Has the bubble burst

[busby]

And we are to blame! It will be interesting to see what happens when getting diesel becomes a problem.

There will be diesel whilst goods are still delivered in trucks..BUSBY.

 

[SuperMike]

Spare parts? - take bloody ages to arrive from Europe.
How come my eBay parcel from China arrives within a week but a part from Germany takes 5 weeks through a dealer?
We pay a lot of money for our purchase and should expect better in service and after sales in my personal view.

Indeed, I can get any part, and I mean any part sent over by Winnebago Parts, direct to me, within almost a week and not obvious parts either. I lost the centre of the stainless wheel trim when I clipped a cone in France, one week. I wanted two extra wall lights to match existing, one week. I damaged a length of internal wall trim by not paying attention when moving a slide out, 6ft timber piece finished in the required colour, one week. The Auto Transmission Module, the part that controls the gear change, that took 9 days because it had to be programmed to our particular vehicle.

Further, our Winnie has a lift manufactured by Burr Lifts fitted to help disabled Management get in. A week or so after taking delivery the motor became very intermittent but you could get it going by tapping it with a rubber mallet. Hmmmmmmmmm thinks Mike, dodgy connection or more likely a sticking commutator brush. I sends an email to Burr and three days later had heard nothing which displeased me, but later that day there is a ring on the door bell by UPS with a parcel containing a complete replacement motor assembly, no charge.

Perhaps we are just lucky as I just don’t understand the Euro motor home problem.

 

[Jim]

Hubby thinks he read about 15 CL/CS closed in one month this year.

That is pretty normal, as properties change hands and circumstances change. There would have been a similar amount of new ones exempted to take their place. I certainly don't think CLs are in decline

 

[Jaws]

Our nearest Adria dealer, the Family Travel Centre, opened in 2011 but closed its doors in January 2018. Nice people but for some reason we don't know they went bust.

I am sorry to hear it has closed its doors.. One of the partners was a good customer of mine and a really nice chap..
He did mention back in 2014 things were slowing right back then...

As a matter of interest, the motorcycle world although seemingly buoyant with new registrations going well, seems to be very slow in the pre-owned area with stock sitting for some time

 

[Allanm]

Indeed, I can get any part, and I mean any part sent over by Winnebago Parts, direct to me, within almost a week and not obvious parts either. I lost the centre of the stainless wheel trim when I clipped a cone in France, one week. I wanted two extra wall lights to match existing, one week. I damaged a length of internal wall trim by not paying attention when moving a slide out, 6ft timber piece finished in the required colour, one week. The Auto Transmission Module, the part that controls the gear change, that took 9 days because it had to be programmed to our particular vehicle.

Further, our Winnie has a lift manufactured by Burr Lifts fitted to help disabled Management get in. A week or so after taking delivery the motor became very intermittent but you could get it going by tapping it with a rubber mallet. Hmmmmmmmmm thinks Mike, dodgy connection or more likely a sticking commutator brush. I sends an email to Burr and three days later had heard nothing which displeased me, but later that day there is a ring on the door bell by UPS with a parcel containing a complete replacement motor assembly, no charge.

Perhaps we are just lucky as I just don’t understand the Euro motor home problem.

It seems postage from the USA is pretty good nowadays. My Winnebago ( just before we bought it ) needed a new split windscreen.
Ordered from dealer in USA and arrived in just over a week, undamaged.

Luckily, our Burstner hasn’t needed any parts yet, but if it does, it will be interesting to see how long they take to arrive in France from Germany.

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[eddie]

I have been in the industry for about thirty years and there have always been dealers coming and going.

Howards Motorhome Centre is a brand new dealership opened in the last twelve months, getting rave reviews for customer service, and it is part of a massive group of car franchises, so have a customer service frame of mind as a group.

The Motorhome department has a great leader, my Son Simon who has been all over Europe in motorhomes all of his life Simon Howards Motorhomes

Not all dealers are bad, and I have yet to see a good dealer go bust that I can think of?

 

[Cheshirecat57]

I will be asking the Head of Adria UK ( who will be at the NEC selling,selling,selling) why a faulty Truma CP Control panel has taken 4 months to come for a warranty claim, when I can get one on amazon next day if I pay for it

 

[Blue Knight]

Howards Motorhome Centre is a brand new dealership opened in the last twelve months, getting rave reviews for customer service, and it is part of a massive group of car franchises, so have a customer service frame of mind as a group.

Crickey, Eddie; talk about starting up an ultra high risk business at a time in the global financial cycle when the MoHo industry is surfing on the very last crest of the last wave.

That's a bit like me initiating a huge rental house portfolio in Q3,2007 - and we all know what happened a few months later.

 

[tacr2man]

Like any bandwagon if everyone jumps on , eventually the wheels start to buckle , supply and demand sorts it out ! Then its survival of the fittest . I think you can expect resale prices to drop as well .

 

[eddie]

Why do think that there is a bubble and if there is, that it is burst?

As I said dealers go pop, and new ones appear it's been the same for the last 30 years I've worked in the Industry

Same as alarm installers and tracking companies

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[DC4JC]

Has the bubble burst, not quite, but getting there.
Perfect storm is brewing.
As already mentioned, Pension pot tsunami has died down. Diesel has been demonized and further killed off thanks to Volkswagen and the like. Look how that has affected diesel car sales.
The environmentalists voice is growing by the day and its hard to ignore them with things going on around the World. As such more and more governments, cities, towns etc are taking heed and are introducing ( or planning to) restrictions bans etc for vehicles, particularly diesel.
The B word hangs over us and whatever that may bring, causing people, particularly those working, to think about major expenditures.
Theres no doubt thats its going to become more expensive to buy run and own a MH going forward, just look at the posts on here re the 1st September VED tax changes, if they are true.
Once environmental influences begin to have more of an impact on our hobby, who knows how far it will go.
My belief is that we 5 years but less than 10, before our current way of undertaking motorhoming either has to stop or fundamentally change.

 

[chaser]

Has the bubble burst, not quite, but getting there.
Perfect storm is brewing.
As already mentioned, Pension pot tsunami has died down. Diesel has been demonized and further killed off thanks to Volkswagen and the like. Look how that has affected diesel car sales.
The environmentalists voice is growing by the day and its hard to ignore them with things going on around the World. As such more and more governments, cities, towns etc are taking heed and are introducing ( or planning to) restrictions bans etc for vehicles, particularly diesel.
The B word hangs over us and whatever that may bring, causing people, particularly those working, to think about major expenditures.
Theres no doubt thats its going to become more expensive to buy run and own a MH going forward, just look at the posts on here re the 1st September VED tax changes, if they are true.
Once environmental influences begin to have more of an impact on our hobby, who knows how far it will go.
My belief is that we 5 years but less than 10, before our current way of undertaking motorhoming either has to stop or fundamentally change.

How I see it I'm afraid, maybe caravans will have a better do out of it, cheaper to buy no fuel problems or running costs, not for me though.
5 to 10 years will see me out as I suspect many on here.
One branch though I think will survive better is camper vans and self builds among the young touring Europe.

 

[romany]

Motorhomes are more popular than ever before and it's extremely rare for well-managed motorhome companies to go bust. Do we want the poorly managed ones to survive?

Take notice Auto fail

 

[romany]

Why do think that there is a bubble and if there is, that it is burst?

As I said dealers go pop, and new ones appear it's been the same for the last 30 years I've worked in the Industry

Same as alarm installers and tracking companies

For me there is always room for good dealers who understand its their after sales service that builds their reputation, at the moment there is not enough of them about

 

[Blue Knight]

Why do think that there is a bubble and if there is, that it is burst?

I'll use the analogy of the bubble being a hot air balloon and not a bubble as what we first thought.

Sadly, for us, the Brit consumer, the balloon was built with passion, dedication and precision (according to the glossy brochure) but, it was built in the UK, meaning that it's not exactly watertight and therefore probably not air tight either.

This balloon of ours is now sinking amid a cocktail of destructive and harsh winds from both international and domestic shores and now the pilot deems it technically incapable of flying unhindered and is likely to crash and burn soon enough.

In the meantime, the owner of the balloon has gone back to the British balloon converter who has unreservedly declined his warranty claim for a repair, citing a dodgy warranty exclusion T&C to get out of the fix.

We're now just waiting on the basket to hit ground zero......

.......and no red wine was drunk during the writing of this post

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[Puddleduck]

Indeed, I can get any part, and I mean any part sent over by Winnebago Parts,

Back in the late 70s Winnebago were in serious financial trouble. Martin (then a post-graduate student on work placement) was part of the task force that was responsible for the restructure and modernisation of the business from root to tip.

 

[Blue Knight]

Mark Carney on TV 10-seconds ago: "people are not extending themselves and that's the right place to be".

Highly relative to high ticket items etc.

 

[Cheshirecat57]

To be fair Andrew, when Mark Blarney opens his trap....get the pinch of salt ready
His glass is definitely 3/4 empty....

 

[Cheshirecat57]

How I see it I'm afraid, maybe caravans will have a better do out of it, cheaper to buy no fuel problems or running costs, not for me though.
5 to 10 years will see me out as I suspect many on here.
One branch though I think will survive better is camper vans and self builds among the young touring Europe.

I have to agree about CARAVANS, but again the good dealers will do well and hopefully the poor ones will go west

 

[Simon Select]

What an interesting post!
Dad is right, we are the new kids on the block but as a group that turns over 300 million a year we thought we could have a go!
Our reputation so far with 250 motorhomes is 100%, the hard part is trying to maintain that. We tried to be pragmatic when we opened our doors. Look at failings, how can we do things A - Differently and B - Better. The only way we will grow in the motorhome world is by reputation and as a very large car group (Circa 8000) odd a year, our overall customer satisfaction is high 90's which is pretty impressive. However as a group of franchises you have to jump through so many hoops. With car sales, there is no money in it anymore however, the bonus's from manufacturers means dealers can still do very well however: One negative customer satisfaction survey back to the manufacturer can cost the dealer tens of thousands of pounds. Cock up enough and you will lose the franchise. Don't honour warranty work from another dealer, you fail the customer satisfaction survey and lose thousands of pounds. Thats why you can buy a car in Scotland and get warranty work done in Taunton for instance.
With the leisure industry, the manufacturers don't have the same clout. If Swift as an example said to Daves Motorhomes, you will spend £350,000 refitting your showroom to our standards, and you will take on other peoples warranty work, plus you will have a minimum stock level etc etc then Daves Motorhomes will just drop Swift and get Elddis in.
We were genuinely shocked as car dealers how backwards/ cottage/ shocking the leisure industry is. We simply refuse to become like that and we are trying to apply our standards to motorhomes.
We are starting to see the reward now as we have happy customers (Yes we have some hiccups along the way however we jump on them straight away) we also won a national award last month with Adria/ Sunliving.
We have also taken on warranty work from dealers that are terrible/ gone bust or simply won't help. For us its easy as we are big enough to cope with the reduced labour rate, it also helps, that with Bailey for instance, because we have 4 Peugeot dealers in group we can deal with Peugeot directly ourselves and not have to try and find a local Peugeot dealer that happens to have a commercial ramp.
So far we are on 8 motorhomes this week, 6 new and 2 used so I can't complain. I equally though can't talk about the glory days!

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[Blue Knight]

To be fair Andrew, when Mark Blarney opens his trap....get the pinch of salt ready
His glass is definitely 3/4 empty....

Couldn't agree more C. I would have quite happily paid for his first class ticket back to Canada in the last few years; he has been one of the biggest destructive financial influences to this fine country of ours IMO.

I mentioned him because he's one of the offending chaps that ultimately causes the panic in the marketplace - I just didn't explain myself properly; must try harder

 

[sueandjohn]

Motorhome dealers and campsite owners are pricing themselves out of business, with all the cheap holidays abroad , younger people are not going to fork out 10s of thousands of pounds to sit in a rainy field at a greater cost than they can b&b in the sun.
Most older people have done it for years and it's a way of life, certainly not cheap holidays and this older generation have give up I think there will be a swift decline in motorhomes.
Only my take on it, others probably disagree.

Yes I agree . My son and family say they could have had a luxury fly holiday in a hotel for the same price as driving to sw France and parking in a field (admittedly a luxury field) but still parked !

 

[Blue Knight]

What an interesting post!
Dad is right, we are the new kids on the block but as a group that turns over 300 million a year we thought we could have a go!
Our reputation so far with 250 motorhomes is 100%, the hard part is trying to maintain that. We tried to be pragmatic when we opened our doors. Look at failings, how can we do things A - Differently and B - Better. The only way we will grow in the motorhome world is by reputation and as a very large car group (Circa 8000) odd a year, our overall customer satisfaction is high 90's which is pretty impressive. However as a group of franchises you have to jump through so many hoops. With car sales, there is no money in it anymore however, the bonus's from manufacturers means dealers can still do very well however: One negative customer satisfaction survey back to the manufacturer can cost the dealer tens of thousands of pounds. Cock up enough and you will lose the franchise. Don't honour warranty work from another dealer, you fail the customer satisfaction survey and lose thousands of pounds. Thats why you can buy a car in Scotland and get warranty work done in Taunton for instance.
With the leisure industry, the manufacturers don't have the same clout. If Swift as an example said to Daves Motorhomes, you will spend £350,000 refitting your showroom to our standards, and you will take on other peoples warranty work, plus you will have a minimum stock level etc etc then Daves Motorhomes will just drop Swift and get Elddis in.
We were genuinely shocked as car dealers how backwards/ cottage/ shocking the leisure industry is. We simply refuse to become like that and we are trying to apply our standards to motorhomes.
We are starting to see the reward now as we have happy customers (Yes we have some hiccups along the way however we jump on them straight away) we also won a national award last month with Adria/ Sunliving.
We have also taken on warranty work from dealers that are terrible/ gone bust or simply won't help. For us its easy as we are big enough to cope with the reduced labour rate, it also helps, that with Bailey for instance, because we have 4 Peugeot dealers in group we can deal with Peugeot directly ourselves and not have to try and find a local Peugeot dealer that happens to have a commercial ramp.
So far we are on 8 motorhomes this week, 6 new and 2 used so I can't complain. I equally though can't talk about the glory days!

With such a positive attitude like that then you really do deserve to survive and, more importantly be one of the market leaders that simple punters like me can rely on.

These next few months will test the business resilience of some dealer hierarchical echelons while stress testing the financial health of each business at the same time, including the willingness of some bosses to dip into their cash reserves should they be brave enough to do so.

IMO the NEC show in October will become the first true appriasal of customer confidence in the motorhome industry, just like a pre-KPI for the MY20 market but, even that may be slightly obscured by any global sudden financial changes in Q1,20 onwards. Only time will tell.

That said, a £300Mn Group annual TO is not a huge capacity when dealing with such high ticket items and it's whether the board are prepared to distribute its finances across the various legs of the business to help make it survive.

In my previous industry, prior to my recent retirement; the corporate risk team would always hold back a few 'disposable' projects which could be sacrificed in the event of an adverse change in the market trend. If we lost a few hundred million USD in one month then we would try and make it up in the next, and so on. If things went badly after a further few months then the axe would be wielded and the chopping began.

If your business consists mainly of car franchises and only one MoHo arm then that does place a huge pressure on the MoHo Team to make it pay well in the short term.

I do wish you all the best since your attitude deserves success.

Regards,

Andrew

 

[Simon Select]

With such a positive attitude like that then you really do deserve to survive and, more importantly be one of the market leaders that simple punters like me can reply on.

These next few months will test the business resilience of some dealer hierarchical echelons while stress testing the financial health of each business at the same time, including the willingness of some bosses to dip into their cash reserves should they be brave enough to do so.

IMO the NEC show in October will become the first true appriasal of customer confidence in the motorhome industry, just like a pre-KPI for the MY20 market but, even that may be slightly obscured by any global sudden financial changes in Q1,20 onwards. Only time will tell.

That said, a £300Mn Group annual TO is not a huge capacity when dealing with such high ticket items and it's whether the board are prepared to distribute its finances across the various legs of the business to help make it survive.

In my previous industry, prior to my recent retirement; the corporate risk team would always hold back a few 'disposable' projects which could be sacrificed in the event of an adverse change in the market trend. If we lost a few hundred million USD in one month then we would try and make it up in the next, and so on. If things went badly after a further few months then the axe would be wielded and the chopping began.

If your business consists mainly of car franchises and only one MoHo arm then that does place a huge pressure on the MoHo Team to make it pay well in the short term.

I do wish you all the best since your attitude deserves success.

Regards,

Andrew

Thank you Andrew for your kind comments. I will look forward to meeting you in the future no doubt!

Simon

 

[chaser]

It's not only the price of the van, if you discount that as you will get so much back but say depreciation at £1000 a year, diesel probably getting on for another £1000 ,tax and insurance services another £1000 , all that is before you get anywhere probably another grand if you use sites, and food, that's all looking on the low side, where could you go for four grand get fed and watered and not have to empty your own toilet, now god forbid my usual knockers to say I'm a miserable old bugger because we do it and enjoy it, but can't see many young ones seeing it that way they just want comfort and all done for them.
Just how I see it.

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[jearing]

The trouble with this country is it is overpopulated to many wealthy pensioners greed on the part of dealerships,I believe we are seeing the decline in motorhoming due to the diesel/petrol engine ban in 2030 with the increase in the GREEN protests taking place weekly we will all be walking everywhere.

 

[bluebob]

What an interesting post!
Dad is right, we are the new kids on the block but as a group that turns over 300 million a year we thought we could have a go!
Our reputation so far with 250 motorhomes is 100%, the hard part is trying to maintain that. We tried to be pragmatic when we opened our doors. Look at failings, how can we do things A - Differently and B - Better. The only way we will grow in the motorhome world is by reputation and as a very large car group (Circa 8000) odd a year, our overall customer satisfaction is high 90's which is pretty impressive. However as a group of franchises you have to jump through so many hoops. With car sales, there is no money in it anymore however, the bonus's from manufacturers means dealers can still do very well however: One negative customer satisfaction survey back to the manufacturer can cost the dealer tens of thousands of pounds. Cock up enough and you will lose the franchise. Don't honour warranty work from another dealer, you fail the customer satisfaction survey and lose thousands of pounds. Thats why you can buy a car in Scotland and get warranty work done in Taunton for instance.
With the leisure industry, the manufacturers don't have the same clout. If Swift as an example said to Daves Motorhomes, you will spend £350,000 refitting your showroom to our standards, and you will take on other peoples warranty work, plus you will have a minimum stock level etc etc then Daves Motorhomes will just drop Swift and get Elddis in.
We were genuinely shocked as car dealers how backwards/ cottage/ shocking the leisure industry is. We simply refuse to become like that and we are trying to apply our standards to motorhomes.
We are starting to see the reward now as we have happy customers (Yes we have some hiccups along the way however we jump on them straight away) we also won a national award last month with Adria/ Sunliving.
We have also taken on warranty work from dealers that are terrible/ gone bust or simply won't help. For us its easy as we are big enough to cope with the reduced labour rate, it also helps, that with Bailey for instance, because we have 4 Peugeot dealers in group we can deal with Peugeot directly ourselves and not have to try and find a local Peugeot dealer that happens to have a commercial ramp.
So far we are on 8 motorhomes this week, 6 new and 2 used so I can't complain. I equally though can't talk about the glory days!

Great post Simon and wish you well. Hope your hard work and great attitude means your business keeps growing and you really do give the industry the shake that it needs

 

[eddie]

The trouble with this country is it is overpopulated to many wealthy pensioners greed on the part of dealerships,I believe we are seeing the decline in motorhoming due to the diesel/petrol engine ban in 2030 with the increase in the GREEN protests taking place weekly we will all be walking everywhere.

Where is this proof that we are seeing a decline in motorhoming?

I am in the motorhome business, and we also own a campsite, both are extremely busy, as busy, if not busier than we have ever been.

Last weekend we went to Ladys Mile campsite and met another of my Son's who is in the industry JamesJohnsCross We had probably the last two hardstanding super pitches left and at over £70 a night the site was crammed packed full!

We had booked Ladys Mile as James, Kate and our two young Grandchildren could only book their previous site in Cornwall for three days midweek as it was fully booked.

We as a company don't exhibit at open air shows so don't really know about them, but we are already preparing for the NEC show in October and I happen to know that there is a waiting list near on 180 exhibitors desperate to be able to get a "foot in the door"

New dealerships opening up, new 2020 models The RV manufacturer, Thor Industries the snapping up Hymer group, Dometic expanding into loads of new products I just don't see a downturn

 

[Simon Select]

Great post Simon and wish you well. Hope your hard work and great attitude means your business keeps growing and you really do give the industry the shake that it needs

Thank you!

 

[PeteH]

That is pretty normal, as properties change hands and circumstances change. There would have been a similar amount of new ones exempted to take their place. I certainly don't think CLs are in decline

Put it this way, the CM-HC Site guide is not getting any thinner, nor the CCC one either?.

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