issue however here is EV customers using same electricity to charge vehicles on the same peaks will also soak the cheap electricity if in right locations. After many years of demand decline, electricity demand is predicted to increase due to EV's in a year or two.

 

[starquake]

That is a BS video deliberately misleading.

Also. without a source of ignition. That hydrogen in many scenarios could build up and cause a big, big bang. Think underground garages, tunnels. Home garages etc.

Think what happens with natural gas under buildings already (and the explosion radius) if you doubting us here.

Hydrogen is worse than natural gas in it's explodability, so if such an explosion happens it would take out more than the house involved in many cases. I suspect no underground carpark will be avialable to any H2 vehicle after the first incident. Like Gromett I have no question on it happening, it's a question of when now the H2 vehicles are starting to appear. It's an incredibly hard gas to avoid leaks on for numerous reasons... And as mentioned no smelly additive can be added at present as it woudl break the fuel cells.

Doesn't everyone remember high school chemistry and the hydrogen oxygen mix tests?

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[Mzracer]

this breaks a basic law of economics as if demand increases, usually price also increases.

I have been telling you that for weeks about electricity prices but but !!

 

[Mzracer]

Think what happens with natural gas under buildings already (and the explosion radius) if you doubting us here.

Hydrogen is worse than natural gas in it's explodability, so if such an explosion happens it would take out more than the house involved in many cases. I suspect no underground carpark will be avialable to any H2 vehicle after the first incident. Like Gromett I have no question on it happening, it's a question of when now the H2 vehicles are starting to appear. It's an incredibly hard gas to avoid leaks on for numerous reasons... And as mentioned no smelly additive can be added at present as it woudl break the fuel cells.

Doesn't everyone remember high school chemistry and the hydrogen oxygen mix tests?

Nothing like as frightening as petrol !!

I have done a lot of work around Hydrogen as it is a pre requisite material if you are generating really large amounts of electricity (500Mw generators and plenty of them) with turbines and if treated with respect it is safe.

I have seen a hydrogen store on fire, a pipe fractured in the winter, it was not particularly frightening, I have seen a lot worse fires.

 

[starquake]

I have been telling you that for weeks about electricity prices but but !!

There is a difference though at moment electricity is reducing, and it has previously been able to deal with the load of all the (future) EV's (load in only year 2000 let along 1990 was enough, back then we had near 20GW more generation).. It's not like there is investment required in that case as the grid itself is build for peak demands.

You are correct however on the heat pump front, that IS a substatial higher load on the grid than EV's (domestic heat). I have my doubts this will be palatable to customers, as teh ramp up of heat pumps is nowhere near the scale of EV's (YET). I have my doubts personally on it, but one of my friends still lives in a Heatpump house in suffolk and is happy with iit.

I think the more intesting point on electricity and cars that makes the demand equation different is unlike petrol and diesel as we all know from motorhomes, it's near trivial to self-produce enough electricity via Solar for an EV these days and chargers to use such capacity are also relatively cheap (a Zappi which can do this is not really more than one that can't). I think a few of us here have solar and EV's -> I'm not one as I need to move out of this place within 5 years so it's a waste of investment. I would wager a reasonable amount of EV owners today plan this.

I do conceed that other elements of the electricity market apply here though -> when supply exceeds demand prices fall... which is why near all of Europe, minus Spain (which was 0p) and Portugal (0.5p) were negative this morning. Only UK today had electricity prices in positive, which is why UK was importing a lot of "free" German and Netherlands electricity.

If we do get a supply shortage from heat pumps + EV's ... you are spot on Mzracer ... I have my doubts on this.

 

[Mzracer]

There is a difference though at moment electricity is reducing, and it has previously been able to deal with the load of all the (future) EV's (load in only year 2000 let along 1990 was enough, back then we had near 20GW more generation).. It's not like there is investment required in that case as the grid itself is build for peak demands.

You are correct however on the heat pump front, that IS a substatial higher load on the grid than EV's (domestic heat). I have my doubts this will be palatable to customers, as teh ramp up of heat pumps is nowhere near the scale of EV's (YET). I have my doubts personally on it, but one of my friends still lives in a Heatpump house in suffolk and is happy with iit.

I think the more intesting point on electricity and cars that makes the demand equation different is unlike petrol and diesel as we all know from motorhomes, it's near trivial to self-produce enough electricity via Solar for an EV these days and chargers to use such capacity are also relatively cheap (a Zappi which can do this is not really more than one that can't). I think a few of us here have solar and EV's -> I'm not one as I need to move out of this place within 5 years so it's a waste of investment. I would wager a reasonable amount of EV owners today plan this.

I do conceed that other elements of the electricity market apply here though -> when supply exceeds demand prices fall... which is why near all of Europe, minus Spain (which was 0p) and Portugal (0.5p) were negative this morning. Only UK today had electricity prices in positive, which is why UK was importing a lot of "free" German and Netherlands electricity.

If we do get a supply shortage from heat pumps + EV's ... you are spot on Mzracer ... I have my doubts on this.

I just cannot get over the Nirvana of getting just about free electricity, sounds like the 1950's when they said that electricity from Nuclear power stations would be free.

 

[starquake]

I just cannot get over the Nirvana of getting just about free electricity, sounds like the 1950's when they said that electricity from Nuclear power stations would be free.

It's becuase Wind is variablle in summary. My turbine of 2.5MW, the production graph each motnh has about (usaully) 10 days of near 100% capacity production. At that times there is surplus, as they've sold grid the "average per day" which won't be 100%. It's all on percentage likelyhood, and for example this April as a whole if my numbers are right I expect we'll see we have exceeded a level of production that in likleyhood to happen was "extremely unlikely", ditto there is a min production level which we will exceed in 95% of the time. They base selling capacity to grid on the "average" when you pay up front, not the peak. So effectively during peaks the energy has to be taken away as the energy company that owns the capacity doesn't have the demand for it. Ditto they have to pay (balancing this is called) when production is lower than this average. However you usually are 95% certain that most months you will make that average so we are talking ~ 5% of time they need to pay balancing. THis month in actual units I don't have the numbers yet, but I expect my share has produced over 1000kwh on the turbine, when per month on average I'm usually expecting a minimum of 400kwh, and a average of ~ 500.

The 500 is effetcively what Octopus have paid for, but they need to get rid of that again due to the overproduction, so ... paying people to take it is better than paying a competitior to use for their customers. The issue is if that supplier also has excess, it becomes a pay the farm to turn off (which costs more than the electric) or find someone I can pay to take it for less than the turn off payment.

Thats a simplified view of how it works, but I suspect Octopus have a very good reason for wanting to be the #1 supplier to EV's and it is quite simple, its so they can offer to charge EV's extremely cheap when they have excess wind, which in turn lowers their own costs. It's that simple, as otherwise it's paying a Hydrogen producer or a Rival company to use the same electricity unless thats more expensive than turning off the farm... I suspect the OVO (who have SSE contracted wind farms) retailer is in same position as they have a lot of contracted wind too.

Remember most farms have "ALL" their production prepurchased by PPA's to retail usually on fixed terms for 6 to 12 months (sometimes Longer, I saw a large retailer just signed a 25 year deal). (Sometimes with a min price contract, sometimes not).

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[starquake]

I just cannot get over the Nirvana of getting just about free electricity, sounds like the 1950's when they said that electricity from Nuclear power stations would be free.

Back then of course it was a thinly disguised production plant for nuclear fissile material for military purposes of course.
The electricity was effectively a byproduct.

Only once they started doing AGM's did the primary purpose become actual electricirty.

 

[Coolcats]

Nothing like as frightening as petrol !!

I have done a lot of work around Hydrogen as it is a pre requisite material if you are generating really large amounts of electricity (500Mw generators and plenty of them) with turbines and if treated with respect it is safe.

I have seen a hydrogen store on fire, a pipe fractured in the winter, it was not particularly frightening, I have seen a lot worse fires.

I think a lot of the concern about Hydrogen is the Hindenburg disaster that seems to fan the flames of doom rather than what has gone on in developing safe Hydrogen solutions. All stored energy can cause devastating damage Buncefield explosion is an example. Let alone EV’s including E-Bikes and E- Scooters

 

[Coolcats]

Think what happens with natural gas under buildings already (and the explosion radius) if you doubting us here.

Hydrogen is worse than natural gas in it's explodability, so if such an explosion happens it would take out more than the house involved in many cases. I suspect no underground carpark will be avialable to any H2 vehicle after the first incident. Like Gromett I have no question on it happening, it's a question of when now the H2 vehicles are starting to appear. It's an incredibly hard gas to avoid leaks on for numerous reasons... And as mentioned no smelly additive can be added at present as it woudl break the fuel cells.

Doesn't everyone remember high school chemistry and the hydrogen oxygen mix tests?

I have produced Hydrogen (small amounts I may add) at home from a solar panel and there has been no explosion ! You bring Fear and panic. yet the big boys such as JCB who will use Hydrogen have not qualms about bringing it in to use.

 

[starquake]

I have produced Hydrogen (small amounts I may add) at home from a solar panel and there has been no explosion ! You bring Fear and panic. yet the big boys such as JCB who will use Hydrogen have not qualms about bringing it in to use.

I believe the Hindenburg was well supported too and look what happened to that - it’s a similar view half a decade on. I worry about physics not companies take on them. Being in risk management I can guess someone has scored the risk of eplosion to an acceptable risk. Gases at that kind of pressure are a huge risk and I suspect the leak risks are understated and maybe underrated by the risk management.

 

[Mzracer]

I suspect the leak risks are understated and maybe underrated by the risk management.

What in any way qualifies you to make such a statement?

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[starquake]

What in any way qualifies you to make such a statement?

Well I've worked in risk management for years, and have seen many of the companies I have worked for underrate quite critial risks due to likihood being low. This doesn't mean it won't happen, it's just "so unlikely" they rule it out until it inevitably happens a year or two later in the IT risk world.

As said, my opinon, not expert opinion is the above -> we will see in a few years whether it proves true or not. I'm not saying Hydrogen will not happen, I'm saying at moment it looks incredibly expensive, and risky in my eyes at least. People can pay more than diesel, it's their choice and I won't take that away. However I do expect Hydrogen vehicle parking to be restricted in underground and similar carparks but again I could be wrong. If more than JCB was in the Hydrogen ICE market I would be more resassured, but given their major trucking rivals are going down the fuel cell route (which is proven) I suspect that will be the outcome. I have less complaints about a non combustion engine as there is no source of "ignition".

I may even buy an H2 vehicle if the costs come down, but taking the american price, this caravan would be $1008 for 1100 km, ie, near $1 a km, on current US hydrogen prices, in the largest hydrogen economy in the world. Thats a luxury product!

 

[Mzracer]

Well I've worked in risk management for years, and have seen many of the companies I have worked for underrate quite critial risks due to likihood being low. This doesn't mean it won't happen, it's just "so unlikely" they rule it out until it inevitably happens a year or two later in the IT risk world.

As said, my opinon, not expert opinion is the above -> we will see in a few years whether it proves true or not. I'm not saying Hydrogen will not happen, I'm saying at moment it looks incredibly expensive, and risky in my eyes at least. People can pay more than diesel, it's their choice and I won't take that away. However I do expect Hydrogen vehicle parking to be restricted in underground and similar carparks but again I could be wrong. If more than JCB was in the Hydrogen ICE market I would be more resassured, but given their major trucking rivals are going down the fuel cell route (which is proven) I suspect that will be the outcome. I have less complaints about a non combustion engine as there is no source of "ignition".

I may even buy an H2 vehicle if the costs come down, but taking the american price, this caravan would be $1008 for 1100 km, ie, near $1 a km, on current US hydrogen prices, in the largest hydrogen economy in the world. Thats a luxury product!

OK thanks for the explanation.

Building owners can be very protective of property particulary in covered parking areas, this is at Southampton Spire Hospital and when I asked about the sign, it is purely based on the fear of an EV fire.

Hydrogen will be treated in a similar way.

 

[Coolcats]

Being in risk management I can guess someone has scored the risk of eplosion to an acceptable risk......I suspect the leak risks are understated and maybe underrated by the risk management.

Maybe overstated by some risk managers ?

 

[gus-lopez]

hat hydrogen in many scenarios could build up and cause a big, big bang. Think underground garages, tunnels. Home garages etc.

& that scenario is exactly why no lpg vehicles are allowed in any type of underground parking in spain, whether private or public

 

[Mzracer]

& that scenario is exactly why no lpg vehicles are allowed in any type of underground parking in spain, whether private or public

Remember in Spain they have had some huge LPG fires, there was one back in the 70's where the LPG got into a sewer and the explosion was huge.

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