LiFePO4 battery prices set to fall rapidly? (1 Viewer)

[Gromett]

 

[Gromett]

The above tweet is a thread. You will need to click on it to view the whole thread with lots of juicy info.

 

[Raul]

I expect a 30-40% reduction in price by late autumn, compared to this year spring prices, reaching us. The wholesale will get it probably at 50%.
I already knew this in early spring. CatL is going to dump allot of cells, they have new LFP at 200-220wh per kg and blade cells already made it to the market. EV's gets the blade design since last year, there is blade cells already on overspill lower grade market to.
EVE already dropped the price on V3 cells

 

[Gromett]

China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts​

We no longer need to model for when cell prices drop far enough to decarbonize road transport. That day is here.

Coming to Grips With A Crash​

Prices for batteries in China are plummeting, and the implications are just starting to ripple outward for the global automotive market.
Over the last year, the price for lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, battery cells in China has dropped 51% to an average of $53 per kilowatt-hour. The average global price of these batteries last year was $95/kWh.
There are several factors driving prices lower. The first is raw-material prices, which have fallen sharply over the last 18 months. The cathode is where most of the raw-material costs in a battery come from, and the cathode share of total cost for an LFP cell in China has fallen from 50% at the beginning of 2023 to less than 30% this year.
BloombergHyperdriveBeijing Legislates for Robotaxis as Backlash ClimbsHonda to Consolidate Thai Car Plants Amid Electrification PushHyundai Under Pressure From Tata, Mahindra as $3.5 Billion India IPO LoomsStellantis Italy Car Production Slumps in Government Setback
The second driver is overcapacity that’s leading manufacturers to cut prices to maintain market share. China’s battery production is already higher than global EV demand, and that overcapacity problem is set to get worse before it gets better.

Overcapacity tends to lead to competitive shakeouts that shift volume toward the most efficient plants with the newest production technology, while others fall by the wayside. Average capacity utilization of battery plants in China fell from 51% in 2022 to 43% in 2023, and will be lower again this year.
BNEF’s bottom-up battery cost model shows how close average prices are now to estimated manufacturing costs, indicating that margins for vendors are shrinking.

Battery Margins Are Being Squeezed​

China cell spot prices and manufacturing costs

Note: The cell mentioned here is in prismatic format and excludes taxes. LFP spot price comes from the ICC Battery price database. Estimated cell manufacturing cost is for LFP cells and uses the BNEF BattMan cost model.
Raw material costs, overcapacity and margin compression from manufacturers account for the bulk of what’s going on, but there’s also still significant technology and manufacturing process improvements happening. China’s battery champions CATL and BYD continue to invest heavily in research and development, automation and additional factories, and they’re launching new products at a frenetic pace. All these factors together mean that BloombergNEF’s battery team is expecting low prices to persist for at least the next several years.
These ultra-low battery price have major implications for the automotive and power sectors. Battery cells at $50/kWh means the technology to decarbonize most of road transport globally is already here, as opposed to in some future scenario.

Lithium-ion Battery Prices Are Dropping Fast​

Note: NMC = Nickel manganese cobalt and includes prices for NMC111, NMC532 and NMC 622 batteries. High-nickel NMC includes NMC811, NMC955 and NCA
Pack-level prices for the most-sold battery chemistries have been below the often-referenced $100/kWh benchmark in China since October 2023, and LFP pack prices are now at $75/kWh. At that price, EVs can be priced at or below combustion cars in most vehicle segments, marking a huge shift. China is the world’s largest auto market, and battery-electric vehicles are currently the cheapest drivetrain by average transaction price in the country, even after stripping out mini city cars from the dataset.

Electric Vehicles Are Cheaper Than Combustion Models In China​

Source: BloombergNEF, China Automotive Technology and Research Center.
Note: Battery-electric vehicles exclude mini cars.
It will take some time for those prices to be fully reflected outside China, but some of that is already happening. Even today, battery prices across different applications are converging as vendors hunt down new sources of demand. That’s good news for commercial EV manufacturers that typically have paid a significant premium for batteries compared the car market.
Almost two-thirds of EVs available in China are already cheaper than their internal combustion engine equivalents, and many cheaper electric models are planned for launch outside China in 2025 and 2026.

Electric Vehicles Are Cheaper Than Combustion Models In China​

The stationary energy-storage market may be the biggest beneficiary. Crashing battery prices make the economics of adding large-scale energy storage much more attractive. Prices of turnkey energy storage systems are already down 43% from a year ago, and our team at BNEF is watching for that segment to soak up some of the additional supply. Overcapacity isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but BNEF expects global stationary storage installations to rise to 155 GWh this year, up 61% from last year.

Energy Storage Installations Are Booming​

Note: 2024 data is BNEF's forecast. Other includes BNEF buffers not explicitly allocated to a specific country or application
All of this underscores how the harbingers of scarcity were wrong, at least so far. Over the last four years, there was a steady drumbeat of predictions that batteries and battery metals would be in short supply indefinitely.
Toyota was among the most prominent companies to voice this view, claiming just last year that there were not enough batteries to go around, and that sharing them between hybrids was a better way to reduce emissions than deploying full electrics. Those claims look very outdated now as battery prices continue to plunge.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Just smiffy]

If that includes lithium leisure batteries then I might be able to afford one finally in the autumn…

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[Raul]

The price certainly will affect leisure batteries as well, maybe not as much as raw cells, but definitely a reduction is coming.

 

[DBK]

China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts​

We no longer need to model for when cell prices drop far enough to decarbonize road transport. That day is here.

Coming to Grips With A Crash​

Prices for batteries in China are plummeting, and the implications are just starting to ripple outward for the global automotive market.
Over the last year, the price for lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, battery cells in China has dropped 51% to an average of $53 per kilowatt-hour. The average global price of these batteries last year was $95/kWh.
There are several factors driving prices lower. The first is raw-material prices, which have fallen sharply over the last 18 months. The cathode is where most of the raw-material costs in a battery come from, and the cathode share of total cost for an LFP cell in China has fallen from 50% at the beginning of 2023 to less than 30% this year.
BloombergHyperdriveBeijing Legislates for Robotaxis as Backlash ClimbsHonda to Consolidate Thai Car Plants Amid Electrification PushHyundai Under Pressure From Tata, Mahindra as $3.5 Billion India IPO LoomsStellantis Italy Car Production Slumps in Government Setback
The second driver is overcapacity that’s leading manufacturers to cut prices to maintain market share. China’s battery production is already higher than global EV demand, and that overcapacity problem is set to get worse before it gets better.

Overcapacity tends to lead to competitive shakeouts that shift volume toward the most efficient plants with the newest production technology, while others fall by the wayside. Average capacity utilization of battery plants in China fell from 51% in 2022 to 43% in 2023, and will be lower again this year.
BNEF’s bottom-up battery cost model shows how close average prices are now to estimated manufacturing costs, indicating that margins for vendors are shrinking.

Battery Margins Are Being Squeezed​

China cell spot prices and manufacturing costs
View attachment 921126

Note: The cell mentioned here is in prismatic format and excludes taxes. LFP spot price comes from the ICC Battery price database. Estimated cell manufacturing cost is for LFP cells and uses the BNEF BattMan cost model.
Raw material costs, overcapacity and margin compression from manufacturers account for the bulk of what’s going on, but there’s also still significant technology and manufacturing process improvements happening. China’s battery champions CATL and BYD continue to invest heavily in research and development, automation and additional factories, and they’re launching new products at a frenetic pace. All these factors together mean that BloombergNEF’s battery team is expecting low prices to persist for at least the next several years.
These ultra-low battery price have major implications for the automotive and power sectors. Battery cells at $50/kWh means the technology to decarbonize most of road transport globally is already here, as opposed to in some future scenario.

Lithium-ion Battery Prices Are Dropping Fast​

View attachment 921127

Note: NMC = Nickel manganese cobalt and includes prices for NMC111, NMC532 and NMC 622 batteries. High-nickel NMC includes NMC811, NMC955 and NCA
Pack-level prices for the most-sold battery chemistries have been below the often-referenced $100/kWh benchmark in China since October 2023, and LFP pack prices are now at $75/kWh. At that price, EVs can be priced at or below combustion cars in most vehicle segments, marking a huge shift. China is the world’s largest auto market, and battery-electric vehicles are currently the cheapest drivetrain by average transaction price in the country, even after stripping out mini city cars from the dataset.

Electric Vehicles Are Cheaper Than Combustion Models In China​

View attachment 921128

Source: BloombergNEF, China Automotive Technology and Research Center.
Note: Battery-electric vehicles exclude mini cars.
It will take some time for those prices to be fully reflected outside China, but some of that is already happening. Even today, battery prices across different applications are converging as vendors hunt down new sources of demand. That’s good news for commercial EV manufacturers that typically have paid a significant premium for batteries compared the car market.
Almost two-thirds of EVs available in China are already cheaper than their internal combustion engine equivalents, and many cheaper electric models are planned for launch outside China in 2025 and 2026.

Electric Vehicles Are Cheaper Than Combustion Models In China​

View attachment 921129
The stationary energy-storage market may be the biggest beneficiary. Crashing battery prices make the economics of adding large-scale energy storage much more attractive. Prices of turnkey energy storage systems are already down 43% from a year ago, and our team at BNEF is watching for that segment to soak up some of the additional supply. Overcapacity isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but BNEF expects global stationary storage installations to rise to 155 GWh this year, up 61% from last year.

Energy Storage Installations Are Booming​

View attachment 921130
Note: 2024 data is BNEF's forecast. Other includes BNEF buffers not explicitly allocated to a specific country or application
All of this underscores how the harbingers of scarcity were wrong, at least so far. Over the last four years, there was a steady drumbeat of predictions that batteries and battery metals would be in short supply indefinitely.
Toyota was among the most prominent companies to voice this view, claiming just last year that there were not enough batteries to go around, and that sharing them between hybrids was a better way to reduce emissions than deploying full electrics. Those claims look very outdated now as battery prices continue to plunge.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

$53/KWh explains why you can now get 100Ah for less than £200 retail. There are still suppliers offering them for twice that though.

12V 100AH Lithium Battery Rechargeable LiFePO4 4000+ Deep Cycle Solar Panel RV | eBay

See all condition definitionsopens in a new window or tab. Solar/Wind Devices. Chemical Composition.

www.ebay.co.uk

 

[Jim]

$53/KWh explains why you can now get 100Ah for less than £200 retail.

Cheap, but it can buy you a whole lot of hassle too, 58% give a 1 star review!! Is there a company on Trustpilot with worse ratings?

eco-worthy is rated "Poor" with 2.6 / 5 on Trustpilot

Do you agree with eco-worthy's TrustScore? Voice your opinion today and hear what 235 customers have already said.

uk.trustpilot.com

 

[DBK]

Cheap, but it can buy you a whole lot of hassle too, 58% give a 1 star review!! Is there a company on Trustpilot with worse ratings?

eco-worthy is rated "Poor" with 2.6 / 5 on Trustpilot

Do you agree with eco-worthy's TrustScore? Voice your opinion today and hear what 235 customers have already said.

uk.trustpilot.com

Intriguing. I've had one of their 20Ah batteries (for running a radio) for a few months and it seems to be working perfectly. It replaced a 12Ah battery from RoyPow which did indeed melt due to a poor internal connection.

I suspect it is still a bit of a cowboy market. Buyer beware as they say.

 

[PeterCarole29]

The price certainly will affect leisure batteries as well, maybe not as much as raw cells, but definitely a reduction is coming.

fogstar site are showing Eco liesure that are cheaper whats the difference from the Drift

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[Raul]

There is a guy in Scotland that dissects batteries, and one of them was eco-worthy. Not like top premium built, but not shabby at all, pretty decent. At that price, is well worth a buy.
The reviews maybe are from other products as well.

 

[Raul]

fogstar site are showing Eco liesure that are cheaper whats the difference from the Drift

Probably the old discounted cells. They need to shift as the v3 cells are coming down as well. That’s a good price for a 300ah.

 

[Gromett]

That is an incredible price.

Envision LiFePO4 305Ah Prismatic Cell (Grade B)

305Ah LiFePO4 cells are ideal for compiling 12v off-grid batteries for solar, campervans and boats. LiFePO4 are generally renowned for being the very best DIY battery for energy storage. UK Stockist. Fast Delivery.

www.fogstar.co.uk

£70 for 305Ah Cells.

 

[Carpmart]

That is an incredible price.

Envision LiFePO4 305Ah Prismatic Cell (Grade B)

305Ah LiFePO4 cells are ideal for compiling 12v off-grid batteries for solar, campervans and boats. LiFePO4 are generally renowned for being the very best DIY battery for energy storage. UK Stockist. Fast Delivery.

www.fogstar.co.uk

£70 for 305Ah Cells.

Agree! 8 of these and a decent BMS will make a very decent 600A+ leisure battery home build.

 

[Richard n Ann]

Pity we can't have a bit of over capacity on other things, like food, beer, bills, and normal cars

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[DuxDeluxe]

Pity we can't have a bit of over capacity on other things, like food, beer, bills, and normal cars

My next normal car will develop 412 Horsepower. Not an EV. Just need to work on the food and grog now

 

[Jerrywh]

Just let none of us whine on about China's carbon emissions ... they are all displaced from here anyway, as everything we buy was made in China ...

 

[Raul]

Just let none of us whine on about China's carbon emissions ... they are all displaced from here anyway, as everything we buy was made in China ...

If we are so useless, and could not help British volt to open that factory, serves us right. A gigafactory in Germany will take some of the China competition in Europe. We have Lithium and we have the means to put a factory together, there is no will.
Let them flow in from China.

 

[steve 6644]

I would like to know what my grandad would have to say about all this!

 

[Bec@Fogstar]

fogstar site are showing Eco liesure that are cheaper whats the difference from the Drift

There are a few differences between the Eco, Drift and Pro. It's all explained in this blog; https://www.fogstar.co.uk/blogs/fog...t-range-drift-eco-fogstar-drift-and-drift-pro.

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[brynric]

I would like to know what my grandad would have to say about all this!

My grandad’s standard response to anything modern;
“It’s too daft to laugh at.”

 

[jerryz]

Milk floats for everyone ....

But seriously this is very interesting news

 

[starquake]

When you combine with the below statistic...



Won't be long (as I think we predicted here) before China have more Solar and Wind than coal. Chinas growth in renewables is still being drastically underreported over here.

Large scale battery storage to store Solar and Wind is the way.

 

[Gromett]

Won't be long (as I think we predicted here) before China have more Solar and Wind than coal. Chinas growth in renewables is still being drastically underreported over here.

Large scale battery storage to store Solar and Wind is the way.

I have been banging that drum for a long time on here and no one believes me. Same with population peaking.

Oh well, eventually people will see


As far back as 2017 I was noticing China's outstanding performance beating it's own ambitious targets (here)
in 2019 I was again pointing this out (here and here.)
To mention just a few, I have constantly brought it up and been shot down.

China will overtake pretty much every significant western nation on the renewables stuff and will make us all look very stupid in the future.
Their target is 2060. But like all previous and current targets I suspect they will beat it handily. Our 2050 target is not that ambitious and we have taken our foot off the pedal. So by 2050 China is likely to be at or close to net zero and we won't be.

 

[Tony50]

I have a 100watt Epsilon Super B ion Phosphate, looked at price last week over £1500 !!

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[Tony50]

Sorry I'm repeating myself!