UK Blackout story

[Gromett]

Just saying in case anyone here lives there to keep your batteries charged on any cold day next month.

The article states there is no immediate threat.

But it also says this;

So there would be a warning as Milliband takes that trip very red faced. If he isn't sacked before hand for causing it.

I also read that the power cuts would be rolling with each area affected for a maximum of 3 hours.

 

[starquake]

I also read that the power cuts would be rolling with each area affected for a maximum of 3 hours.

Yes, in practise which area you are for power cuts is actually on your billl - unsurprisingly the plans for outages are already planned for (it's called grid area I believe, and is a letter, so A will be our in X region etc). However the initial brownout would be unplanned and one region would take the brunt in load control. Birmingham is a fair choice (it woudnt be London in choice as London uses so much power it's more of a problem balancing the grid when you remove 6-7GW of demand (which is London). You need a region with 1-2GW, ie, in line with what a power station geneates. A small city like Southampton is 100-200MW, so not enough -> I totally agree with their view on this that Birmingham is of sufficient size to be of use quickly in such a situation as it's in between being too small to be useful, and too large to cause a major post-event balance.

The key point is that happens after rolling blackouts approved in effect - Before that one region has to take the brunt until Milliband goes cap in hand to the King (likely same day).

I think there is still a non-zero chance of that happening in the next few years, I'm not 100% that it will happen as it depends on weather, combined with low wind, combined with very cold temperatures all occurring over a 2-3 day period -> and wider than just UK (as we can likely import otherwise). If you check the power markets last week in Germany you will find the reason teh UK was not importing as much as usual and was in export mode to Netherlands was our Excess, and France (which we normally buy from) were actually going to Germany. We were actually running our power plants just as hard as Jan 8th last week for most of week, but the difference is the termperatures were lower so we didn't need 6GW of import.

The LOLP probability figure calculated I have been monitoring for many many years (now handily on elexon and on https://enact.lcp.energy ) -> and honestly in zero previous times has it been as high as on Jan 8th at point of delivery. You get high LOLP as mentioned the day before regularly along with the CMN notices, however both get cancelled usually 4 hours before at latest as the market responds with confirmed capacity. The key point is on Jan 8th the market did not respond. The more serious EMN (which are not automatically generated) also was triggerred on Jan 8th. Key point here is a EMN does not mean blackouts, but it does mean the strongest signal to market their is in fact a concern about capacity in the control room. I honestly can't remember the last time a EMN was issued, as you say CMN's are automatically issued most winters, and are not as much for a concern.

To me this still smells of cover-up, simply because what we're being told does not add up (feel free to do analysis yourself, all the data is on the elexon portal). If we did have 1400MW of margin as is alleged which power plants added up that were not generating and were available (and takign avialbility payments, which is on elexon) to do it? The only ones I can find are diesel plant, and not enough for this ! I note the word from the government again simply say there was capacity without naming it. If it existed, and was being paid, it should be on elexon.

(previous years with higher LOLP it wasn't as much of an issue, as you could see the backup plant -> hence why the similar days of congestion in 2023, and 2022 didn't cause articles and questions in parliamnet). Milliband as ESO chair needs to name the plant or admit we were within a single power plant failing of a brownout.

Should add the risk goes down in future years, there are some OCGT plant being built at moment in fact (I think there is 500MW in Diss up road from me, that's due to complete shortly). If the Diss plant had been finished the 500MW available there would have masively helped a week ago alone. Sorry my mistake it's 300MW -> plans on https://www.drax.com/about-us/progress-power/#key-documents

(it's called progress power and is a peaker plant precisely for low-margin periods).

 

[Gromett]

The more serious EMN (which are not automatically generated) also was triggerred on Jan 8th. Key point here is a EMN does not mean blackouts, but it does mean the strongest signal to market their is in fact a concern about capacity in the control room. I honestly can't remember the last time a EMN was issued, as you say CMN's are automatically issued most winters, and are not as much for a concern.

Neither EMN or CMN mean we don't have generating capacity. It is that there is not enough contracted capacity active. You already know this obviously. But others may not, so I will add this for context and clarify for those who don't.

We have enough generating capacity in this country even with individual generator outages. It is just that a chunk of it is not turned on and ready to produce unless contracted to do so.

This is obvious when you think about it. We have to have enough capacity to cover peak usage times. For instance last night at around 18:30 we had a peak demand of 41GW. But then at around 05:00 this morning demand was at 25GW.
This means that there was 15GW difference. That 15GW means that at least that much generating capacity was turned off or interconnect capacity not being used.

When a CMN (automatic) or EMN (manual) is issued the generators bid on contracts to turn on and supply a set amount of capacity. Neither CMN or EMN means we do not have the generating capacity, it simply means that demand has exceed the predicted levels and is cutting into the active generator reserves. So the grid operator asks for more of the available generating capacity be wound up, turned on and made available to the grid.

I do not worry about CMN or EMN for this reason as it is part of the normal operation of the grid.

 

[DandJ]

We have enough generating capacity in this country even with individual generator outages. It is just that a chunk of it is not turned on and ready to produce unless contracted to do so.

This is obvious when you think about it. We have to have enough capacity to cover peak usage times. For instance last night at around 18:30 we had a peak demand of 41GW. But then at around 05:00 this morning demand was at 25GW.
This means that there was 15GW difference. That 15GW means that at least that much generating capacity was turned off or interconnect capacity not being used.

What is the UKs actual generating capacity...taking out wind and solar ?

 

[Gromett]

What is the UKs actual generating capacity...taking out wind and solar ?

According to this from 2023.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66a7da1bce1fd0da7b592f0a/DUKES_2024_Chapter_5.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

We have 74.8 GW of de-rated generating capacity in the uk. There was 25.6GW of renewables (But that include hydro and bio energy etc)
That gives you 49.2GW of non renewable generating capacity. Not sure which category Nuclear comes under.

But then you add on interconnects which are not classed as generating capacity and we have more than enough.

Clear cut figures to answer your question would take more digging than I have time for right now. I am on a deadline for tomorrow for work sorry.


What does the de-rated term?

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[DandJ]

Thanks, I'd read that and figured that nuclear came in with 49.2GW non renewables....fossil fuel being 40.5GW. But then I read the following which clearly puts nuclear as a renewable.

How much of the UK’s energy is renewable? | National Grid Group

Renewable energy is already part of the different energy sources that make up our electricity supply, but how much are we using currently and how much more will we need in order to reach net zero?

www.nationalgrid.com

I wonder whether, in Milibands rush to keep telling the world how great the UK is, and is consistently reducing it's need for fossil fuelled electricity...that cutting its ability to produce it will hamstring the country should a weather event occur, Europe wide.