2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?

[Gromett]

If the risk was only one isolated blackout you might have a good point. I was quite aware of the August example you linked to. But still it seems the grid is somewhat vulnerable to such risks:

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ear-misses-in-three-months-says-national-grid

Again the example you link to is ALL about frequency not capacity. We have plenty of capacity. There is a good argument to be made we don't have enough frequency response.
This is a strong argument for more Tesla batteries not more gas generators.

As for the effect on a hospital (on another occasion):

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/patients-james-cook-hospital-plunged-13946012

Not enough details in that article, but looks like a very localised incident which has nothing to do with capacity but a local fault exacerbated by a generator failing to start.
If you had a power cut in your house due to a workman drilling outside, then couldn't start your honda generator would that be the national grids fault, would it indicate they had a capacity issue?

I do note you didn't link the later article that states the generator did kick in.

James Cook bosses explain what happened in power cut at site

Patients were plunged into darkness on Thursday night, with reports of nurses using torches

www.gazettelive.co.uk

“The hospital was powered by back-up generators until the mains power was restored and all critical service areas within the hospital had uninterrupted power supply at all times.

“All areas impacted by yesterday’s power cut are back to normal and we’d like to thank our estates team and Carillion who worked hard to ensure full power was restored as quickly and as safely as possible.”

The second line in this indicates it was a problem on the estate itself and nothing to do with the national grid at all. You should be questioning the hospital as to why they had this failure, and why wasn't more done?

And it also affects other infrastructure such as electric trains, which apparently don't restart when the power comes back on and engineers have to be sent out to fix them!

Keep plenty of candles and torches handy, or ... sit it out in your motorhome, where you can even have heating ... gosh, yet another good use!

Some trains, not all trains had this problem. Again not a national grid capacity issue but an engineering issue on those trains. A design flaw maybe or lack of training?


So far you have not convinced me we need more power stations and that our generating capacity is low.

 

[old-mo]

2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?​

.........................................................................................................

Seeing as there will not be a vehicle that will travel with enough electric stored to do the miles I will want to get to a Rally or Campsite...

I will just have to keep moving house... to be nearer where I want to visit...

 

[nicholsong]

2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan?​

.........................................................................................................

Seeing as there will not be a vehicle that will travel with enough electric stored to do the miles I will want to get to a Rally or Campsite...

I will just have to keep moving house... to be nearer where I want to visit...

Plus ca change.

 

[Coolcats]

Oh come on. seriously?

Read what I said. The economics of Hydrogen are limited by physics. I explain the physics so you can see the economic argument.

Yes, Economics change, but as I have explained again and again, the economics, politics, material science and engineering are all constrained by the physics.

I use physics to explain the best case scenario for hydrogen. This then leads to the economics. Hydrogen requires 3X minimum the amount of electric that directly charging a BEV requires.

Do you not follow this? Physics tells us the absolute best case scenario for hydrogen costs. I then use these costs to point out the economics of hydrogen do not work for road transport.

I also pointed out the market economics case against Hydrogen with the catch 22 regarding the distribution network investment required. You again appear to to avoid this point which does have solutions.
You attack the physics which is set in stone, but don't argue or provide a solution for the economics a distribution network.

You dance all over the place but still don't seem to grasp this fundamental concept dictated by physics?

I am not attacking Physics, but technology acceptance and use is multidimensional simply pushing ‘most efficient’ ‘Logical’ arguments does not explain the multitude of products and their application that are in this world. If an organisation took the approach you are using, the Hydrogen development vehicles would never have been produced let alone a Hydrogen Race car, the organisations involved are not stupid and will understand your Maths and much more.

 

[Claire Ambler]

Simple for me.
no new van!!!!
I will be 74 then so will I really want to spend on an electric or hybrid motorhome?

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[glenn2926]

I’ll keep my old van running as long as humanly possible. The last thing I want is a van that only has one heating, cooking, running fuel. Always told not to put all your eggs in one basket.
What happens when something on the electric side fails? No moving, no cooking, no heating. Whereas now if the electrical side fails we can cook with gas, heating on gas hot water on gas. Still able to drive.
If there is only one choice it’s not a choice. What’s to stop the suppliers having a chat with each other and deciding to increase the cost of this electric ten fold? It’s not like there will be any alternative

 

[Peppadog]

No, you won’t. Nor will I as I will be 79.
We will both have plenty of years after that in our old diesel vans before the pumps close down

Oops. No quote

 

[Peppadog]

Simple for me.
no new van!!!!
I will be 74 then so will I really want to spend on an electric or hybrid motorhome?

No, you won’t. Nor will I as I will be 79.
We will both have plenty of years after that in our old diesel vans before the pumps close down

 

[SpeedyDux]

Again the example you link to is ALL about frequency not capacity. We have plenty of capacity. There is a good argument to be made we don't have enough frequency response.
This is a strong argument for more Tesla batteries not more gas generators.



Not enough details in that article, but looks like a very localised incident which has nothing to do with capacity but a local fault exacerbated by a generator failing to start.
If you had a power cut in your house due to a workman drilling outside, then couldn't start your honda generator would that be the national grids fault, would it indicate they had a capacity issue?

I do note you didn't link the later article that states the generator did kick in.

James Cook bosses explain what happened in power cut at site

Patients were plunged into darkness on Thursday night, with reports of nurses using torches

www.gazettelive.co.uk

The second line in this indicates it was a problem on the estate itself and nothing to do with the national grid at all. You should be questioning the hospital as to why they had this failure, and why wasn't more done?


Some trains, not all trains had this problem. Again not a national grid capacity issue but an engineering issue on those trains. A design flaw maybe or lack of training?


So far you have not convinced me we need more power stations and that our generating capacity is low.

The current excess generating capacity doesn't remove the risk of widespread blackouts due to a combination of unforeseen events (and perhaps Enron-style holding back by privately-owned reserve generators hoping to get higher spot prices) as demonstrated by the August blackout we both referred to. What is the explanation if the NG and current fragmented ownership system is so perfect? Incidentally, it seems that Ofgem wants to take control of power distribution away from NG on the basis that NG as owner of generators has a conflict of interest.

Let me clarify as concisely as possible (my insertions in bold).

"So far you have not convinced me we need more Nuclear power stations between now and 2030 - 2050 and that our reserve generating capacity when there is no wind is low and will become even lower in the near future."

 

[RP Steve]

Hydrogen fuel cell seems to be the answer?? Just need filling stations and low cost vehicles . More chance of seeing a flying pig

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[Terry Gill]

One would hope 2nd hand prices would hold up,initially, after 2030, given no new van availability.
Personally, think the thing thats going to potentially create a bigger issue will be the downsizing of the current infrastructure for diesel vehicles. As diesel cars begin to disappear off the road, garage forecourts are going to start withdrawing fuel pumps, to the point where it could become difficult to fill up post 2030. Either through lack of filling stations or indeed the location of those left on some forecourts.
Additionally, its probable that diesel fuel costs will rise, potentially siginificantly, due to either eco tax and refinery costs, due to reduced demand. Transport companies may get some concession on fuel costs, until technology enables fleets to be economically and viablaly replaced?
So, personally, Im not sure whether it might be a case of bailing at the right time?
Could be the case of running what youve got until it either cant be economically repaired and or running costs become extortionate.

Think that’s a far too a pessimistic view. Maybe in 25 years time perhaps.

 

[Coolcats]

Hydrogen fuel cell seems to be the answer?? Just need filling stations and low cost vehicles . More chance of seeing a flying pig

Maybe maybe not, as more and more Hydrogen is used the manufactures will seek out other ways of selling Hydrogen, the more they make the more they sell the bigger the profit. The link to Hydrogen boilers is an example people have oil boilers and once a year may have a thousand litres or more of oil delivered. Hydrogen can be produced locally you do not need a network of pipes, then again you could switch from natural gas to Hydrogen in the same way that the U.K. switched from Coal Gas to Natural Gas.

 

[DiggerDogs]

I expect an increase in value for second hand ones as the rise in cost of new is relentless. Mine was £44k in 2016 now £56k. Add the Fact we are now not in the uk so high import duties and the additional cost of an Electric van the difference will be sooo high it pulls the others up. Just look at the high prices for 2000 ish vans. Sometimes near their purchase price and you can see how flexible the values are deemed to be.

 

[Gromett]

I am not attacking Physics, but technology acceptance and use is multidimensional simply pushing ‘most efficient’ ‘Logical’ arguments does not explain the multitude of products and their application that are in this world. If an organisation took the approach you are using, the Hydrogen development vehicles would never have been produced let alone a Hydrogen Race car, the organisations involved are not stupid and will understand your Maths and much more.

Hydrogen vehicles were developed when Lithium batteries didn't have the energy density necessary to be used in cars and were £1,000's per KWh of storage. Then Hydrogen seemed an obvious alternative to diesel/petrol because it was cheaper than BEV.

Now, Li batteries are £100/KWh of storage the maths has been reversed.

The physics for Li batteries never said they were impossible, it was the economics 15 years ago that made them unpracticable. If Li batteries were still £1,000 per KWh we would still be looking at hydrogen. However, I don't think the government would have banned ICE cars due to the high cost of hydrogen.

how it that for a logical argument?

 

[Gromett]

The current excess generating capacity doesn't remove the risk of widespread blackouts due to a combination of unforeseen events (and perhaps Enron-style holding back by privately-owned reserve generators hoping to get higher spot prices) as demonstrated by the August blackout we both referred to. What is the explanation if the NG and current fragmented ownership system is so perfect? Incidentally, it seems that Ofgem wants to take control of power distribution away from NG on the basis that NG as owner of generators has a conflict of interest.

I NEVER said the current system was perfect. There is always room for improvement and the NG is making massive investments in inertia (for frequency management).

The August blackout was caused by a lightening strike taking out 2 major generators at the same time. No matter what we do this will always result in a regional blackout no matter how much capacity we have. If we were 100% nuclear we would still have had blackouts if 2 had been removed from the grid at the same time. The only difference would be the knock on effects would have been minimised due to the increased inertia in the system. The NG is adding more inertia as we speak.

There are 3 things critical to the national grids operation. Capacity which we have plenty of, frequency management which we are struggling with currently due to the loss of inertia. inertia being the 3rd thing.

Let me clarify as concisely as possible (my insertions in bold).

"So far you have not convinced me we need more Nuclear power stations between now and 2030 - 2050 and that our reserve generating capacity when there is no wind is low and will become even lower in the near future."

You are back to future scenarios which we were not discussing. We were talking about current capacity and network stability. If you want to discuss the future that is a whole other ball of wax.

Currently we have easily enough capacity in the system. This is proven by the fact that the NG can put out emergency requests for bids for capacity and get responses in less than 2 hours. This is done based on predictions 24 hours in advance. If NG thinks/predicts they will fall below the required buffer in the next 24 hours they put this emergency request out. Within a few hours well ahead of the 24 hours deadline they get the bids in and confirm the contracts. This proves that we have the capacity in the grid as capacity cannot be magicked from no where.

As for the future.... Let's keep that as a separate discussion as it is a big one.

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[Gromett]

Maybe maybe not, as more and more Hydrogen is used the manufactures will seek out other ways of selling Hydrogen, the more they make the more they sell the bigger the profit. The link to Hydrogen boilers is an example people have oil boilers and once a year may have a thousand litres or more of oil delivered. Hydrogen can be produced locally you do not need a network of pipes, then again you could switch from natural gas to Hydrogen in the same way that the U.K. switched from Coal Gas to Natural Gas.

You really haven't understood the physics have you?

2 things;

Hydrogen cannot be pumped through the current natural gas lines. This is simply impossible. It can be mixed at low levels with natural gas but it cannot make up 100% of the mix in current pipelines.

By producing hydrogen locally are you suggesting each household has an electrolyser? If so we have back to the science again. It takes 40KWh to get 1KG of hydrogen. 1KG of hydrogen contains 33KW of energy (Heat). Using hydrogen in the manner makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
It would make more sense to just use electric directly either through a resistive heating element or even better use a heatpump which only takes 1KW of electric to produce 4-5KW of heat

 

[IanFraser]

Motorhomes powered on older fuel methods can still be seen occasionally on our roads.

View attachment 442695

And unlike diesel particulate you can see what your breathing in ;-)

 

[joka250]

Will the free world reach 2030? There are totalitarian states sabre rattling even as we speak. Their determination is even greater than the worlds determination to become environmentally friendly. Sorry to be so gloomy.

 

[SpeedyDux]

You are back to future scenarios which we were not discussing. We were talking about current capacity and network stability. If you want to discuss the future that is a whole other ball of wax.


As for the future.... Let's keep that as a separate discussion as it is a big one.

I did raise near future and long term future scenarios in posts #754 and #767. You chose to discuss only the current electricity generation capacity issue. At the time I presumed that, because you didn't challenge my future arguments, basically we were in agreement. It now seems you want to reserve the right to challenge on a different thread, but you didn't say so at the time.

Never mind. I am off to cook my Sunday lunch, and will see if the voltage has been reduced again making it take longer to cook with electricity.

 

[Coolcats]

You really haven't understood the physics have you?

2 things;

Hydrogen cannot be pumped through the current natural gas lines. This is simply impossible. It can be mixed at low levels with natural gas but it cannot make up 100% of the mix in current pipelines.

By producing hydrogen locally are you suggesting each household has an electrolyser? If so we have back to the science again. It takes 40KWh to get 1KG of hydrogen. 1KG of hydrogen contains 33KW of energy (Heat). Using hydrogen in the manner makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
It would make more sense to just use electric directly either through a resistive heating element or even better use a heatpump which only takes 1KW of electric to produce 4-5KW of heat

Gromett the approach you appear to take in Scientific terms is Determinisem, possibly nomological or neccesitarianisem and using ridged laws to take a particular positioning arguing there are no alternatives to this. I am not criticising this approach as it is underpinned by personal beliefs about nature and the world. When I was younger I held the similar beliefs, but whilst these beliefs can be helpful in certain circumstances fortunately we live in a world where other perspectives and approaches exist. There is no one Truth, there are multiple Truths and it will depend upon where you come from.

You state that Hydrogen was pre Lithium, Given that Battery technology has become more available and cheaper (not Cheap) why did Nexus launch a new Hydrogen Car in 2018? and why did Honda do the same in 2015? Why did Aberdeen take delivery and use a Hydrogen Powered Road sweeper?

Put your Physics to one side for the moment and consider and reflect why these companies and organisations have done so...?

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[Gromett]

I did raise near future and long term future scenarios in posts #754 and #767. You chose to discuss only the current electricity generation capacity issue. At the time I presumed that, because you didn't challenge my future arguments, basically we were in agreement. It now seems you want to reserve the right to challenge on a different thread, but you didn't say so at the time.

Never mind. I am off to cook my Sunday lunch, and will see if the voltage has been reduced again making it take longer to cook with electricity.

I am was just responding to your original point which was wrong. You said this.

Exactly. The Grid and generators have barely coped during this current freeze,

If you now accept that this was incorrect and we have enough capacity currently I am happy to move onto a debate about the future I wasn't suggestion a separate thread, just a separate discussion. Mixing the two up confuses the issue and muddies the water.

You said we barely coped during the current freeze, I disagree with this and have given evidence this is not the case. If we now agree that there is enough current capacity I am happy to discuss the future

Not trying to be awkward or confrontational, I just like to clear things up point by point so we are on the same page.

Never mind. I am off to cook my Sunday lunch, and will see if the voltage has been reduced again making it take longer to cook with electricity.

Erm, voltage levels are not reduced by the grid. It is caused by local issues. If you are at the end of a long run of the local distribution network and your next door neighbour(s) suddenly start pulling high current this will pull the voltage down for your leg of the network.

 

[Gromett]

Gromett the approach you appear to take in Scientific terms is Determinisem, possibly nomological or neccesitarianisem and using ridged laws to take a particular positioning arguing there are no alternatives to this. I am not criticising this approach as it is underpinned by personal beliefs about nature and the world. When I was younger I held the similar beliefs, but whilst these beliefs can be helpful in certain circumstances fortunately we live in a world where other perspectives and approaches exist. There is no one Truth, there are multiple Truths and it will depend upon where you come from.

What the heck? You do amuse me. I use physics as the basic grounds of my argument, it is not the be all and end all. I use physics to explain why the economics won't work for instance.

Here is an example for you.

The earth is illuminated by the sun with an energy of 1.36KW/M². This has been measured in multiple ways and is a fact of physics. It is an undeniable truth.

Now my argument would be that based on physics that a 100% efficient solar panel pointing directly at the sun at mid day with a clear sky cannot generate any more than 1.36KW/M².

If you were to make the suggestion that a car covered in solar panels could fully power the car and I were to suggest physics states otherwise. You would get the hump.
You would say material science can improve, economics change and physics is too rigid and there are other alternatives to this. You would point at the solar car that crossed australia as an example that it can work

My assertion is simply that what physics doesn't rule out is entirely possible then we can go onto the economics, practicalities and realities of the solution.

I have NEVER said that physics says hydrogen cars are not possible or practical. They most certainly are possible and practical.

All i have said is physics shows that they require a lot more energy to power them. It is a fact based on physics that to take electric, convert it to hydrogen, ship it across the country, fill a car, then convert that hydrogen back to electric to drive the wheels is going to be less efficient than taking that electric, stuffing into a battery and then have that battery drive the car. I used physics to show the efficiency difference.

Once you understand the efficiency difference you can then look at the economics. If the round trip efficiency of a Lithium battery is 95% meaning if you put in 100KWh you get out 95KWh, and a round trip for Electric->hydrogen->electric is 50% then that 100KWh becomes 50KWh.
The economics of this is obvious. You need to generate double the electric for the hydrogen system as you do for the lithium battery system. That is all the physics says.

I then go onto discuss the economics of building out the hydrogen network. Where a single station will cost £2-3M compared to the £100-200,000 for a battery charger. I asked you who would invest in this network of hydrogen stations if there are no hydrogen cars on the road. I then ask if there are no hydrogen stations who is going to buy hydrogen vehicles? This catch 22 has got nothing at all to do with physics and you never came up with a satisfactory answer.

 

[airwave]

You know i hear this conversation every where , so i'm gonna be brutal here . As i won't have a job , it won't really affected me . Yes , there may be an issue with money , but i really don't think that will be a problem either , as there would be nothing to buy .

I'm a trucker , and this ban affects HGV's as well as cars , vans , whatever . Many of the haulage companies i work for , couldn't afford a change to electric , even If such an animal existed . I only know of one practical electric heavy , but thats still in development . It may or may not be ready for 2030 . It's estimated cost ($300.000) almost rules it out , for any but the most affluent of haulage companies , and trust me there's only a couple of those in this country . There are a few other cheaper sticky plasters around , but their range and weight abilities are simply not up to the job . That would mean the road haulage industry would collapse , and should that happen , i wouldn't be the only one unemployed .

Now i can't see any government allowing any country to go down the pan , in that way , so draw your own conclusions .

And let me leave you with one further thought , eh . Royal Dutch Shell , better known as SHELL petroleum grossed $338.88 billion , in 2019 .

Do you really think they are gonna say , ah well it was good while it lasted ! .

 

[ceejayt]

Given that I have had 4 new vans in less than 3 years, my opinion on the 10 -years-from-now-future should be taken with a sack of salt

but I think if someone had told you in the very early nineties that in 10 years (by 2001) a contraption called an i-pod , the size of a fag packet , would do away with your new-fangled CD collection adorning a wall of your bedroom......AND
that 10 years after that, that the very same i-pod would be worthless as you could store it all on just your phone....and that by 2020
you wouldn’t have a need for a collection because you could “stream anything” ( whatever that would mean in 1990)........

its relentless innit

And if anyone had told you that by 2020 people would be back to buying vinyls (I used to call it an LP or an Album) at hugely inflated prices.....

 

[Gromett]

I'm a trucker , and this ban affects HGV's as well as cars , vans , whatever

The ban is only on cars and vans. doesn't affect HGV's yet.

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[Gromett]

Coolcats

I have just realised something you may not be aware of that might be influencing your position. I apologise if you already know this.

Currently the vast majority of hydrogen is produced by splitting methane (natural gas) via steam reforming. This is a very cheap process and gives pretty cheap hydrogen.
The fossil fuel industry is pushing for hydrogen cars because they hope to keep making money from their investments in fossil fuel. They are looking for funding for carbon capture.

Splitting methane CH4 results in H and CO2. They want to bury the CO2 and keep making money. They call this blue hydrogen >.<

However, for Hydrogen to be truly green it needs to be produced via electrolysis from water using only green electric.

This is what all my previous statements are being based on. The physics relates to the green or clean hydrogen I am talking about. Because of this the physics of splitting water is critical to understanding the final costs.

A lot of car manufacturers thought this was the way it would go with blue hydrogen being very cheap (although not as cheap as petrol).

 

[Gromett]

I have had a look around for a video on hydrogen that is balanced and fair and explains it in enough detail without risking being over the head of the average joe on the street.

This is a pretty good video.



I agree with pretty much all of it, except for a few bits but those are a matter of opinion not of fact so am happy to let them go.

This is pretty much the future I see with hydrogen although I think the depth of penetration won't be quite so much as some of the commentators think.

For instance I don't see trucking being a big destination for the green hydrogen short range and medium range trucks as they will stick with batteries, with only the longest range or trucks dealing with the remotest destinations going with hydrogen.

 

[EuroTrotters]

Money no object. I would buy the best most powerful Diesel engined van around.

as for cars. Why buy a £50,000 plus Phev, electric or similar. When you could buy a big 4.4 lite V8 diesel hauler for less than £20,000 and enjoy it whilst you can.

 

[glenn2926]

Money no object. I would buy the best most powerful Diesel engined van around.

as for cars. Why buy a £50,000 plus Phev, electric or similar. When you could buy a big 4.4 lite V8 diesel hauler for less than £20,000 and enjoy it whilst you can.

A big fat diesel turbo van, a big fat diesel turbo 4x4 and a V8 petrol what ever.
No5 interested on any way in washing machine motors. They’re for doing your washing not driving.

 

[chrisgreen]

A big fat diesel turbo van, a big fat diesel turbo 4x4 and a V8 petrol what ever.
No5 interested on any way in washing machine motors. They’re for doing your washing not driving.

By 2030 you won't be able to afford the fuel to run your big v8's

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