Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
$53/KWh explains why you can now get 100Ah for less than £200 retail. There are still suppliers offering them for twice that though.China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts
We no longer need to model for when cell prices drop far enough to decarbonize road transport. That day is here.
Coming to Grips With A Crash
Prices for batteries in China are plummeting, and the implications are just starting to ripple outward for the global automotive market.
Over the last year, the price for lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, battery cells in China has dropped 51% to an average of $53 per kilowatt-hour. The average global price of these batteries last year was $95/kWh.
There are several factors driving prices lower. The first is raw-material prices, which have fallen sharply over the last 18 months. The cathode is where most of the raw-material costs in a battery come from, and the cathode share of total cost for an LFP cell in China has fallen from 50% at the beginning of 2023 to less than 30% this year.
BloombergHyperdriveBeijing Legislates for Robotaxis as Backlash ClimbsHonda to Consolidate Thai Car Plants Amid Electrification PushHyundai Under Pressure From Tata, Mahindra as $3.5 Billion India IPO LoomsStellantis Italy Car Production Slumps in Government Setback
The second driver is overcapacity that’s leading manufacturers to cut prices to maintain market share. China’s battery production is already higher than global EV demand, and that overcapacity problem is set to get worse before it gets better.
Overcapacity tends to lead to competitive shakeouts that shift volume toward the most efficient plants with the newest production technology, while others fall by the wayside. Average capacity utilization of battery plants in China fell from 51% in 2022 to 43% in 2023, and will be lower again this year.
BNEF’s bottom-up battery cost model shows how close average prices are now to estimated manufacturing costs, indicating that margins for vendors are shrinking.
Battery Margins Are Being Squeezed
China cell spot prices and manufacturing costs
View attachment 921126
Note: The cell mentioned here is in prismatic format and excludes taxes. LFP spot price comes from the ICC Battery price database. Estimated cell manufacturing cost is for LFP cells and uses the BNEF BattMan cost model.
Raw material costs, overcapacity and margin compression from manufacturers account for the bulk of what’s going on, but there’s also still significant technology and manufacturing process improvements happening. China’s battery champions CATL and BYD continue to invest heavily in research and development, automation and additional factories, and they’re launching new products at a frenetic pace. All these factors together mean that BloombergNEF’s battery team is expecting low prices to persist for at least the next several years.
These ultra-low battery price have major implications for the automotive and power sectors. Battery cells at $50/kWh means the technology to decarbonize most of road transport globally is already here, as opposed to in some future scenario.
Lithium-ion Battery Prices Are Dropping Fast
View attachment 921127
Note: NMC = Nickel manganese cobalt and includes prices for NMC111, NMC532 and NMC 622 batteries. High-nickel NMC includes NMC811, NMC955 and NCA
Pack-level prices for the most-sold battery chemistries have been below the often-referenced $100/kWh benchmark in China since October 2023, and LFP pack prices are now at $75/kWh. At that price, EVs can be priced at or below combustion cars in most vehicle segments, marking a huge shift. China is the world’s largest auto market, and battery-electric vehicles are currently the cheapest drivetrain by average transaction price in the country, even after stripping out mini city cars from the dataset.
Electric Vehicles Are Cheaper Than Combustion Models In China
View attachment 921128
Source: BloombergNEF, China Automotive Technology and Research Center.
Note: Battery-electric vehicles exclude mini cars.
It will take some time for those prices to be fully reflected outside China, but some of that is already happening. Even today, battery prices across different applications are converging as vendors hunt down new sources of demand. That’s good news for commercial EV manufacturers that typically have paid a significant premium for batteries compared the car market.
Almost two-thirds of EVs available in China are already cheaper than their internal combustion engine equivalents, and many cheaper electric models are planned for launch outside China in 2025 and 2026.
Electric Vehicles Are Cheaper Than Combustion Models In China
View attachment 921129
The stationary energy-storage market may be the biggest beneficiary. Crashing battery prices make the economics of adding large-scale energy storage much more attractive. Prices of turnkey energy storage systems are already down 43% from a year ago, and our team at BNEF is watching for that segment to soak up some of the additional supply. Overcapacity isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but BNEF expects global stationary storage installations to rise to 155 GWh this year, up 61% from last year.
Energy Storage Installations Are Booming
View attachment 921130
Note: 2024 data is BNEF's forecast. Other includes BNEF buffers not explicitly allocated to a specific country or application
All of this underscores how the harbingers of scarcity were wrong, at least so far. Over the last four years, there was a steady drumbeat of predictions that batteries and battery metals would be in short supply indefinitely.
Toyota was among the most prominent companies to voice this view, claiming just last year that there were not enough batteries to go around, and that sharing them between hybrids was a better way to reduce emissions than deploying full electrics. Those claims look very outdated now as battery prices continue to plunge.
$53/KWh explains why you can now get 100Ah for less than £200 retail.
Intriguing. I've had one of their 20Ah batteries (for running a radio) for a few months and it seems to be working perfectly. It replaced a 12Ah battery from RoyPow which did indeed melt due to a poor internal connection.Cheap, but it can buy you a whole lot of hassle too, 58% give a 1 star review!! Is there a company on Trustpilot with worse ratings?
Eco-Worthy is rated "Average" with 3.4 / 5 on Trustpilot
Do you agree with Eco-Worthy's TrustScore? Voice your opinion today and hear what 337 customers have already said.uk.trustpilot.com
fogstar site are showing Eco liesure that are cheaper whats the difference from the DriftThe price certainly will affect leisure batteries as well, maybe not as much as raw cells, but definitely a reduction is coming.
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
Probably the old discounted cells. They need to shift as the v3 cells are coming down as well. That’s a good price for a 300ah.fogstar site are showing Eco liesure that are cheaper whats the difference from the Drift
That is an incredible price.
Envision LiFePO4 305Ah Prismatic Cell (Grade B)
305Ah LiFePO4 cells are ideal for compiling 12v off-grid batteries for solar, campervans and boats. LiFePO4 are generally renowned for being the very best DIY battery for energy storage. UK Stockist. Fast Delivery.www.fogstar.co.uk
£70 for 305Ah Cells.
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
My next normal car will develop 412 Horsepower. Not an EV. Just need to work on the food and grog nowPity we can't have a bit of over capacity on other things, like food, beer, bills, and normal cars
If we are so useless, and could not help British volt to open that factory, serves us right. A gigafactory in Germany will take some of the China competition in Europe. We have Lithium and we have the means to put a factory together, there is no will.Just let none of us whine on about China's carbon emissions ... they are all displaced from here anyway, as everything we buy was made in China ...
There are a few differences between the Eco, Drift and Pro. It's all explained in this blog; https://www.fogstar.co.uk/blogs/fog...t-range-drift-eco-fogstar-drift-and-drift-pro.fogstar site are showing Eco liesure that are cheaper whats the difference from the Drift
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
My grandad’s standard response to anything modern;I would like to know what my grandad would have to say about all this!
I have been banging that drum for a long time on here and no one believes me. Same with population peaking.Won't be long (as I think we predicted here) before China have more Solar and Wind than coal. Chinas growth in renewables is still being drastically underreported over here.
Large scale battery storage to store Solar and Wind is the way.
Subscribers do not see these advertisements
That's a lot of dosh for an 8ah battery.I have a 100watt Epsilon Super B ion Phosphate, looked at price last week over £1500 !!
Yes what I call a overkill, but, I'm told by other Suppliers of other makes that that it's the very top of the makes it's got so much stuff inside , I bought it when I ordered the last disastrous Motorhome through a Main Dealer(s) who are also a disaster!!That's a lot of dosh for an 8ah battery.
By the way it's a 100 ampThat's a lot of dosh for an 8ah battery.
Subscribers do not see these advertisements